I reckon there is a very good chance Charm Spirit (39) is going to improve those statistics following his success in a hot renewal of this year’s Prix Djebel at Maison-Laffitte.

What was really impressive about the Djebel from a sectional timing standpoint is that they ran every part of the race significantly faster than the fillies managed in the Prix Imprudence, the other big classic trial over the same course and distance. They went 0.6 of a second faster for the first three furlongs then accelerated to take the last half mile a monstrous 2.46 seconds faster.

Charm Spirit was never far away but was held up for a late run as he has been in most of his races. His jockey Olivier Peslier kept his mount wide of the others to avoid traffic and was clearly aiming to win the race with as little effort as possible or just run close.

He had to give Charm Spirit four cracks with the whip to stay a short-head in front in a remarkably close finish where the first four were each separated by the same margin.

Trainer Freddy Head said after the race, “We are pleased with his race. He won and he has plenty of improvement in him. For the future, we will wait and see, our first idea had been to go to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas and we will discuss his plans with his connections. I think he will be better suited to the straight mile at Newmarket than to Longchamp’s mile course. He will come on a lot for this race.”

Charm Spirit lost on his racecourse debut over a mile at Deauville. He lost five lengths by walking out of the stalls, got squeezed out on rejoining the field and then had to come wide. Despite the fast ground his rivals let the leader, Golden Heritage, coast through the first seven furlongs in a pedestrian 1m 33.88 seconds.

As a result Golden Heritage was able to accelerate and sprint the final furlong in a seriously quick 11.13 seconds. Even with his jockey clearly not subjecting him to a hard race Charm Spirit powered through the final furlong in 10.9 seconds to lose by just a length and a quarter.

cruised home

Next time out Charm Spirit cruised home in a similar race over seven furlongs at Longchamp, making the running. Then came his big run in the Group 1 Jean Luc Lagardere on Longchamp’s Arc card. In that race his big late run faltered slightly in the last furlong and he ran a close third to the very smart pair Karakontie and Noozhoh Canarias. It was the only time he has tried anything other than fast ground and it’s clear he didn’t like it.

I spent a long time taking the sectional times and analysing them for the Djebel and the other races on the same card. I’m convinced the win merits a rating of 39 from me, which puts it on a par with the fastest Guineas Trials we normally see.

This year my ratings suggest that the big rivals for Charm Spirit at Newmarket are Australia, Noozhoh Canarias and Toormore.

Australia doesn’t seem to have any strikes against him. But Toormore is apparently now going to run in a Guineas trial despite the fact his connections initially said they’d be keeping him fresh for Newmarket. I don’t like this at all because the last 34 horses his trainer Richard Hannon has run in the 2000 Guineas have all lost.

I’m convinced that’s because all but two of the 34 went for a Guineas trial beforehand and the statistics show that these days the big British Guineas Trials are just too close to the Guineas. I think they need to be run a week earlier otherwise the French horses and those that run in the race fresh have a big edge.

There’s nothing wrong with Noozhoh Canarias except that he needs to be allowed to bowl along in front otherwise he pulls hard. But, having watched all Charm Spirit’s races, I now think he’s more likely than not to reverse form with the Spanish champion provided the ground is fast at Newmarket. Charm Spirit has shown the form needed to win the Guineas right now and deserves to be favourite for the race in my book. How the bookies are offering him at 33/1 is beyond me.

Kiram (39) was runner-up in the Prix Djebel. He finished with a rush and very nearly got up. He’s a pretty big-bodied sort that had won three in a row over six furlongs prior to this smart run. His best win came in the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte, where he came with a storming late run down the wide outside to win easing up. Despite the way he won it looked to me like Kiram was floundering in the heavy ground.

He looked much happier on the fast surface in the Prix Djebel. I would be worried about him getting home over a mile on soft ground as he looks built for sprinting to me. His dam has produced two winners beyond a mile and a half but his sire was the sprinter Elusive City.

Kiram has only ever run on straight courses. He appears not so well balanced, so I am a little dubious about him doing as well around a turn in the Poulains, especially over the longer distance. If he does handle the turn and the distance he’d have a good chance.

Third placed Imperiator (39) moved well in the lead for a long way. However he wandered around left and right as he tired in the final furlong. He kept on pretty well but the seven furlongs did seem to be stretching his stamina to the limit.

Most likely he’ll improve and stay better when he matures and strengthens. For now though I would be wary of betting that he can stay a mile. And, fast as this run was, there aren’t really many opportunities for three-year-old seven furlong horses.

Fourth placed Bookrunner (39) ran a big race for a horse whose previous win came over nine and a half furlongs. He took a bump from See You Soon when Imperiator knocked that horse onto him a furlong out, but it didn’t seem to slow him down.

On his previous start, when he won on Chantilly’s polytrack, Bookrunner flew the last three furlongs in much faster time than the Tierce handicap off a moderate pace. When I adjusted for that I gave him a rating of 34 - listed class for a two-year-old - and two-year-olds don’t often earn decent ratings over nine and a half furlongs.

I don’t think Bookrunner has as much scope for improvement as Charm Spirit over a mile in the Guineas but he’s run fast enough to merit serious consideration if he runs at Newmarket. Long term he will surely do best over 10 furlongs.

Fifth placed Earnshaw (36) ran like a middle distance horse. He just didn’t quite have the pace to go with the first four when they took each other on through the last quarter mile.

When he ran second in the Group 1 Criterium International Earnshaw was flat to the boards in the closing stages and looked set for third until staying on again late.

Admittedly he ran green in the race before straightening up inside the last furlong, but he did look to be crying out for longer than the mile. He’s entered up in the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris. I think those races will be more suitable for him than the Poulains over a mile.