YOU can pick holes in the chances of all three horses who sit at the top of the Gold Cup market. Clan Des Obeaux is the King George winner. He is a progressive seven-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls, who appears to be very sweet on his horse’s chances, and who knows a thing or two about training a Gold Cup winner (or two). But the Kapgarde gelding has run at Cheltenham four times, and he has been beaten four times.

He has run well on occasion, like when he finished second behind Guitar Pete in the December Gold Cup as a five-year-old carrying 11st 12lb, but he would have finished third that day had poor Starchitenct not gone wrong, and even that run was well short of the best of his career.

His best runs have been at Haydock and Kempton and Ascot. Also, he has gone beyond three miles twice in his life, and he has come up short on both occasions.

Third behind Might Bite in the Betway Bowl at Aintree last April, fourth behind Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

He may well win the Gold Cup, but he is short for a horse who has yet to win at the track, and a horse who is yet to win at the trip.

Native River could win the Cheltenham Gold Cup again. Colin Tizzard’s horse is tough and talented, and he loves Cheltenham. Specifically, he loves chasing and the Cheltenham Festival.

Only ninth in Martello Tower’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle in 2015, he has run three times over fences at the Cheltenham Festival, and he has excelled on each occasion.

Second to Minella Rocco in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, third behind Sizing John and (the same) Minella Rocco in the Gold Cup in 2017, winner of the Gold Cup in 2018.

They say that the placed horses from one year don’t go back and win the Gold Cup the following year, but he confounded that notion.

He will have to confound another notion this year, that Gold Cup winners just don’t go back and win the Blue Riband again. Best Mate is the last horse to do it, and he won the third of his three in 2004. Before that, it was L’Escargot in 1971.

And last year’s Gold Cup was a particularly gruelling Gold Cup, run, as it was, at an unrelenting, unforgiving pace, mainly down to Native River, and on soft ground.

Only two horses who finished last year’s Gold Cup have won since. Native River is tough, and he has run just twice this season, à la Best Mate.

He could confound the statistics, but he is a short price to do so.

It is more difficult to pick holes in Presenting Percy’s chance. It’s just his preparation. One run over hurdles. Unorthodox. But then, history tells you that it is difficult to argue with Pat Kelly’s methodology.

Philip Reynolds’ horse had an unorthodox preparation last year, and look how that one turned out. It would be some story.

That said, the top three are taking out over 60% of the market. From a betting perspective, the value may lie in looking beyond them.