FOR obvious reasons the action this week has been low-key, but I have picked out some races that are interesting from an analytical point of view including a comparison of Blood Destiny’s win at Navan last Saturday and his defeat at Punchestown, Ash Tree Meadow’s all the way win also at Navan and finally one horse that merits consideration for the Imperial Cup this weekend.

Blood Destiny shows speed

This Grade 3 was a rematch between Blood Destiny and Spillane’s Tower who met at Punchestown in January over two and a half miles with Spillane’s Tower staying on strongly after the last to win.

The data from Punchestown showed that despite jumping well Blood Destiny failed to stay. Their Race IQ jumping numbers were as follows.

1st: Spillane’s Tower: (+6.81 Lengths)

2nd: Blood Destiny (+8.31 Lengths)

The sectional times from Punchestown show that Spillane’s Tower was stronger than Blood Destiny through the final four furlongs recording a split of 59.98secs compared to Blood Destiny who clocked 61.43secs.

If you break those figures down, it is clear that Spillane’s Tower saw the trip out better. Their final furlongs are telling.

Spillane’s Tower: 16.15secs

Blood Destiny: 16.65secs

The picture was a lot different on Saturday over the shorter trip of two miles with Blood Destiny proving to be too fast for his rival. Not only was the drop in trip in favour of Blood Destiny, but the steady gallop also.

That gallop is analysed best by looking at the winner’s Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) which is recorded by Race IQ as being 115.83%.

This means his final four furlongs were 15.83% faster than the previous two miles. A two-mile segment that allowed him to save plenty of petrol for a fast finish.

Spillane’s Tower was by no means disgraced recording an FSP of 114.88% much better than the other runners in the race but Blood Destiny was too fast.

On this occasion Spillane’s Tower was marginally the better jumper gaining 6.35 lengths compared to Blood Destiny who gained 4.74 lengths, but the sectionals were markedly different to Punchestown.

This time, in a steadily run race, Blood Destiny was too fast for the runner-up recording 61.58secs for the final four furlongs compared to 62.37secs for the runner-up. The speed of the winner amply highlighted by the final furlong splits as below.

Blood Destiny: 15.68secs

Spillane’s Tower: 16.51secs

It would be a surprise after this if Blood Destiny were to race beyond two miles in the near future, whereas a step up to three miles may ultimately bring the best out of Spillane’s Tower.

This was an interesting Grade 2 contest in terms of analytics. Ash Tree Meadow got an easy lead dictating steady fractions in heavy and tiring conditions. The first two miles were particularly slow as shown by furlongs six to nine, all of which were slower than 20.00 seconds per furlong and are detailed below.

Furlong 6: 20.02secs

Furlong 7: 21.34secs

Furlong 8: 20.68secs

Furlong 9: 20.78secs

The pace picked up after two miles producing a fast finish in the conditions. The winner recording 63.63secs for the final four furlongs which equates to an FSP of 118.52%. This really was a four-furlong dash and Ash Tree Meadow was best placed in front when the dash began. However, his finish was not as impressive as it seems when contextualised with what the second and third achieved in that four-furlong sprint. Here are the comparisons.

1st: Ash Tree Meadow: 63.63secs

2nd: Lucid Dreams: 63.67secs

3rd: Journey With Me: 63.20secs

Journey With Me was 0.43secs quicker, yet was beaten four and a quarter lengths. This can be partly explained by him racing in fourth in a slowly run race with the winner able to strike for home first. A better explanation lies in the jumping data.

The crucial point of the race for Journey With Me’s supporters was the second last (13th). He made a crucial error, losing 0.74 lengths, whereas at the same fence the winner gained 1.39 lengths.

That mistake did not make the difference between winning and losing, the difference between them in terms of jumping was 2.13 lengths and the winning margin greater. The difference lies in the speed lost at the fence, the sprint for home was on.

According to the Race IQ data, that mistake caused Journey With Me to slow down by 9.51mph losing vital speed in a race that was all about final four-furlong speed. The winner by contrast also lost speed at the second last but overall was 3.28mph faster.

That crucial loss of momentum was pivotal in Journey With Me not pressing the winner a lot closer, given that he was faster than the winner overall in the final four furlongs.

This is not remarkable form in itself but it is clear that Journey With Me is better than the result.

The data showed him to be utterly dominant. He travelled strongly, then quickened through the final three furlongs. His splits of 14.00secs, 13.21secs and 13.68secs were quicker than all his rivals through those furlongs.

He was the only horse to dip under 14.00secs for the final furlong recording 13.68secs compared to the runner-up Bluegrass who posted 14.44secs. Given the ease of his success, the data could have looked even more impressive.

He jumped fine gaining 2.96 lengths on his rivals through the race. He was particularly good at the second last where he put in his best jump of the race gaining 1.47 lengths.

What was perhaps more impressive was his speed recovery time at the final two jumps. The Race IQ data tells us he recovered full speed at the second last in just 0.2 seconds after landing and in 0.5 seconds after landing at the last. The runner-up took a second to recover at both flights.

Jipcot is surely a player in the Imperial Cup today given the ease of this success.