Cheltenham Saturday
12:40 John Wyke Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 3m 1f 56y
Everything’sontick could be underestimated in this handicap and was the subject of bullish reports before winning handsomely at Leicester on his chase debut. He jumped really well that day to see off Animal by two lengths and the runner-up helped advertise the form when scoring at Sandown a week ago.
The handicapper has raised Lawney Hill’s rangy gelding by 4lb for his Leicester win, which looks generous, and the fact that Lawney is taking on the big stables here is not only encouraging in terms of the message it sends (The Hills don’t call their geese swans), but also in terms of the likely value on offer, with punters likely to prefer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls representatives as a rule.
1:15 Quintessentially Handicap Chase 2m 62y
Aucunrisque was disappointing when a strong fancy at Ascot last time in the race won by Boothill, but he was having just his second start since the spring and faded in the straight as if the outing was still needed.
That’s surprising given Chris Gordon can usually get them ready after a break, but the Betfair Hurdle winner has plenty of class and looks really well treated on the form he showed last term over fences, the highlight being when he pushed Boothill hard in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad at Kempton.
That form has twice been boosted by the winner under big weights, and while it takes a leap of faith to back Aucunrisque again after fluffing his lines last time, he’s simply too well treated to ignore.
Inexcelsis Deo and Calico are closely matched on course form this season, but the former will be better suited by the New Course, and he finished well when third to Dancing On My Own here in October, with the hold-up tactics employed that day a disadvantage.
He’s the one most likely to take advantage if Aucunrisque once again fails to find his 2022/’23 form.
1:50 Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2m 4f 127y
Torn And Frayed was my selection at big odds in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but my confidence was dented by the overnight rain which rendered the ground very testing, so I was really encouraged to see how well he shaped before falling at the second last when still in the leading group although starting to tire on the back of a lengthy absence, all in all, looking as if he retained all of his old ability.
Torn and Frayed had won a Grade 3 handicap over course and distance when last seen in January 2022, and a drop of 3lb for his Paddy Power effort sees him just 2lb above that mark.
He wants good to soft ground but not an absolute bog and should have ideal conditions with the soft ground at Cheltenham likely to ease back to dead with a clear forecast.
I’ve backed him ante-post and am happy to step in again despite the presence of Fakir d’Oudairies at the head of the weights forcing him out of the handicap.
That wasn’t part of the plan, negating the drop he got for his latest run, but it will help his price and he will be fitter after that spin, even if it ended prematurely.
2:25 Favourite From The Sun Now Daily Handicap Chase
3m 2f
Once again, a classy topweight means my main selection is just out of the weights here, but the price compensates for that, and I’ll not let it put me off.
Easy As That was also engaged in the December Gold Cup until declarations were made, and is of significant interest after a hugely eye-catching display.
Held up out the back in a race where the principals were always well placed, he disappeared from view as the camera focused on the leaders in the straight, but stayed on late to finish sixth, faring much the best of the hold-up horses.
He was ridden as if a mid-field finish was the best expectation, and Charlie Deutsch didn’t exactly set about him in the latter stages. A winner over an extended two miles and five furlongs last term, he has been dropped a generous 3lb for his efforts.
He will be much better suited by the New Course, although that’s complicated by the big step up in trip. He will certainly relish three miles, and the extra couple of furlongs are taken on trust.
Broadway Boy is also sure to run well, and it wasn’t easy to desert him, with the odds being the deciding factor. If Easy As That fails to stay, I’d expect the Twiston-Davies novice to take advantage after a couple of meritorious performances at around three miles on the Old Course this autumn.
3:00 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Bristol)
(Grade 2) 2m 7f 213y
Although ostensibly out of form, John McConnell remains a trainer to keep on side, for all backing his horses blind is not recommended.
There have been plenty of heavy losses in recent weeks and months for McConnell, but the vast majority of those runs have come from horses seemingly unfancied in the market and ignoring those sent off at 20/1 or bigger in the betting shows a different picture.
Of his last 50-odd runners, only eight have gone off at 20/1 or shorter at Betfair SP, and those have produced form figures of 32401211.
That leads me to believe that Moon d’Orange can hit the frame here, and the Spanish Moon gelding ran his best race when third to Will Do over two miles and seven furlongs at Thurles last time.
I liked the way he rallied after the last that day, and while there are more likely winners here, I expect him to stay on into a place up the final climb.
Everything’sontick 12:40 Cheltenham – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)
Aucunrisque 1:15 Cheltenham – 1pt win @ 7/1 (general)
Torn And Frayed 1:50 Cheltenham – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (general – 4 places)
Easy As That 2:25 Cheltenham – 1pt win @ 11/2 (SkyBet – 5/1 general)