LAST year’s renewal is usually a good place to start when you are looking for the winner of this year’s Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

The attributes that you need for a King George are quite well defined. Kempton is a flat, park track, you need pace and you need class, and you need to be able to travel and jump, and generally you need to be close enough to the pace, if not right up with it. It is a race that fosters repeat winners.

To put that into context, since 1970, 19 horses have won the race just once, while 13 horses have won it more than once. Also, eight of the last 16 winners ran in the race 12 months earlier.

Bravemansgame is, therefore, a good starting point. Paul Nicholls’ horse was very good in winning the race last year. He had mastered the talented although since-absent L’Homme Presse, proving his stamina for this trip, when that rival departed at the last, leaving him to run out an easy winner.

The fact that Bravemansgame hasn’t won again since is not a massive negative on the face of it, given that he ran big races in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and in the Punchestown Gold Cup last season.

Also, his return this season was good, in the Charlie Hall Chase, when he was conceding 6lb to a talented and under-rated rival in Gentlemansgame. He was beaten all right, but it was still in the balance when Bravemansgame made a significant mistake at the final fence. As comeback runs go, it was more than satisfactory.

If Bravemansgame had gone straight from Wetherby to Kempton, he would be a big player in today’s race. He still is, but it is difficult to argue that his chance has been enhanced by his run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock five weeks ago.

Sent off at odds-on for that race, he had to give best to Royal Pagaille in the end, and he had to have had a hard race, on soft ground at Haydock.

Paul Nicholls is a wizard when it comes to the King George, but it will be some training performance if he can get Bravemansgame back to concert pitch for Tuesday.

King George horse

It’s great that Allaho is finally set to line up in a King George. A dual Ryanair Chase winner, Willie Mullins’ horse has shaped like the quintessential King George horse for a little while now.

The ease with which he travels through his races combined with the enthusiasm with which he takes on his fences and his high cruising speed render him thus.

It was good to see him back in the Clonmel Oil Chase last month and, while he didn’t shoot the lights out, he did win nicely from his talented stable companion Janidil, a 161-rated individual.

He should come on for that run, his first in 18 months, but he is short, and he is probably going to have to step forward quite considerably on that performance if he is going to win on Tuesday.

Shishkin? Your guess is as good as Nicky Henderson’s. There is obviously a chance that he won’t cross the starting line and, if he does, there is a chance that he will hit his customary flat spot at some point in the race.

You can get away with a flat spot at some tracks more easily than you can get away with it at others, but Kempton is not one of those tracks. He is short enough too, given all the unknowns, both known and unknown.

All that into the mix, and The Real Whacker could be the value of the race, he could have been under-rated by the market.

Patrick Neville’s horse was a seriously progressive novice last season. He was very good in winning the Dipper Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and he was even better in winning the Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham in March.

Gerri Colombe closed him down to a short-head by the time he got to the winning line at Cheltenham. He just held on, but it was his jumping and his pace that set up the advantage that saw him home, even if it just about saw him home.

That efficient jumping and pace could be an even more potent weapon at Kempton than it was at Cheltenham.

He was well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his debut this season, but he was struck into that day, and, anyway, that should have been too sharp a test for him. You can allow him that run. He should appreciate going back up to three miles on Tuesday and, while he has never run at Kempton, the track should suit his forward-going style of racing. He could out-perform market expectations.

Coral Welsh Grand National

Iwilldoit could also out-perform market expectations in the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Wednesday.

Sam Thomas’ horse is 10 years old now, almost 11, and he will be racing off a handicap rating of 153, 13lb higher than the mark off which he won the race in 2021, but there are reasons for believing that he still has a big chance.

For starters, he won the race with lots in hand two years ago. He and Highland Hunter had it between them from a fair way out, and he came away from his rival on the run-in.

Off the track for over a year after that, he returned at Warwick last January and, racing off a 7lb higher mark of 147, won the Classic Chase at Warwick.

Iwilldoit is at his best when stamina is at a premium.

He has raced just six times over fences in his life, he is really lightly raced for his age, and we know that he goes well at Chepstow. He won the Welsh National Trial there in 2021 on his only other run over fences there.

He warmed up for this nicely with a good run in a Pertemps qualifier at Aintree in November.

You can be sure that his astute trainer has had this race in mind for him for a little while and, even under top weight, he could put up another big performance.