ASCOT SATURDAY

2.45 CUNARD HANDICAP 7F

Like a few of my close acquaintances, I am a sucker for a seven-furlong handicap at Ascot despite the inevitable litany of hard luck stories, or perhaps because of them – bad beats trump aftertiming if you want to keep friends in this job. I fear that siding again with Gilgamesh will only add another chapter to that particular storybook, especially with the combination of stall 20 and Jamie Spencer conjuring images of brilliance thwarted by circumstance.

Instead, I will plump for Ripp Orf, who had an unlucky Gilgamesh behind when winning the Victoria Cup over course and distance in May, and again showed his liking for track and trip when beaten less than a length in the International Handicap in July. His only disappointments have come on rain-softened ground, so it’s a blessing that Haydock is soaking up all the precipitation.

The selection has what appears a perfect middle-to-high draw with another course specialist in Zhui Feng likely to make the running, and a couple of other obvious pace angles drawn on either side of him. That should give Ripp Orf the perfect tow into the contest, and he should go well under top apprentice Jason Watson, whose claim is worth its full value.

3.55 LAVAZZA STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 1M 3F 211Y

The early market favoured Sir Michael Stoute’s Midi, a son of Frankel out of top racemare Midday, but that colt is having his third run in a matter of weeks having raced only once previously, and he lacks the solid form to make him of real interest.

If he was favoured because of his pedigree alone, that is rather a slap in the face for First Eleven, who is by the same much vaunted sire, out of the classic-winning mare Zenda, and a more proven broodmare than Midday to boot, as she is also responsible for the exceptional Kingman, who might give Frankel some pause for thought as a sire in the fullness of time.

It’s not just a top-notch pedigree which First Eleven can boast, however, as he was a most unlucky loser when moderately drawn over track and trip in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, and was unsuited to the unusual way the race was run when only fifth in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket.

That run hardly needs forgiving, however, and the trio who finished behind him there have all run with credit in handicaps subsequently. He’s still very fairly treated on his penultimate effort, has a better draw in the context of the field here, and is expected to get back on track.

HAYDOCK SATURDAY

1.50 READ LUKE MORRIS BLOG AT UNIBET HANDICAP 1M 6F

Mekong ran with great credit from the front in the Melrose at York when a selection here, and he will be better suited to the deteriorating ground conditions than many of his rivals here, so could easily make amends. He is the only runner in the field to have been successful on heavy ground, one of only two to have won in this class, and at the trip, so ticks plenty of boxes against admittedly unexposed rivals.

2.25 UNIBET MILE (SUPERIOR MILE) (GROUP 3) 1M 37Y

It’s tempting to side with Emmaus here given his apparent need for testing ground, and he impressed when beating Donjuan Triumphant in the mud at Leicester in April, but the feeling is that this is probably his level, whereas Regal Reality has ambitions beyond Group 3 class, as evidenced by an entry in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on British Champions’ Day.

Sir Michael Stoute’s colt has only had three runs, winning on soft ground on his debut before running well for one so inexperienced in the Heron Stakes at Sandown behind Without Parole. He was only sixth there in the end, but shaped like the second best horse on the day, and vindicated that view when beating Ostilio in the Thorougbred Stakes at Goodwood last month.

That win came on a sound surface, but he’s been campaigned as if needing cut underfoot, and he ought to handle conditions at Haydock fine, as he did at Yarmouth and Sandown. He already looks a match for his rivals on form but gives the strong impression that there is an altogether better racehorse under the surface.

3.35 32RED CASINO HANDICAP 1M 6F

My initial fancy when looking at this race was Theglasgowwarrior, but he is a non-runner. This mproves the prospects of David Barron’s Bolder Bob, who saves his best efforts for ground softer than good and should relish underfoot conditions.

I’m generally wary of Pontefract form, as that track can favour those able to race on the rail/pace and can produce suspiciously wide margins in victory and defeat. That said, Bolder Bob’s win at the Yorkshire venue last time came against the usual bias with him missing the break and staying on to win from an unpromising position.

Almost every other winner on that card led or disputed the lead from an early stage, and this is a race example of me wanting to upgrade a Pontefract winner. The form of that race has generally worked out well, and Bolder Bob is well treated having gone up just 1lb for that success.

4.15 32RED SPRINT CUP STAKES (GROUP 1) 6F

The race for the 2018 Sprint Cup revolves almost entirely around last year’s facile winner Harry Angel, and I’m in no mood to oppose him, but it is very hard to quantify how much his unfortunate experience at Ascot will have affected him, both in terms of the hind-leg injury he sustained at the start of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the mental scars that such an unfortunate experience may or may not have left on a horse with an already pronounced aversion to the stalls.

As such, I would prefer to explore other angles in the race, and with a number of the market leaders looking very vulnerable on the forecast ground, I think there is some each-way value to be had.

The most obvious choice is Tasleet, who was runner-up a year ago on similar ground, and would be sure to go close if in the same form, but he hasn’t been seen since May, which does raise questions about his readiness for the task in hand.

Again, I don’t want to ignore his claims, and a repeat of last year’s finishing order is a perfectly feasible outcome.

However, at the overnight prices, the horse who is the “wrong” price is Donjuan Triumphant, who is a mud-lover who stays further and represents a yard in fine form.

Donjuan Triumphant is probably better at slightly further than this, but his preference for testing ground puts him between two stools. His form this season is patchy, but he didn’t take to fibresand in the winter, and has only once had conditions in his favour, when second to Emmaus at Leicester. His record at Haydock reads 22011, and, while the blip did come in this race two years ago, the fact that he started 7/1 tells a story, and he had no run at all that day.

Before that he’d been second to Sprint Cup winner Quiet Reflection in the Sandy Lane over course and distance, and he won twice last autumn here, including over this trip in heavy ground when defying a mark of 109 in a competitive handicap.

It’s not hard to see how such a performance would see him making the frame here, for all the prospects of beating an in-form Harry Angel are slim. I expect the 40/1 and 50/1 which were bandied about on Friday morning to disappear quickly, and he would make appeal at half those odds.

kempton SATURDAy

2.05 188BET SEPTEMBER STAKES (GROUP 3) 1M 3F 219Y

Much has been made of the clash between Enable and Crystal Ocean here, with Weekender apparently relegated to the role of poor pacemaker, but the Ebor runner-up is better than that, and if Kieren O’Neill sets off in front at a strong pace and the big two concentrate on each other rather than him, then he has sufficient class and stamina to make early position count.

He certainly appeals as an each-way bet assuming all five stand their ground, and it would be no surprise to see him split his better fancied rivals given neither of that pair will be punished in a race designed for them primarily as a prep for the Arc in October.

RECOMMENDED

RIPP ORF 2.45 Ascot – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Coral)

MEKONG 1.50 Haydock – 1pt win @ 9/4 (general)

BOLDER BOB 3.35 Haydock – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Hills)

DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT 4.15 Haydock – 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Coral)

WEEKENDER 2.05 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)