Is this Enable’s easiest Arc task yet?

Well, just numerically, it probably will be. Only 16 horses have gone through the latest forfeit stage this morning. Even if Deirdre is supplemented later in the week, three or four others may come out of the race, which would make this the smallest Arc field in a long time.

That could be significant, not just because there are obviously less rivals to beat, but that it will lessen the impact of a wide draw. Many have pointed towards Enable’s luck of the draw for her two Arc previous wins and have suggested a wide draw could prove troublesome but in a smaller field this is less of a burden.

While Enable could face a smaller number of rivals on Sunday, she could face more individual Group 1 winners than ever before. In the current field, 11 of Enable’s possible rivals have won at the top level, 12 if Deirdre is supplemented. She faced 10 Group 1 winners for her first Arc and seven last year.

That said, four of the Group 1 winners come from Japan and none of them really catch the eye. More significantly, there is no real top class three-year-old filly in the race.

Enable's first Arc was arguably her easiest

ALLOWANCES

You could argue that Enable’s easiest Arc task was her first, when she was a three-year-old filly. That age and sex combination have won four of the previous 11 Arcs from a comparitively small group of runners. Three-year-old fillies receive a generous 10lb allowance from older colts, 7lb from older fillies and mares and 4lb from three-year-old colts.

So with that in mind, you could use the same framework to argue Enable’s most difficult Arc task was last season when she basically met a version of herself the previous year in Sea Of Class. William Haggas’s filly nearly beat her, many believe she should have, but it is also worth remembering the setback Enable was reported to have sustained in the lead up to last year’s race. Many felt she was probably never right last season yet still won in Longchamp and at the Breeders’ Cup in Churchill Downs.

It’s a huge bonus that there is no truly top class three-year-old filly in this year’s renewal, although it is interesting that her stablemate Mehdaayih has been left in the race. She was probably the best filly in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, where she got embroiled in a battle with Hermosa early and then got picked off by Deirdre late on. She is an interesting outsider if indeed she does run, but will surely struggle to challenge her illustrious colleague.

MAIN OPPOSITION

For Enable’s main opposition you’re concentrating on Ghaiyyath and the three-year-old colts Sottsass and Japan.

Ghaiyyath, who was held in seriously high regard as a juvenile, was a horse who came of age on his latest run, winning the Grosser Preis von Baden by a yawning 14 lengths. The form of that race can be questioned but the time recorded can’t and this was a performance that won the plaudits of our own time expert Simon Rowlands, who was keen to add the Godolphin horse to his Arc portfolio after the race.

However that was literally just one piece of form, achieved in what looked a poor Group 1 race and whether Charlie Appleby’s four-year-old can progress or even replicate the effort is open to debate.

Sottsass looked imperious earlier in the season when taking the measure of the seriously hyped Persian King in the Prix du Jockey Club. However his warm-up win in the Prix Niel was less impressive and French form at nearly every level has been pummelled by raiding British horses this season.

So then, you’re left with Japan. It’s interesting that when Treve was going for her third win in the Arc, that year’s Derby winner (Golden Horn) won the race. Anthony Van Dyck holds that mantle now, yet Japan is probably going to be Ballydoyle’s number one hope.

On visiting Ballydoyle for a press morning a week before York, you just got the feeling Japan was the great white hope for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore. His run to finish third in the Derby was above expectations after a lacklustre effort in the Dante and this is a colt who has developed and progressed as the season has moved on with a three-race unbeaten record encompassing two Group 1s.

He was kept back from the Irish Champion Stakes to come here and returning to 12 furlongs will probably suit him better than the extended 10 furlongs of the International.

WIDENING GAP

Ballydoyle have other players, such as the aforementioned Anthony Van Dyck who returned to something close to his best in the Irish Champion, which was won by Magical, who is also on course for meeting number four with Enable. Worryingly for her supporters, the gap seems to be widening rather than narrowing.

To these eyes, Japan looks like Enable’s biggest danger. But odds-on quotes about the daughter of Nathaniel look warranted. Japan’s profile isn’t yet close to the profile of Golden Horn, the most recent three-year-old colt to win, and you are relying on him continue to progress. He may well do and still not be good enough to defeat Enable, who can solidify her standing as the best in the world and sign off with a historical hat-trick.