THERE are many things that have happened thus far at this early juncture in the 2023/24 National Hunt season that you probably couldn’t have foreseen, and the combination of Constitution Hill and Shishkin and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and Sandown is up there among the more unforeseeable.

So what price should Shishkin be to win the race, or in the ‘without Constitution Hill’ market?

That all depends on your opinion on what price he is to start. 1/3? 1/2? Evens? It’s a difficult one to price up.

There is precedent here, as has been well documented. Sariska, Mad Moose, Labaik, Vodkatini. And it’s not binary either, it’s not the case that you either refuse to race or your don’t.

You can lose your race at the start without having the dreaded RR added to your record.

Either way, if you are thinking about backing Shishkin today, you need to get the double up: that he consents to race (first leg) and that, given that he consents to race, he wins (second leg).

He’s around about a 16/1 shot to win the race at the time of writing so, if you think that he is a 1/3 shot to start, you are getting almost 12/1 that he will win the race given that he jumps off with the others.

Conversely, if you think that he is only even money to start, you are only getting 15/2 about him winning given that he starts. Either way, the in-running market on Shishkin will be fascinating.

Off and running

Interestingly, Shishkin is around 7/2 in the ‘without Constitution Hill’ market. If you think that he is 1/3 to start, then you are getting almost 5/2 about him without Constitution Hill, once he is off and running and among them. Hopefully the rains don’t scupper the spectacle now.

As long as racing does go ahead at Sandown, Spirit D’Aunou could go well in the Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle.

Gary Moore’s horse was seriously progressive last season as a juvenile hurdler, winning four times on the spin. Significantly, he probably put up his best performance at Sandown in March, over today’s course and distance and on heavy ground, when he won a juveniles’ handicap hurdle in March off a rating of 115.

That was just a six-horse race, and he was keen for much of it, but he hit the front at the second last flight and he kept on well enough to get home by a half a length from Havaila, who was clear of the rest.

Havaila ran well next time to finish third behind the progressive Blueking D’Oroux in a similar contest at Ascot off a 3lb higher mark.

Spirit D’Aunou was impressive in winning at Chepstow off a 5lb higher mark on his final run last season, but he could only finish fourth behind the aforementioned Blueking D’Oroux in a four-year-olds’ hurdle at Cheltenham’s October meeting on his return this term.

High Class

Blueking D’Ouroux has morphed into a high-class performer, however, he has since won the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle, and it wasn’t a bad run by Spirit D’Aunou on the face of it, finishing fourth behind a now-148-rated performer off level weights.

As well as that, Spirit D’Aunou was really keen for much of that Cheltenham race. He got left behind a little when they quickened on the run to the home turn, before just keeping on up the home straight.

He should be better with that run under his belt. He is a keen-going horse, but there is every chance that he will not be as keen now on his second run of the season as he was on his first.

The bigger field should suit him well, and the fact that he is one for one over the course and distance, and on heavy ground over the course and distance, is an obvious positive. He has the potential to go beyond his rating of 129, and Niall Houlihan is good value for his 3lb claim.

Impose Toi is progressive, he has won his last two and he was impressive in winning a novices’ handicap hurdle last time at Cheltenham’s November meeting. He is a player but he is 10lb higher now than he was at Cheltenham, and he is short.

Langer Dan is of interest, given the degree to which the Dan Skelton horses appear to be improving for their respective seasonal debuts these days, but Spirit D’Aunou is the bet.

Becher Chase

And Percussion is the bet in the BoyleSports Becher Chase at Aintree. Laura Morgan’s horse goes really well at Aintree, over the grand National fences.

Last year, he finished third in the Grand Sefton and in the Becher Chase, this year he finished second in the Grand Sefton.

The Grand Sefton is run over two miles and five furlongs, but the Becher Chase distance of three and a quarter miles probably suits him better.

He is 6lb out of the handicapper today, which is not ideal but he has a lovely racing weight and an ability to get into a rhythm over the fences is more important in the Becher Chase than weights and measures.

Soft or heavy ground holds no fear for him, and you can be sure that this race has been on his radar since the start of the season.