Ascot Saturday

1.35 Ascot Underwriting Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) 2m 2f 175yds

A few of these have the potential to take high rank over fences, and while Kid Commando, an impressive winner on this card last year, is the right favourite, it’s debatable whether he’s the right price, and this looks a harder race than the one he won over hurdles 12 months ago. He’s likely to take the field along, and he jumped soundly when winning a Quakerstown point back in the day, so it will probably take a smart prospect to beat him.

Prospects

Smart prospects aren’t in short supply here, although I’m not sure where we stand with Solo, who was harshly handicapped as a juvenile hurdler, but has been given some chance by the handicapper.

Sam Barton and Sizable Sam are chasers in appearance, and should progress in this sphere, while Nassalam is useful and gets a 10lb four-year-old allowance, which makes him of interest.

The one who appeals at the prices, however, is Martin Pipe fourth Whatsupwithyou, who hails from the Ben Pauling yard which has struggled for consistency in the last two seasons.

Pauling has finally emerged from the gloom with some impressive recent results, and his charge showed his ability to go well fresh, and his liking for Ascot by springing a surprise on his hurdles bow here in December 2019.

He failed to win last term, but his Cheltenham effort was a fine one, and he is also a point winner, and ought to go well on his chase bow.

2.10 Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 1m 7f 152yds

The big question at this Ascot meeting is how much rain will fall, and the forecast suggests up to 12mm on ground already on the dead side. That will make it genuinely soft, and there are a few here who won’t appreciate that.

One who certainly will, and who should also benefit from the likely strong pace is Harry Fry’s unbeaten Boothill, who is eligible for this contest despite only one run over hurdles because he is no longer a novice.

As such the handicapper has limited evidence to judge him on, but his Kempton bumper win has proven very strong form, and he won easily at Taunton on his sole start over hurdles, looking a high-class jumper in the making.

The runner-up disappointed subsequently, but the third and fourth were previous winners, and the decision to pull his rating down from 137 to 135 based on collateral form looks generous.

He obviously lacks experience for a race like this, but he’s an exciting prospect whose main rivals are not certain to enjoy conditions.

One to consider against him is Megan, who was looking the winner when falling early in the straight at Chepstow last time in the race won by Progressive, and she impressed on heavy ground on her debut at Leicester last season.

That was a tough race which left a mark, but she showed she was over that when cruising through to dispute the lead in that traditionally informative four-year-old handicap hurdle, and she is clearly on a fair mark with the handicapper unable to adjust her rating.

2.45 Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 167yds

Amoola Gold needs consideration as he bids to follow up last year’s win under Bridget Andrews, but he’s a stone higher in the weights, and needs a career best to score.

The ground has seemingly come right for Grey Diamond, and he is another Sam Thomas chaser who starts the season looking well treated.

Thomas has sent out just four runners over fences since the end of August, and they have achieved form figures reading 1211, and all of those have been owned or part owned by Ffos Las supremo Dai Walters. The trainer is clearly taking all measures to ensure his high-profile inmates only run when ready to do themselves justice, and that is a valuable aid to punters.

Grey Diamond impressed, particularly with his jumping, when beating the well-touted Dostal Phil on Imperial Cup day at Sandown, and I prefer to judge him on that rather than a creditable fifth behind three of these rivals in the Red Rum Chase at Aintree.

It could be argued that he was found out up in class at Liverpool, but I didn’t think he gave his true running, albeit not disgraced, and he can prove that point by turning the tables on Editeur Du Gite, Sully D’Oc and Frero Banbou here.

3.20 Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 7f 180yds

Top-weight Vinndication is sure to go well given he’s unbeaten at Ascot, and he was looked after last season by Kim Bailey. I’d not want to lay him here, but I will be taking an each-way punt at a much bigger price. Glen Forsa lost his way for Mick Channon last season, and Channon – while close to the top of my list of dinner-party guests – would not make my top 10 trainers of chasers, having a rather unorthodox approach to the pursuit.

Sold by previous owner Tim Radford after failing to take to the Grand National fences in the spring, Glen Forsa now runs under the Merriebelle Farm livery, and has joined an in-form trainer in Charlie Longsdon.

Chase form

If he can rediscover his old chase form, he would look very well treated here. A Grade 2 winner as a novice, he ran very well to be a close third to Oldgrangewood in a handicap chase at Newbury on his only 2019/20 outing.

That came off a mark of 150, and he was trying to concede 15lb to a horse who went on to be placed off 12lb higher at the Cheltenham Festival.

He lost his way after a heavy fall in the Haldon Gold Cup last season, but resumes off a 17lb lower mark, and if he’s going to bounce back, I fancy it will be first time up for new connections.

Wetherby Saturday

2.30 Bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (West Yorkshire Hurdle) 3m 26yds

The outcome of this race depends to a large extent on the fitness and well-being of Paisley Park, who is more than capable of conceding 6lb to his rivals, but may well be short of fitness given he’s tended to look burly in his reappearance in previous seasons.

One who certainly won’t lack for fitness is Indefatigable, who proved most game when winning on her belated flat debut at Pontefract recently, surging through late having given her main rivals first run.

She’s an enormously likable mare, and it’s a credit to connections that she’s running here rather than picking lower-hanging fruit in the mares’ event.

She’s yet to conclusively prove she gets three miles, but it wasn’t lack of stamina which saw her unplaced in the Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle in the spring, and she gives the impression that she will have no problems with the trip around this sharp track.

3.05 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) 3m 45yds

Having failed to complete in three of his last four races, it would take a brave man to back Cyrname at around 6/5, and while he would be the clear pick if bouncing back, I’m not sure another breathing operation is enough to paper over the obvious cracks.

Fusil Raffles looks an unlikely stayer in my book, and I’m not sure connections of that pair will want either to be going all-out for the lead in the early stages due to concerns about their ability to see things out.

Obvious

That makes Shan Blue looks the obvious one, and if he’s allowed some rope in front, I doubt his rivals will be able to reel him back.

Shan Blue didn’t finish his novice season as impressively as he started, but his early efforts, including at this meeting, were really impressive, and his jumping at speed is his greatest asset.

He’s not a Cheltenham horse, as he showed in March, and his trainer will be keen to place him to best effect, with this race unlikely to be viewed as merely a stepping stone.

A flat track suits his aggressive style, and he will be doing his winning this side of Christmas.

Recommended

Whatsupwithyou 1.35 Ascot – 1pt win @ 11/1 (general)

Grey Diamond 2.45 Ascot – 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet365, 13/2 Hills)

Glen Forsa 3.20 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Hills, BetVictor, 4 places)

Shan Blue 3.05 Wetherby – 2pts win @ 5/1 (general)