ONE Irish-trained horse in each of the feature races in Britain today, Mr Incredible in the Wigley Group Classic Chase at Warwick and Green Glory in the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle, and both horses were at the top of the overnight markets.
Both have good chances too. Green Glory was a game winner of a decent novices’ handicap hurdle on the final day of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival two weeks ago, staying on well to get the better of Spirit Of Legend, who had won his maiden on his only previous run over hurdles.
The Irish handicapper raised Charles Byrnes’ horse by 10lb for that win to a handicap rating of 121, and he races off a British mark of 127 today, but he has raced just five times over hurdles and he still has the potential to go beyond that mark.
He should appreciate the slight step up in trip today, and the good pace that he should get. But he is short at around 4/1 in such a competitive race.
Mr Incredible is a similarly interesting contender in the Classic Chase. Winner of his maiden hurdle and his beginners’ chase for Henry de Bromhead – and he did particularly well to win his beginners’ chase at Naas in November last season, having suffered interference early on in the race – he lost his way a little towards the end of last season.
Lot of luck
He didn’t have a lot of luck either in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas on his debut this season, his first run for Paul Byrne and Willie Mullins, when he was brought down at the fourth fence.
He is a horse with bags of potential obviously, and it is interesting that Willie Mullins is sending him over to Warwick for this race but, as with Green Glory at Kempton, the bookmakers haven’t taken any chances with him.
The Classic Chase is a really interesting race. Grumpy Charley stayed on well to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury two weeks ago, a 6lb hike was fair and he could do even better now stepped up even further in trip.
Notachance won this race two years ago off a handicap rating of 139, he is 9lb lower today, and there was some encouragement to be gleaned from his run at Bangor last time behind the Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos. And Guetapan Collonges has won his last three completed races and he has the potential to be far better than his handicap rating of 126.
But the 13/2 that is available about Threeunderthrufive may represent the best value of the race.
Paul Nicholls’ horse won the Grade 2 Hampton Chase on this day last year, proving that he could operate on Warwick’s tricky steeplechase track, and he ran well for a long way in the Brown Advisory Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, when he raced prominently against some of the top staying novice chasers of last season before tiring from the home turn.
He led until the second last flight too in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on his debut this season, a run that probably had the primary objective of bringing him forward with an eye on the Coral Gold Cup, but he unseated at the first fence at Newbury.
He has to shoulder top weight today, and he has to prove his stamina for this extreme trip, but there is stamina in his pedigree, and he stayed on well to win the Hampton Chase on soft ground last year at the end of three miles.
That course form is a big asset to take back to Warwick, and he could be too classy for his rivals today.
Lanzarote Hurdle
Paul Nicholls’ horses continue to run well into the new year, as evidenced by a four-timer at Taunton on Monday.
He has had 10 winners from 27 runners in 2023 so far, which represents and impressive strike rate of 37%, and he has a big chance of landing the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton too with Outlaw Peter.
The Mustameet gelding was impressive in winning his maiden hurdle over the Lanzarote Hurdle course and distance in May and, after his summer break, he returned at Chepstow in October to finish a close-up second behind Accidental Rebel in the Grade 2 Persian War Hurdle.
He was impressive too last time when, stepped back up in trip, he easily landed a novices’ hurdle at Exeter, when his biggest danger through the closing stages of the race was the loose Mr Mars Man.
His last three runs have all been on good ground, but he finished second to subsequent Grade 1 winner, the sadly ill-fated Three Stripe Life, in a bumper on his racecourse debut at Navan on soft ground when he was with John Hanlon, and he won his bumper on his first run for Paul Nicholls on good to soft ground.
A seven-year-old who has run just six times over hurdles, he is one for one at the track, over the course and distance, and he has the potential to go beyond the handicap rating of 130 off which he races today.
Recommended
Outlaw Peter, 2.40 Kempton, 6/1 (generally), 1 point each-way
Threeunderthrufive, 3.00 Warwick, 13/2 (generally), 1 point win