Lavender’s Blue

Duke of Cambridge Stakes

14/1 (BetVictor, UniBet)

An obvious case of the market being wrong on the most obvious form line in the contest.

The front pair in the market here, Lady Bowthorpe and Queen Power, were first and second in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket and have gone on to boost that form with excellent subsequent efforts.

I don’t deny they should be where they are in the market, but if they are fair prices at 2/1 and 9/2, then the 14/1 about Dahlia third Lavender’s Blue is just an error.

There was nothing between the trio with 50 yards to run at Newmarket, and the margins at the line were a head and a neck, with Indie Angel and Posted well-beaten in fourth and fifth.

The betting gap between Lavender’s Blue and the pair who beat here should be much narrower than the gap to the pair she beat easily at Newmarket, but some books have her at the same price as Posted.

Amanda Perrett’s mare needed the run when only seventh in this last year, and leaving that run aside, her record away from soft ground at a mile reads 1133213. She ought to be no bigger than half her current odds all things considered.

Grove Ferry

Royal Hunt Cup

16/1 (Skybet, Hills, BetVictor)

Grove Ferry went in my notebook after the Lincoln where he did too much near the front end in a race where the winner came from well off the pace, and at a meeting where the front runners were disadvantaged by running into a headwind on the straight track.

He didn’t take long to justify that note when winning at Chester’s May meeting, but subsequent events show that winning form to be even better than it looked.

A slow start at Chester meant that David Probert had to sit and suffer on Andrew Balding’s handicapper, and he then had to switch off the inside to challenge, only to see the gap in front of him close.

Switched again to the outer of the field, he quickened smartly to get the better of Dulas, with Kynren running on for third.

Both of those horses won their next assignments, while unplaced trio Ejtilaab, Another Batt, and Ascension have also landed handicaps subsequently.

The bottom line is that the Chester form is red-hot and Grove Ferry won with something in hand, so with hold-up tactics hopefully employed again, he looks sure to play a big part despite going up 4lb for that victory.

Albaflora

Hardwicke Stakes – 16/1 (general)

I’m keen to see Albaflora run over the course and distance where she spreadeagled her rivals in the Buckhounds Stakes on her return. That form looked too good to be true at the time, with the runner-up a 50/1 shot and the third beaten 14½ lengths.

Well, the notion that her win was a fluke went up in flames when runner-up Tribal Craft absolutely bolted up in a Group 3 on her next start, while Outbox built on his fourth at Ascot with a much closer fourth in the Tapster Stakes at Goodwood.

A revision of the Buckhounds Stakes based on those two runs alone would put Albaflora on top of the ratings for the Hardwicke, but the ‘freak result’ logic remains in place for now.

The selection was below her Ascot form in the Coronation Cup, but simply didn’t act at Epsom, and was far from disgraced in the circumstances.

She doesn’t need soft ground, and that may also have an impact on her price, as she was backed into 4/1 for the Coronation Cup, making 16/1 for this Group 2 look very generous.