12:55 Boylesports Houghton Mares’ Chase (Listed) 2m 3f 200y
Zambella is impossible to oppose here given the ground is likely to be heavy. Her record short of three miles on ground described as soft or heavy reads 11121111, whereas main rival Pink Legend – although successful on heavy ground earlier in her career, has a less impressive record on soft or worse over fences of 14F24P6F3.
The selection has won the last two runnings of this contest and should have no trouble making it three. Pink Legend is very short given her patchy record in the mud, and likely outsider Burrows Diamond makes more appeal for the forecast spot.
2:05 Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 3m 1f 188y
Stuart Crawford holds a stronger hand in the Becher than the odds imply. Now Where Or When hasn’t fired on his last two starts but ran the race of his life when a close third to Kemboy and Vanillier in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February, and that effort is backed up by an excellent timefigure.
It’s perhaps not surprising that he bounced from that run in the Irish Grand National next time, but he’s got a big chance if refinding that form, and merely had a spin around behind Captain Guinness in the Fortria Chase last time.
At an even bigger price, I like the chances of stablemate Dorking Cock, who is out of the handicap, but underestimated on the pick of his hunter chase form. He would have beaten Vaucelet at Down Royal on St Stephen’s Day but for Ben Crawford going for his stick on the run-in.
Dorking Cock is a tricky ride and hates the whip, but he’s a sound jumper who will be suited by the deep ground and is better than he showed at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring.
He warmed up for this by winning over hurdles at Navan last time, and is capable of springing a shock.
2:40 Boylesports Daily Money Back 2nd Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) 2m 209y
Jane Williams is an excellent trainer of juveniles, and if she enters one in a graded event first time, I sit up and take notice.
That was the case with Knight Of Allen at Cheltenham last month but he was unlucky to be carried out after the first hurdle. Williams’s juveniles usually lack the flat experience of her rivals, so tend to improve much more from first to second start.
Indeed, backing all of her horses on their second start has been profitable since she took out a licence on her own, and since November last year, the form figures of her horses second time out reads 11122301.
A recent example is another three-year-old hurdler in Captain Marvellous, who ran with promise when runner-up on his racecourse bow at Kempton but improved around a stone to score by 23 lengths there a few weeks late, showing useful form.
If Knight Of Allen is better than Captain Marvellous - and the fact he’s the one sent down the blacktype route would suggest he’s held in higher regard - then he would have every chance of winning this, and despite not getting very far at Cheltenham, he’s bound to have derived some benefit from having a day out at the races.
3:15 Boylesports Extra Place Races Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
Rafferty’s Return is best suited by soft ground and a flat track, and he looks overpriced here having returned to form when seven lengths third of 10 to Bashers Reflection at Wetherby last time. The winner of that race is disputing favouritism here, but Becky Menzies’s charge is 8lb better off for that seven-length beating last time, and therefore weighted to finish alongside that rival.
I’d obviously give Bashers Reflection a little extra credit for winning, but Rafferty’s Return is four times the price, and that is too big for me, especially with the Menzies horses running into form at the right time.
1:15 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) 1m 7f 216y
How many will start is the interesting question here, with Goshen, Not So Sleepy and Shishkin all having the potential to plant themselves at the start. That’s actually harshest on Goshen, who could benefit most from the bottomless conditions and makes a degree of each way appeal at around 10/1 to be second to Constitution Hill.
In truth, the race should be all about the favourite, who gained his first two wins over course and distance on deep ground, so ought to have no excuses on the day, for all Nico de Boinville will want to ensure he has an easy race with the Christmas Hurdle on the horizon.
1:50 Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y
JPR One is the likeliest winner of the Henry VIII given he would have run out a commanding winner of a strong novice at Cheltenham but for losing his footing on landing at the final fence.
He had jumped very well throughout and his fall was typical of the track with the alignment of the fences in the straight at Cheltenham’s old course continuing to look less practical than in the old days when the second last was before the home turn.
That fence used to catch the occasional horse out, but the new positioning means horses don’t really have time to measure either of the fences in the straight properly, and the proportion of errors is higher now than it ever was when this “problem” was first highlighted.
There are no such problems at Sandown, for all it is a real test of a novice, and I’d expect JPR One to come through the test with flying colours.
2:25 Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 216y
Once again, I think the key here isn’t in the recent form, but in an ability to handle very testing ground, and for that reason I make Red Rookie a decent bet, as Emma Lavelle’s chaser is unbeaten in three runs on officially heavy ground, and four if going by Timeform’s assessment of the ground, which is much more reliable than that given out by racecourse officials.
The pick of his efforts suggest he has a bit to find, but his best effort since switching to fences came on the one occasion he’s encountered heavy ground and would be more than a match for his earlier hurdles form.
On that basis I reckon he’ll not only be in his element, but also capable of producing a career best over the smaller obstacles,
3:00 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y
Jonbon ought to win, but the performance of the Henderson horses over the last week does not inspire confidence at the prices, and I’ve already had a small interest on Haddex Des Obeaux, who is a horse I think can go all the way as a chaser.
He missed the Arkle due to a minor setback but looked at least as good as ever until falling at the last at Cheltenham on his return, and he should be all the better for that run, which came at a time when Gary Moore’s horses were struggling.
I’m hoping the stable’s upturn in fortunes is confirmed over the weekend, and this six-year-old is open to stacks of improvement after just a handful of chase starts, having impressed with his fluent jumping technique when winning at Doncaster and Warwick.
He copes really well with testing ground, and is worth backing each-way or in the “without favourite” market.
3:35 Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase 3m 4f 146y
Beauport was the winner of the EBF Final on heavy ground here as a novice hurdler and made the perfect start over fences when winning the Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle.
He has been a little overrated on the back of that win, but is now getting some leeway from the assessor, and was noted doing good late work on his return at Ascot without being given a hard time.
He will revel in conditions and although his stamina is unproven for marathon trips, he always shaped like a thorough stayer over hurdles.
Zambella 12:55 Aintree – 3pts win @ 11/8 (general)
Dorking Cock 2:05 Aintree – 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365 – 4 places)
Knight Of Allen 2:40 Aintree – 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (general)
Red Rookie 2:25 Sandown – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral – 4 places)
Haddex Des Obeaux 3:00 Sandown – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (general)