A single defeat can cause the hype to evaporate and future odds to inflate to an equally crazy extent.

This seems to be the case with True Story (38) who started odds-on for the Dante where he actually improved on my ratings despite getting beaten. Yet now, because of the loss, he’s taken a massive walk in the Derby betting.

True Story quickened up better than anything approaching the two-furlong pole and moved forward nicely. He joined issue with eventual winner The Grey Gatsby, being three quarters of a length behind as they neared the furlong marker. Unfortunately his rival was swerving across the course at the time and this caused True Story to slow down and change direction sharply to avoid a collision, losing a good deal of momentum in the process. 

By the time he started rolling again the race was almost over so jockey Kieran Fallon opted to save him for another day and only rode him out hands and heels to keep third place in the closing stages.

Remembering the big finishing kick he produced at Newmarket makes me reluctant to say True Story wouldn’t have won this race with a clear run. My best guess is he would have been second by a neck or half a length.

The fact that he was able to rally after getting hampered at the end of a strongly run 10 and a half furlongs on yielding ground eases the doubts I previously had about True Story lasting a mile and a half at Epsom. 

Add to this the fact that the track is less testing at Epsom thanks to the long downhill run to the straight, the pace is often slower and the ground usually faster and doubting True Story’s stamina begins to look a marginal proposition.

My impression was that True Story wasn’t getting through the yielding ground as well as his rivals - something his trainer had expressed concerns about before the race. 

The likely faster surface at Epsom has to be a big positive. All in all I have to rate him one of the big four players at Epsom (with Australia, Fascinating Rock and Western Hymn being the other three).

The winner The Grey Gatsby (39) does seem to have a bad habit of going walkabout in his races. I thought that switching to a race around a turn might cure him of this but it didn’t. He certainly improved for the step up in distance. However, I would have thought that the Prix du Jockey Club was an unsuitable target for him.

The distance of the Prix du Jockey Club may well be ideal for The Grey Gatsby. However the safety limit was increased a few years back. This has led to fields of 19 or more lining up in five of the last seven years which has created plenty of traffic problems and hard luck stories.

To win or even run well in the race nowadays a horse needs to be very tractable and not suffer from the kind of steering problems The Grey Gatsby has demonstrated.

My bet is The Grey Gatsby runs poorly at Chantilly but bounces back in smaller fields later on in races like the Eclipse or the Juddmonte International.

Third-placed Arod (38) ran a good race, running on well from last place to finish third. However it should be remembered that the winner lost ground by swerving across the track and the runner-up was hampered. 

I reckon that in a cleanly-run race Arod would have finished third by around three lengths. So, while he split two horses that are probably going to at least place in future Group 1s, I’m not convinced he’s a Group 1 horse himself.