IT’S hard not to be taken with the way Gold Ship (39) can charge from miles behind to win big races in Japan. The searching early gallop and big sweeping turns of most Japanese turf courses suit him admirably.
Gold Ship didn’t have ideal conditions for his comeback race, the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen. The distance was only 10 furlongs, a bit short of his best, and the track was only just over a mile around.
Early on Gold Ship dropped out last, five lengths behind the next to last horse and 18 lengths behind the leader in the 14-horse contest. Around halfway he began a big, sustained run that saw him surge around the outside of the field while gaining ground quite quickly.
The jockey on the eventual winner Harp Star (40) saw him coming as his mount was five lengths ahead in second last place when Gold Ship began his move. He took that as his cue to move forward and was able to force his rival to go wider as the pair gained.
Harp Star managed to get over to the rail in the straight and held off Gold Ship as he rallied all the way to the line.
Gold Ship has earned ratings as big as 42 from me on several occasions and looks a serious threat to finally win the Arc for Japan.
He doesn’t quite stay two miles but is basically an out and out stayer who likes a searching early gallop. His trainer understandably feels that if the going gets soft for the Arc this will swing things in his favour as he stays so well.
form
Gold Ship was out of form in the last three months of 2013. He’s also failed to get home twice over two miles and found the tight turns of Sapporo beating him the two times he’s tackled group company at the course.
However, he’s won nine of his other 10 most recent starts, including five Group 1 races. He looks a more likely winner of the Arc for Japan than either Harp Star or Just A Way so it’s hard to understand why the bookies have him marked up at bigger odds than those two.
Harp Star’s only two losses in seven lifetime starts came in the Group 1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and Japanese Oaks. In both those races she finished like a train from far back to run second in a photo-finish.
She has yet to run quite as fast as Just A Way or Gold Ship according to the very good speed ratings for Japanese races carried at keibarant.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/ but is bang there with the best European fillies on this performance.
She’ll obviously have a tough task to confirm the form over the longer distance and bigger oval in the Arc but I wouldn’t dismiss her chances lightly.
THE Prix Morny was a hot race this year, with three runners having earned Group 1 class speed ratings from me on their latest starts.
The winner was The Wow Signal (39) who got up to beat the family sized American raider Hootenanny.
Christophe Soumillon may have made a race winning move at halfway when chasing after The Wow Signal to close up just as the runner-up looked set to kick clear. He ended up scoring by half a length, looking as if he’d be better suited by seven furlongs or maybe even a mile. It was the soft ground and searching gallop that helped him produce his best here.
There seem to be an unusually large number of top-class two-year-olds around this season, but it will take something pretty special to beat The Wow Signal in the Jean Luc Lagardere next time. The six and three quarter furlongs of that race should suit him ideally.
Runner-up
Runner-up Hootenanny (38) looks like a four-year-old, as is often the case with American two-year-olds. He’d run as fast as the winner at Royal Ascot but the soft ground and the fact he was taken on up front this time made him something of a sitting duck for The Wow Signal.
The maturity edge American two-year-olds enjoy over their European counterparts dissipates as the season lengthens. It could be Hootenanny has missed his opportunity to win a Group 1. However, he does look likely to stay seven furlongs and is fast enough to win at the top level.
Ervedya (37) kept on nicely for third, looking like a miler running six furlongs. This was her first loss but shows that she’s one of the best two-year-old fillies.
JACK Naylor (36) showed how hard she is to beat now she’s running over longer distances when taking the Flame Of Tara Stakes at the Curragh. Her jockey was able to use her push button acceleration to cover all the moves of the smart runner-up when she came through to challenge in the final furlong.
Jack Naylor is so responsive and easy to manoeuvre I can see her doing well in really big fields, especially around a tight course. So I think it’d be a smart plan to aim her at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf with her. Right now Jack Naylor’s big immediate target is the Marcel Boussac, a ‘win and you’re in’ qualifier for the big American race. The French race often features a big field and favours horses with good acceleration, so I can readily see her becoming the fourth Irish winner in 10 years.
Runner-up Legatissimo (35) is a size bigger than the winner. She’s a good-bodied, mature, classy middle-distance sort who moved noticeably well throughout but was slower to respond than Jack Naylor.
She kept on strongly and was full of run at the finish. In fact she’d headed the winner soon after the line. Clearly the race wasn’t quite far enough for her.
It could be that softer ground would enable Legatissimo to improve on this performance in the Fillies Mile. But, seeing that she encountered a good early pace here, I’m inclined to say that Legatissimo is going to find a mile too short to win in group company.
I reckon it would be a smart idea to introduce a new race for two-year-old fillies like Legatissimo over 10 furlongs that acts as a stepping stone to three-year-old middle-distance classics. The colts already have a 10-furlong Group 1 in the form of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Why not an equivalent for two-year-old fillies? It could be called the Acorn Stakes since it would be designed to attract future Oaks winners.
Cappella had plenty in hand
CAPPELLA Sansevero (28-pace adjusted 33) only won the Group 3 Tower Stakes by three-quarters of a length. But if you watch the video of the race you’ll see he came through from the back to win smoothly with his ears pricked. He’s earned much bigger speed ratings from me in the past and I reckon he only ran slower here because he had a lot in hand.
