Newcastle Saturday

1.45 williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap 6f

The case for Justanotherbottle here is not immediately compelling with the seven-year-old’s only win since joining Kevin Ryan coming in a heavy ground handicap at Catterick, but despite finishing well held on both all-weather starts, he looks to be fully effective on the surface, with a lack of fitness excusing weak finishing on both occasions.

The run to note is his reappearance here last year where he showed bright speed from a low draw to lead Glen Shiel for well over four furlongs, looking third best in the race before tiring and losing several places in the last 100 yards.

Given Glen Shiel won the Group 3 Chipchase on this card on his next start, and he was only conceding 1lb to the selection, that run – given the excuses over draw and fitness – begins to look very good.

Poor run

The selection was back to form when runner-up at Pontefract on his penultimate start, and is 9lb better off with Mondammej, who beat him two and a quarter lengths there. A poor run at York last time needs forgiving, but he never looked happy after the first couple of furlongs there, and it was found subsequently that he had lost a shoe. He has form on the Knavesmire, but it’s interesting that on his last five starts there he has recorded figures of 00900, and he could simply be out of love with the place.

Either way, I’d expect him to bounce back now, and he’s a point-and-shoot job coming from a favourable draw, meaning that he should prove a straightforward ride for his promising 7lb claimer Oisin McSweeney, and that claim could be crucial.

The last three runnings of this race have seen high numbers dominate, with the first two home drawn 10-13-10-13-14-12 in order. Stall 13, therefore looks perfect, and further proof of the notion that this track and trip will suit is provided by sire Intense Focus’s track record, with 11 course wins coming at a rate around 1.5 times more than market expectation.

2.20 William Hill Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) 6f

The market leaders, Diligent Harry and Khuzaam are interesting here, the former quietly fancied for the Commonwealth Cup before the rain arrived, and the latter dropping back from a mile, but a strong traveller with a sharp turn of pace, who may prove even better at this trip.

The low draw for Diligent Harry is a concern, however and preference is for Roger Varian’s All-Weather Mile Championship winner. He readily left Mum’s Tipple for dead when winning at Lingfield, and that despite looking unbalanced in the straight.

On that evidence, the stiff six here should suit him very well, and while he flopped behind Palace Pier at Sandown, is simply not the same horse on turf, making this look like something of a long-range target.

Rank outsider

Of the others, it’s possible to make a case for most, but it’s the rank outsider who appeals as being of most interest at the prices. Like Khuzaam, Pholas was a winner on All-Weather Finals day at Lingfield, where she produced a devastating kick to spring a shock in the Fillies’ & Mares’ Championship. She was below form on her next few starts on turf, but was right back to her best when a one-and-a-quarter-length fifth of 18 to Lola Showgirl in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last week.

The drop back to six furlongs is hardly ideal on that evidence, but I thought she travelled really well and actually flattened out in the last 100 yards, so would say the mile stretched here, and she could grab a place here at a massive price, looking one with plenty more to offer at pattern level.

2.55 William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap 2m 56yds

The expectation here is that low numbers should hold sway in a big field handicap, but the figures suggest not. In the past decade, there have been 43 races of 10 or more runners over course and distance, and the inside two stalls have won just once apiece.

Backing all of those in the highest third of the draw at SP has produced profits of £1,770 to a tenner stake, however, and high is arguably the way to go.

Tricky character

In the two runnings of this race with a similar field size, the winners have come from stalls 19 and 16, with places from stalls 20 and 18 as well. One of those winners was Cosmelli, and Gay Kelleway’s charge – a tricky character elsewhere – saves his best for this course and distance, and since his 2018 win in this consolation, he’s been a close fourth and fifth in the last two runnings of the Plate itself.

His last two runs have been respectable, but he is better given a big-field scenario, and he can get back to the form he showed here a year ago having dropped below the mark he scored off here in July last year. Stall 15 is a positive, and it’s hard to see him finishing out of the frame if in his usual frame of mind with the race sure to set up nicely for him.

3.30 William Hill Northumberland Plate Handicap 2m 56yds

I was gutted when Alan King pulled Trueshan out of last week’s Gold Cup as I thought he was sure to have gone very close, and even though he has top weight here, he is a proper Group 1 stayer, and has nothing to fear from any of his rivals if proving fully effective here.

His only previous Tapeta run saw him beat last year’s Northumberland Plate winner Caravan Of Hope on just his second start, so it’s fair to say he should have no issues with the surface, and the stiff track is also ideal for a horse who absolutely rinsed his rivals in a de-facto Group 1 at Ascot in October.

Rhys Clutterbuck has developed into a cool-headed and tactically astute apprentice who has plenty of all-weather experience, and the 5lb he claims means that the selection only has to concede 18lb to his lowest-weighted rival. They say weight stops trains, but in my experience it’s more likely to be leaves on the track, or the wrong kind of snow. Class horses win handicaps, and there are few classier stayers in Britain than Alan King’s son of Planteur.

Newmarket Saturday

2.05 Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 6f

Not a race to go overboard about with a few seeking quick compensation for defeat at Royal Ascot. The one who makes most appeal on that basis is Desert Dreamer, who failed to give her running in the Queen Mary, but was impressive in winning her previous starts here. She is taken to get back to winning ways at a course which clearly suits her ideally.

2.40 Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) 1m 4f

Logician looks a favourite to oppose in the Fred Archer, and is seemingly not the same horse since colic surgery – hardly a surprising conclusion given how close he came to losing his life before his brief 2020 return.

Outbox has been running consistently at a similar level, and the balance of his form doesn’t leave him with much to find, so he makes a fair degree of appeal with the favourite a false price.

3.15 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) 7f

He’s well-found in the market, but gelding and dropping to seven furlongs has clearly had a beneficial effect on Kinross, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t be even better suited by Newmarket than Haydock given his hugely impressive racecourse debut here as a juvenile.

He looks to be drawn in the perfect place, too, as Lord of The Lodge is likely to blaze a trail from the stall next door, and the advice here is to keep it simple.

Recommended

Justanotherbottle 1.45 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Hills, 5 places or Bet365)

Pholas 2.20 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (general – 4 places)

Cosmelli 2.55 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365 – 16/1 general)

Trueshan 3.30 Newcastle – 2pts win @ 5/1 (BetVictor, 9/2 general)