Ascot Saturday

2:30 Tote+ Pays More At Tote.co.uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) 1m 3f 211y

The draw over this trip is always worth a mention, and those drawn high are often talked of as being at a disadvantage, whereas the opposite is clearly the case.

Similarly, while getting to the front is an automatic positive at most courses, Ascot is not a track which favours those on the pace as a rule, and we should expect to see the winner of this coming from behind the early pace, and wide of the rail.

Lost Eden and Roberto Escobarr look to have it to do despite being short in the betting, and I prefer to take a chance on Deja, who can’t beat Without A Fight on their John Porter running, but seemed to need that outing quite badly, and has every chance on the form of his Old Newton Cup win at Haydock last year.

He defied a mark of 105 to win that hugely competitive event, and can be excused a poor run in the Ebor afterwards as he was unable to adopt an essential handy position at York.

Given the favourite also won a Haydock handicap in the mud last summer, but off a 12lb lower mark, it’s clear that a back-to-form Deja would look well-in at the weights for this listed race.

3:40 Tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) 7f

A huge field, as is the norm for the Victoria Cup, but time and again the same horses seem to figure in these big Ascot handicaps. Previous course form is a huge clue, while fields this size often see a bias towards those drawn very high.

Looking for high-drawn horses with previous course form and the ability to handle conditions leads very quickly to Raising Sand, who is not an original choice, but four course wins on good or softer ground tell their own story, and the handicapper has given him a chance after a couple of forgivable defeats in 2020.

His effort in the Hunt Cup was much better than it looked, as he fared much the best of a group who raced on the far side of the track, and the Balmoral Handicap on British Champions Day again saw him badly positioned in a group which was isolated.

Dropped 4lb for those runs, he also has Saffie Osborne’s 7lb claim working for him, and the trainer’s daughter does not lack confidence in the saddle, looking quite an asset already this season.

She won’t panic if the field gets away from her early on, and you can expect Raising Sand to finish with a flourish. I think he can win, but he’s certainly got a big chance of rewarding each-way support with many firms paying extra places.

4:15 Tote+ Exclusively At Tote.co.uk Handicap 1m 3f 211y

Another tough handicap at first glance, but the previously-mentioned advice for the Buckhounds Stakes holds true again, and Frontispiece looks to have solid claims of making the frame at least. He has the right run style and draw, copes well with conditions, and has form in this class at a mile and a half to a mile and three quarters reads ‘1122’ granted some ease underfoot.

Amanda Perrett’s seven-year-old ran an absolute cracker over a trip too short when a length and three quarters lengths fourth of 16 to Flyin’ Solo at Newbury last time, and he should come on for that first run of the year.

Lingfield Saturday

2:15 Novibet Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 1m 3f 133y

Technique ran very well to be second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom, and I thought that effort looked pretty solid at the time, although the disappointing effort of Epsom winner Wirko in the Chester Vase on Wednesday is not the way I wanted to see the form advertised.

This is obviously an easier task for her than it was for Wirko, but it’s worth noting that he failed to repeat his best form at Chester, and if the reason is that he had failed to recover from quite a hard race at Epsom, that may also be an issue for Martyn Meade’s filly.

I don’t want to be against her, but I may have to sit on my hands, betting-wise, due to those concerns.

2:50 Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed) 1m 3f 133y

Recovery Run has a bit to prove after running down the pack in the Sandown Classic Trial on his return to action, but it would be premature to write him off on the basis of an effort which didn’t see him to advantage.

He was steadily progressive at two, his season culminating with a solid second to Lone Eagle in the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket, with last week’s Pretty Polly winner Mystery Angel seven lengths away in third. There is nothing wrong with that effort, and it’s even possible to mark him up as the winner had the run of the race.

Recovery Run has a similar profile to last year’s runner-up in this race, Berkshire Rocco, and the yard have already taken the Chester Vase with Youth Spirit this week; that colt stepped up markedly on his first run of the season, a moderate fourth in the Feilden Stakes, which gives hope that Recovery Run may be able to do the same.

Isabella Giles is the choice in the Novibet Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes

3:25 Novibet Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Rain will be a big negative to the prospects of overnight favourite Double Or Bubble, and clear preference is for Isabella Giles, who may have just needed her reappearance run in the Fred Darling Stakes, and will be better served by this undulating track having shown her best form at Goodwood and Newmarket last term.

The main concern is that she has raced freely on occasion, notably in the Fillies’ Mile last autumn, but she was ridden under restraint to get the trip there, and seemed to resent it, fighting Adam Kirby to get on with the job.

I can see William Buick simply giving her a bit of rein here and letting her stride on, and while that could see her going too fast, I fancy that she might relax when allowed to do her own thing, and if she does, she will be hard to catch.

Recommended

Raising Sand 3:40 Ascot – 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365 5 places, or 14/1 Hills, 6 places)

Frontispiece 4:15 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (SkyBet, Hills, 4 places)

Recovery Run 2:50 Lingfield – 1pt win @ 20/1 (Hills, BetVictor)

Rory’s recommended bets last weekend included:

Poetic Flare - won at 16/1

Naval Crown - four places at 66/1

Saffron Beach - four places at 9/1