Apart from his sub-par run in the Railway Stakes, Cappella Sansevero has run one big race after another this season. That one weak performance came the only time he was asked to tackle ground with the word firm in the official description. So, until he proves me wrong, I’m going to assume Cappella Sansevero doesn’t like really fast going.
Cappella Sansevero’s dam and her four winning siblings were all effective over 10 furlongs or more. His sire was a big-bodied sprinter whose first crop are racing this season. My feeling is he will get seven furlongs without a problem. I’d like to see him tackle that distance before deciding whether he’ll last the mile of the Guineas.
Right now stamina is not an issue with Cappella Sansevero as his next target is the Middle Park Stakes.
How good is Solow?
SOLOW (32-pace adjusted 39) was awfully impressive when winning the Group 3 Prix Quincey up the straight at Deauville. Allowed a soft lead, he simply cruised away in the closing stages with little urging to score by five lengths, running the last quarter mile a full second quicker than they managed in the Group 2 Prix de Meautry over six furlongs on the same card.
To say that Solow is versatile is an understatement. He’s won over every distance from a mile to a mile and a half, on soft ground and fast, going left-handed, right-handed and up the straight. In fact the only time he’s lost in his last six starts was when he ran a close sixth in a Group 2 over two miles.
Judged by his big win in the Prix Quincey I’d say that a mile is Solow’s best distance. My ratings indicate the performance was Group 2 class but he won so easily I can readily see him being competitive in Group 1 company. His next entries are in the Prix Dollar and Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. However, he did so well over a straight mile here I’d like to see him supplemented for the QEII.
El Kabeir a horse with a future
IF you want to watch an entertaining video of a maiden race check out Youtube. This shows El Kabeir (36) running away with a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga last Saturday in seriously fast time.
El Kabeir ran the second quarter mile of his race half a second quicker than Palace managed over the same course and distance in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes later on the same card. He went on to run only a fifth of a second slower for the full distance.
The way El Kabeir cleared away from his rivals up the straight was remarkable. He surely has a great chance of emulating his sire Scat Daddy by taking the Champagne Stakes next time out.
Fintry is a star
UNTIL Fintry (32-pace adjusted 39) won at Sandown last week André Fabre had never saddled a group race runner for Godolphin outside France. Despite being the most successful European trainer ever and second only to Aussie legend Bart Cummings in total of group races won, Fabre had been consigned to the role of educator for many of Godolphin’s best horses.
Once they’d done enough to show they were likely to be competitive in Group 1 company they were handed over to one of Godolphin’s other trainers.
It’s good to see Fabre given a chance to show what he can do for Godolphin with a top-class filly like Fintry. She produced a smart burst of acceleration to cover the last quarter mile 1.74 seconds faster than they went in the big handicap and 1.6 seconds faster than in the other eight-furlong race on the card. Once she’d kicked on she merely had to be given a single crack of the whip to keep clear of her rivals.
I’ve noted before that I rate Fintry one of the top fillies in Europe. This run confirmed that. Indeed I suspect I should have given her a rating of 41 for her previous start instead of massaging it down to 40.
Fintry now looks the one they all have to beat in the Sun Chariot Stakes. Assuming she wins that (which I think she will) the interesting question becomes where will she run next? Fintry is entered up in the QEII and would have a decent chance of winning on my ratings but a better target for her is surely the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
André Fabre knows how much the big US race suits a European miler with a good turn of foot like Fintry. He won the race with the rather similar Banks Hill.
Fintry’s sire Shamardal won the Prix du Jockey Club over ten and a half furlongs. Her dam Campsie Fells was fourth in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over 10 furlongs. The relaxed way she runs and the energy with which she finishes plus her physique all convince me Fintry will have no trouble lasting the distance of the Filly & Mare Turf around Santa Anita’s tight downhill turf course.
Runner-up Odeliz (31-pace adjusted 38) was unlucky to come up against a Group 1 filly like the winner in a Group 3 contest. In fact she’d ended up running behind Group 1 winners in three of her most recent four starts before this one despite the fact none on them were better than Group 2.
Odeliz picked up nicely in the closing stages and stays longer. She’s versatile as to course, distance and going. She’s now going to run in the E P Taylor, a Canadian Group 1 that often comes up weak for the class. If that’s the case this year then she’ll have a good chance.
Sprint star: Stonetastic (39) made all the running and simply ran away from her rivals up the straight to clock a fast time when winning the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. Although she’s built and bred for longer and has placed in stakes company over a mile and more, sprinting is clearly Stonetastic’s game. She’s won by more than six lengths all three times she’s run less than a mile. She looks the one they’ve all got to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
Champion Dan: Champions always seem to find a way to win. This was demonstrated by US turf champion Wise Dan (38) who held on by a short-head to win the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch handicap at Saratoga, his first run following a six month break due to colic surgery. Wise Dan moved smoothly in fourth place, was nudged along to improve rounding the home turn, kicked on halfway up the straight and then held off the late rush of the useful Optimizer. He has now won the last 13 times he’s run on turf. Wise Dan has run a fair bit quicker in the past but the way he won here suggests he still can despite being seven years of age. That being so I think he must have a big chance of winning his third successive Breeders’ Cup Mile.