PALACE Pier sets a high standard in today’s Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Two for two at two, John and Thady Gosden’s colt was a little bit of a revelation last season, progressing from a handicap victory to win the St James’s Palace Stakes, battling on tenaciously to get the better of Pinatubo and Wichita in one of the finishes of the season. Then he went to France and beat Alpine Star and Circus Maximus and Persian King and Romanised in the Prix Jacques le Marois, before suffering the only defeat of his life when he could only finish third in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on heavy ground.

He proved his wellbeing on his debut this season though, when he won the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown by eight lengths, and he has 8lb and more in hand of today’s rivals on official ratings.

Talented

Lope Y Fernandez is a talented performer, Aidan O’Brien’s horse could hardly have been any more impressive than he was in winning the Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown on his seasonal return four weeks ago, but you feel that he is going to have to put up the best performance of his life today if he is going to beat Palace Pier.

Top Rank and Lady Bowthorpe are both progressive, and Century Dream and Safe Voyage would come into it if the rains came in quantities, but it is a big ask for any of them to beat an in-form Palace Pier.

We will learn lots from the Lockinge Stakes, but we will probably learn more from the BetVictor London Gold Cup 35 minutes earlier, because it is often won by a progressive three-year-old who can go on to step up in grade, as evidenced by a recent roll of honour that includes Time Test, Cannock Chase, Defoe and Headman two years ago.

Interestingly, none of the last six winners had run more than three times before they won this race, and Cannock Chase had run just twice. It is a race that usually goes to an unexposed horse who has the potential to go well beyond the handicap rating off which he races on the day.

There are quite a few who fit that description today. Bay Bridge is one, representing the Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore combination who teamed up with Cannock Chase in 2014. The New Bay colt was beaten in both his runs at two, but he was really impressive in winning a novice stakes at Newcastle last month on his debut this season, and he races off a mark of just 90 today.

Rocker impressive

Highland Rocker was also impressive in winning last time, at Ripon, and Tamborrada is three for three, for all that he wasn’t overly impressive in winning at Doncaster in March on his turf debut, but, at almost twice his odds, Dubawi Sands is a more attractive betting proposition.

Fifth behind his better-fancied stable companion Beau Jardine in a novice stakes at Newmarket last October on his only run at two, when he ran well for a long way before tiring, Roger Varian’s horse was only just beaten in a novice stakes at Nottingham over a mile on his debut this term.

He stayed on well that day, he caught leader Noble Patron, but he was just outpointed by Mashhoor, who finished off his race between the two of them. Even so, it was a fine start to the season.

His only subsequent run was in a novice stakes at Ripon last time, for which he was sent off at long odds-on, and which he duly won easily, despite still showing signs of greenness.

Handicapper

The handicapper gave him a rating of 86 after that, and that is a mark that could under-rate him significantly. He is really well-bred, by Dubawi and a half-brother to Guineas winner Galileo Gold, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree too.

He is a half-brother to Palladium, who won over hurdles at Sandown in February, and to Petit Palais, another winner over hurdles who also won over a mile and a half for John Gosden. He saw out the 10-furlong trip well at Ripon last time, and this trip could prove to be his optimum.

Roger Varian won this race in 2017 with the high-class Defoe, subsequent Coronation Cup and Hardwicke Stakes winner, and there is every chance that he has had the race in mind for Dubawi Sands for a while. The trainer’s horses are in good form too, he has recorded 11 wins from 43 runners in the last two weeks, for a strike rate of 26%.

Creative Force and Tactical dominate the market for the Listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes, and that is understandable. Creative Force is two for two this season so far, he has won handicaps off marks of 89 and 97, and he is deserving a shot at a listed race now.

That said, he is still rated 9lb inferior to Free Handicap winner Tactical, and he only receives 3lb from him, so the Godolphin gelding is going to have to progress again if he is going to beat Queen Elizabeth’s horse today.

Strong Romance

There is a chance, though, that Happy Romance could beat the pair of them. Richard Hannon’s filly was impressive in winning a big sales race at York’s Ebor meeting last August, and she stepped forward from that to win the Listed Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury in September, when she had more than the three-quarters-of-a-length winning margin in hand over Alcohol Free, who won the Cheveley Park Stakes on her next run.

Happy Romance finished two lengths behind Alcohol Free in that Cheveley Park Stakes, and she finished nine lengths behind her in the Fred Darling Stakes on her debut this season, but that was over seven furlongs.

Nice winner

Dropped back down to six furlongs last time, she ran out a nice winner of a listed race at Chelmsford. She had to overcome adversity to win that day too, she was checked a little just before the home turn, and she was wider than ideal into the home straight, but she kept on really well to get up and beat Chocoya by a neck.

This six-furlong trip is a good trip for her, and she was an impressive winner of another sales race at the track last July. She goes well on good and on easy ground, and she could out-run her odds by a fair way today.

Recommended

Happy Romance, 1 point win, 1.50 Newbury, 11/2 (generally)

Dubawi Sands, 1 point win, 3.00 Newbury, 8/1 (generally)