THE soft ground horses have been backed in the Hardwicke Stakes today.

Wonderful Tonight and Albaflora and Ilaraab mainly, and that makes sense. It was very soft at Ascot yesterday, they had to survive a lunchtime inspection, and it is going to be soft again today, especially on the round course.

Wonderful Tonight won the Group 1 Fillies and Mares’ Stakes over today’s course and distance on soft ground last October, and she sets a good standard with a rating of 117 and getting the 3lb fillies’ allowance.

Albaflora is similar, in that she gets the fillies’ allowance and in that she is a winner over the course and distance on soft ground.

She will probably have to progress again, however, if she is going to win today. That win was in a listed race, she is rated 4lb inferior to Wonderful Tonight, and she could only finish fourth in the Coronation Cup at Epsom the last time we saw her.

Appreciate

Broome has a real chance, Aidan O’Brien’s horse goes on soft ground too and he will probably appreciate the step up from 10 furlongs to a mile and half, and he is Ryan Moore’s selection, but it may be that Broome’s stable companion Japan has been under-rated by the market.

Japan won the King Edward VII Stakes over today’s course and distance at the Royal meeting in 2019 on easy ground, and he stepped forward from that to win in the Juddmonte International next time, getting the better of Crystal Ocean and Elarqam in a thriller.

He rounded off his three-year-old season by finishing a good fourth behind Waldgeist and Enable in the 2019 Arc de Triomphe, also on soft ground.

It never really happened for him last season, he didn’t win, but he did run well in the Eclipse, to finish third behind Ghaiyyath and Enable, beaten a total of just two and a half lengths. And he shaped really encouragingly on his debut this season, when he kept on well to win the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester’s May meeting, also on easy ground.

His best form is on good or fast ground, but he can handle softer conditions, as he proved in the 2019 Arc and when he won the King Edward VII Stakes in 2019, importantly, at Ascot, over today’s course and distance. And he won his maiden on heavy ground at Listowel.

He could only finish third in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last time, and you have to allow him that, but that is factored into his odds. He is the joint highest-rated horse in the race, and he is deserving of another chance at the price.

Glen Shiel could be the answer to the Diamond Jubilee, on the ground.

Archie Watson’s horse has won five times on soft or heavy ground, and he put up the best performance of his life when he won the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over today’s course and distance last October, battling on well to get home by a nose from Brando, providing his trainer Archie Watson and his rider Hollie Doyle with the first Group 1 wins of their respective careers.

He ran well for a long way in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh on his debut this season, and that run should bring him on for today’s race, a race that his trainer has surely had in mind for him since the start of the season. The rains have arrived at the right time for him.

History tells us that there shouldn’t be much between Glen Shiel and Sonaiyla, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Paddy Twomey’s filly run a big race.

But the fact that Glen Shiel put up the best performance of his life on soft ground on Ascot’s straight track just tilts the balance in his favour.

Recommended

Japan, 1 point win, 3.40 Ascot, 16/1 (generally)

Glen Shiel, 1 point win, 4.20 Ascot, 6/1 (generally)