Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1)
3m2½f
STAMINA
The fact that the Gold Cup is so often won by a horse that hasn’t run in the race before - many winners come into the race unproven over the 3m 2½f trip.
Of the 12 individual horses that have won the race this century only Denman, Synchronised and Bobs Worth had proved themselves at the trip before winning the Gold Cup, (the Hennessy distance has been reassessed to 3m 2f but I’m counting that as the same trip).
After some attritional Gold Cups, it’s easy to forget that a lot of fast horses that came into the race with major stamina doubts, have won the Gold Cup.
This century Best Mate, Kicking King, War Of Attrition, Kauto Star, Imperial Commander, Long Run and Lord Windermere all came into the race with genuine stamina question marks - yet all won.
That’s obviously not to say every horse stepping up to the Gold Cup trip gets it, (Willie Mullins’ Florida Pearl being an example of one that didn’t,) but it happens a fair bit more than many punters think and it’s an unknown punters face pretty much every year.
However, they went steadily in Kauto Star’s two wins, (especially in 2007,) and when Lord Windermere won. If you watch those renewals again you’ll see a host of horses still in contention coming into the straight.
CLASS TELLS
Seven favourites have won the 15 renewals this century, with 14 of those renewals falling to a horse from the first three in the market, none of which went off bigger than 8/1.
IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED
The last horse to have won the race, having been beaten on their first attempt, was See More Business in 1999. He doesn’t really count either as he’d been carried out when Cyborgo went lame the previous year so hadn’t really had a shot at the race before.
Ignoring See More Business, The Fellow in 1994 was the last horse that has won the Gold Cup after being beaten the first time they ran in it. (The only horse since The Fellow to have won having ever been beaten in the race is Kauto Star, and where trends are broken only by a truly great horse its best to ignore that breach.)
This century 58 horses, which had been beaten in their first attempt in the Gold Cup, have tried again and all have been beaten - Florida Pearl doing best when second in 2000. Those 58 runners include three favourites and represented 27% of runners and 21% of the market. The relevance of this trend has varied considerably between renewals, but this year it’s very relevant for last year’s placed horses Djakadam and Road To Riches, and also Smad Place and Holywell.
It’s looking a strong renewal this season and I think that’s a real negative for Djakadam and Road To Riches. They had a really hard race in soft ground in last season’s Gold Cup.
AGE CONCERN
Horses aged 10 or older are 1/147 in the four championship races this century, (Moscow Flyer in the Champion Chase was the sole winner.) In a tough race like the Gold Cup I think the veterans have the hardest task of all, the last horse aged 10 or older to win was Cool Dawn in 1998.
In case you were thinking that these veterans were virtually all no-hopers that’s not the case. A total of 65 horses aged 10 or older have run in the Gold Cup this century.
Eleven have gone off at 8/1 or shorter and four (all aged 10) have gone off favourite - See More Business was fourth at 9/4 in 2000, Looks Like Trouble was 13th at 9/2 in 2002, Beef Or Salmon was 11th at 4/1 in 2006 and Kauto Star fell at 8/11 in 2010.
This ties in with how the second season chasers so often improve past their more experienced rivals between Christmas and the Gold Cup. The record of those 11 veterans during that season was fantastic - they had often looked as good or better than ever. (It’s actually eight different horses as Kauto Star qualifies three times and Denman twice.) Between them they had won 16 of their 21 runs that season, including nine of the 11 races at Grade 1 level.
This is a big concern for 10-year-old Cue Card. He has exactly the sort of top class veteran’s profile that goes off a short price for the Gold Cup and doesn’t win. If the greats like Kauto Star and Denman couldn’t do it, there has to be a big question mark over whether the top class Cue Card can.
FESTIVAL LOVE AFFAIR
A total of 13 of the 15 winners this century had run at the festival before, (though the two exceptions are in the last four years). Eight had won at the Festival previously, three had finished second and one of the other two had finished third.
The only one of those 13 to have run at the festival and never been placed was Kauto Star who fell early on in the previous season’s Champion Chase.
You need everything in your favour, including a liking for the course. That’s a genuine concern for Don Cossack who fell in the RSA two years ago and was a bit disappointing in third in the Ryanair last season. It’s a definite question mark.
By contrast, Don Poli, Cue Card and Vautour are all dual Festival winners, Djakadam and Road To Riches ran blinders to be placed in the Gold Cup last year and Smad Place has been placed three times at the festival.
That said, Djakadam has now fallen twice from three starts at the track.
KEY RACES
The William Hill King George VI Chase over 3m at Kempton has produced four of the last 10 winners, and five King George winners this century have followed up in the Gold Cup, (Best Mate, Kicking King, Kauto Star twice and Long Run.)
In the modern era it’s been a great trial, (in the 1990s no horse did the double and the King George form was regularly turned round in the Gold Cup.) That’s a positive for Cue Card who stayed on powerfully to head Vautour on the line. Also-rans Smad Place and Valseur Lido boosted the form.
The Irish equivalent, the Lexus Chase over three miles at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival has also produced four of the last 10 winners, though only Denman and Synchronised were doing the double, (as Best Mate did earlier in the century). Don Poli made hard work of beating a horse rated 147. However, Willie Mullins’ horses are always well short of their peaks at Christmas.
For many years the RSA Chase, run over 3m½f, was seen as a graveyard but the recent record of winners from the previous season’s RSA Chase is good with Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth and Denman all following up in the last eight years, and Looks Like Trouble also doing so in 2000, (Long Run was third in the RSA) Don Poli won with his ears pricked last year and though the field he beat haven’t done the form any favours since, he was impressive.
The Hennessy Gold Cup, over 3m 2f at Newbury often attracts the best of the previous season’s staying novices and Denman and Bobs Worth both won, (off 161 and 160 respectively,) before following up in the Gold Cup, (Lord Windermere was eighth in the Hennessy). The Grade 1 Betfair Chase has produced three winners - Kauto Star twice and Imperial Commander.
KEY TRENDS
+ 14 of the last 15 winners came from the 1st three in the market (SP 8/1 or shorter)
+ 9 of the last 15 winners were second season chasers (8) or novices (1)
+ 8 of the last 15 winners had won a Festival race before
+ 9 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run in the calendar year
+ 14 of the last 15 winners had had no more than 12 chase starts
+ 9 of the last 12 individual horses to win were unproven over the trip before doing so
+ 15 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
- Horses beaten in their first attempt in the Gold Cup, are 0/58 when running in the race subsequently this century
- Horses aged 10 or older are 0/65 this century, including 4 favourites
- None of the last 8 winners had run more than 3 times that season
- Willie Mullins is 0/14
Vautour stands out from the pack on a trends point of view. Second-season chasers have an excellent record in the race, as do horses running in the race for the first time.
Previous festival form is also a key indicator and being a dual winner at Prestbury Park, everything suggests he can improve considerably from this narrow defeat in the King George, where he was only just beaten by Cue Card.
The latter arrived at Kempton in peak condition having won the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chases earlier in the season, and given his busier campaign and the dreaded 10-year-old plus factor, it’s easy to envisage Vautour turning the tables back at the track where he produces his best form.
Don Poli appeals as the best of the rest, who like Vautour is a second-season chaser. Being Irish-bred and prepping for this race in the Lexus are all positives, as is this being his first crack at the Gold Cup.
However, Vautour edges it on the back of two superb visual displays in the last two years, and if Ruby chooses him over Djakadam then he could prove very hard to beat.
RECOMMENDATION
Vautour @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)
*Tipped advised by the Bettrends Team on March 9th
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