RICHARD Fahey and Oisín Orr teamed up to win the nursery at Ayr yesterday with Flaccianello, and there is every chance that they will be on the scoreboard again at the Western Meeting this afternoon.

Interestingly, Richard Fahey won yesterday’s nursery in 2015 with Donjuan Triumphant, and the Dream Ahead colt won the Ayr Gold Cup two years later when under the care of Andrew Balding, even if the Ayr Gold Cup wasn’t the Ayr Gold Cup that year, taking place, as it did, at Haydock.

This may all be semi-relevant today, because Richard Fahey sent out Ramazan to finish second in that nursery last year, and the Clogherheadman sends the Kodiac colt back to Ayr today in an attempt to win the Ayr Gold Cup for the third time in his career, after Fonthill Road in 2006 and Don’t Touch in 2015. And, like Don’t Touch, Ramazan is obviously a three-year-old, which is statistically a positive.

True, only two three-year-olds have won the Ayr Gold Cup in the last decade, as opposed to four four-year-olds and two five-year-olds and three horses aged six or older, which takes in the eight-year-old Summerghand last year.

(Top marks if you did the maths and got 11 winners in the last decade, because the Fozzy Stack-trained Son Of Rest [4] held on under Chris Hayes to force a dead-heat with Paul Cole’s horse Baron Bolt [5] in 2018.)

But only 20 three-year-olds have tried in that time, which gives the classic generation a strike rate of 10%, as opposed to a 6.25% strike rate for four-year-olds and 3% for five-year-olds and just over 3% for older horses.

Versatility

Ramazan has much more in his favour though besides his age. He had the speed to win over five furlongs on fast ground last season as a juvenile last May, but he proved his versatility when he won over six furlongs on soft ground at Haydock last July.

He has progressed nicely this season too. He won a Class 2 seven-furlong handicap at Haydock in July off a mark of 94, and he battled on well to win a Racing League race at Chepstow last time over seven furlongs off a mark of 98.

A 3lb hike for that win was not harsh. The third horse in the Chepstow race had won an Ascot handicap on his previous run, and the second horse finished second in a handicap at Roscommon next time. That run was up there with Ramazan’s best, and he is on a nice upward trajectory now.

The fact that he is only three means that he retains plenty of scope for progression. Four of his five runs to date this season have been over seven furlongs, and the other was over a mile, but he proved his pace last year, and form over seven furlongs is never a liability in the Ayr Gold Cup, which is usually a true test over six.

He goes well on easy ground, and we know that he goes well at Ayr. That good run in the nursery at this meeting last year is his only run there to date.

Firth of Clyde Stakes

Richard Fahey and Oisín Orr have a real chance too in the Group 3 Firth of Clyde Stakes with Pretty Crystal, who is coming on here after running a big race in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time.

The Dubawi filly looked a likely winner when she made nice ground to move up in behind the leaders on the run to the two-furlong marker that day. The ground was very soft at Goodwood though, and that, combined with the seven-furlong trip, saw her weaken inside the final furlong. She should appreciate the drop back down to six furlongs today, and the move to better ground.

This is a good-looking race though. Raqiya was impressive in winning at Haydock last time, and Dorothy Lawrence was only just caught in the Group 3 Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury last time.

The Johnny Murtagh-trained Prime Art goes into the race on an upward curve too, having battled on well to win her maiden at Naas last time, but the value of the race may lie with Navassa Island.

Michael O’Callaghan’s filly ran a massive race on her racecourse debut, in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas in May, when she finished off her race well to get to within a neck of subsequent Albany Stakes winner Porta Fortuna.

Navassa Island finished down the field herself in the Albany, even if she wasn’t beaten far, and she was beaten in a maiden at Leopardstown in July, but she looked good last time at the Curragh, when she kept on well on the far side to get the better of She’s Quality, who was impressive in winning her maiden at Newbury next time.

Back in third that day, on the near side, was Letsbefrankaboutit, who won the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes next time, with the aforementioned subsequent winner Prime Art back in fourth.

That is strong form, and there is every chance that Navassa Island, a half-sister to Cheveley Park Stakes winner Lezoo, will come forward again for that. Her trainer has his horses in good form, and Navassa Island could out-run her odds.

Navassa Island, 3.00 Ayr, 11/2 (generally), 1 point win

Ramazan, 3.35 Ayr, 14/1 (generally), 1 point each-way