Ascot Saturday

2:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed) 7f

I’ve no intention of getting too heavily involved in the Chesham as the juvenile contests at this meeting don’t exercise my grey cells like the exposed form lines of the big handicaps do. The favourite is solid, and I’m not taking him on, but Masekela ought to give a good account for the yard which won the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday.

A winner of a six-furlong soft-ground novice at Goodwood from Golden War, Masekela appears to have plenty of scope to improve, and his yard’s juveniles tend to progress more than most from first to second start. The longer trip is sure to suit, and the only question is whether he will be stranded in no-man’s land from the highest stall, this field not really big enough for the runners to get to the far rail.

3:05 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) 7f

I’m surprised how big a price Ralph Beckett’s New Mandate is for the Jersey Stakes, admitting it will be his comeback effort.

He improved throughout last year until blowing out at the Breeders’ Cup (Keeneland hardly an ideal track), and seems to have been priced up as if he has reached his limit, but that is not likely in my opinion, and his sire’s stock are training on very well as a rule. He was gelded before his debut, which ruled him out of a lot of the big races last year, but his form is very good. Winner of the Royal Lodge last September, he previously had One Ruler two and a half lengths behind him when landing the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster.

Soft ground asks a new question of him, but as a son of New Bay, he’s bred to relish it, and the market may have got this badly wrong.

Ace Aussie was only a length and a half behind Poetic Flare in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown in April and looks a value alternative. As a hold-up horse drawn high, he has plenty going for him based on the way results have been panning out on the straight course this week, and as a son of Australia, he ought to be effective on the likely soft ground.

3.40 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m 3f 211y

Albaflora was a stunning winner of the Listed Buckhounds Stakes over track and trip in May, and she is much too big a price based on a conservative reading of that form.

She won seven lengths that day on soft ground, and while plenty knocked that form because runner-up Tribal Craft was a 50/1 shot, such criticism went out the window when that filly won the Group 3 Bronte Cup at York on her next start.

The Buckhounds romp wasn’t Albaflora’s first good effort at Ascot in soft ground either, and clearly these conditions bring out the best in her. She was a 7/2 shot in the Coronation Cup last time and wasn’t disgraced despite seeming ill-at-ease at Epsom, and her price for this makes little sense in the grand scheme of things.

The bottom line is that her reappearance run was deemed too good to be true based on what she appeared to achieve, and people have a habit of looking for the most acceptable answer in such circumstances, which is the random concept of the fluke result. I don’t believe in flukes, and I’ll back Albaflora to prove the point.

4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Nahaarr makes most appeal in the Diamond Jubilee, as this stiff six furlongs ought to see him reverse York form with Starman, who beat him in the Duke of York Stakes last time, but was well beaten on his only try here in soft ground, which must be a worry, for all he’s clearly a hugely talented sprinter on a sound surface.

The way Nahaarr finished off after having to wait for the gaps to appear to win the Ayr Gold Cup last year marked him out as very smart, and that York effort should have brought him to peak fitness for this. He handles good to soft, and while really testing ground would be a concern, he looks to have a very good set-up here in regard to pace and draw, and he should be finishing best of all at a track which has favoured such tactics all week.

Ventura Rebel was only fifth in the Duke of York, and has work to do with the front pair, but he kept on well from a tricky draw that day, and it’s worth bearing in mind that he ran his best race when third to Golden Horde in the Commonwealth Cup last year, so this track clearly suits. He is drawn high, and if they go too hard in front, he could pick up the pieces late on.

5.00 Wokingham Stakes

(Heritage Handicap) 6f

King’s Lynn is the blindingly obvious candidate after his improved win in the Achilles Stakes, and he would surely have gone close in the King’s Stand earlier in the week if he’d had a clearer run through. He acts on soft, has given the impression several times that he would appreciate the return to six furlongs, and last year’s winner, Hey Jonesy, was also having his second run of the week, so even that aspect appears a positive to his chances.

Chiefofchiefs won the consolation Wokingham last year, proving that a strongly run six furlongs suits him at least as well as further, and he is likely to be played late again by Jamie Spencer. He handles the ground, and the extra emphasis on stamina will suit him in a race where a few will be flagging late.

6.10 Queen Alexandra Stakes 2m 5f 143y

I was very keen on Falcon Eight to win the Chester Cup having noted Dermot Weld’s interview about the son of Galileo after he had won at Sandown a couple of years ago, and in some style too.

Connections have given the horse time to mature and that looks like paying go. The Master of Roswell House was adamant that this horse needed plenty of time, and it appears to me that the Chester Cup was one of a number of big races that the ultra-shrewd Weld had planned for him. Perhaps the Melbourne Cup will be deemed unsuitable with recent changes made by Racing Victoria, but there is some fun to be had with the six-year-old gelding, who is not fully exposed as a stayer.

I must say that I thought he would be closer to 2/1 for this race, and his odds appear very generous given there is nothing lurking in this line-up, with a fair degree of dead wood in the field, as tends to be the case every year.

Recommended:

New Mandate 3:05 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (general)

Albaflora 3:40 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Hills)

Nahaarr 4:15 Ascot – 1pt win @5/1(general)

Ventura Rebel 4:15 Ascot – 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Falcon Eight 6:10 Ascot – 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365)