YOU need to be careful when you are assessing the Irish Grand National trends.

The weight stat tells you that 17 of the 18 winners since the turn of the millennium carried less than 11st, that you can’t be looking at any horse who is set to carry more than 11st.

But dig a little deeper. Last year, only two of the 30 runners carried more than 11st in the race: the 33/1 shot Outlander, and Bellshill, who could have won had he jumped the final fence fluently.

  • In 2017, only five of the 28 runners carried more than 11st, and one of them, Our Duke, won the race.
  • In 2016, again five of the 27 runners carried more than 11st.
  • In 2015, only one of the 28 runners carried more than 11st.
  • In 2014, only two of the 26 runners carried more than 11st.
  • Incidentally, the winner, Shutthefrontdoor, carried 10st 13lb, just 1lb below the 11st mark.
  • In 2013, only one of the 28 runners, the 33/1 shot Junior, carried more than 11st.
  • In 2012, only three of the 29 runners carried more than 11st, and they were sent off at SPs of, respectively, 50/1, 33/1 and 50/1.
  • In 2011, only one horse carried more than 11st.
  • In 2010, only two horses carried more than 11st. In 2009, only six horses carried more than 11st.

    • You get the picture. In the last 10 years, an average of 2.8 horses carried more than 11st, which represents around 10% of the runners. And one of those 10 renewals was won by a horse who carried more than 11st. That’s 10% too.

    So don’t go ruling out the high-weights just because they are the high-weights.