A casual glance at the table of top trainers from the most recent flat turf season would suggest a standard campaign; the names are the same, the top five in the same order as 2022 with Aidan O’Brien first, followed by Joseph O’Brien, Jessica Harrington, Ger Lyons and Johnny Murtagh.

Digging into the total winners trained, however, and we see that the numbers are quite different. Aidan O’Brien got his, as he invariably does, with 105 winners in all, the exact same as last year following on from 87 and 103 before that.

There were notable dips for two perennial members of the top five, Joseph O’Brien and Ger Lyons, though rather than simply looking at their numbers from one year to the next, a better way to do it might be to compare their total winners with an average of the three previous seasons, taking out some variance.

I did this with each flat trainer that had at least 10 winners in the 2023 season – there were 27 qualifiers – and the tables attached show the five yards that had the biggest jumps and dips.

Ger Lyons started the year slowly and never really recovered, flagging early in the season that he felt his team was subpar while Joseph O’Brien had his lowest winner tally since 2017. He lacked a true star and was without a Group 1 winner though the absence of Galen following a promising debut behind City Of Troy was less than ideal. Still, having 79 winners in a season is a problem many would like to have.

Willie McCreery is another that saw his tally drop versus previous seasons though that might have been forgotten had Vespertilio been able to win the Moyglare; she could be worth upgrading given her efforts came in a down year for her trainer.

The knock-on effect of some big names underperforming was an expanding lower-middle class of flat trainers. Compared with previous years, a similar number of trainers won at least 15 and 25 races but when we go lower to the total of five races, there was a sizeable jump.

59 trainers won at least five races this term whereas in the three seasons previous that number was 53 in 2022, 51 in 2021 and 47 in 2020.

It was the year of the underdog to a degree, though the trainer that saw the biggest improvement versus his three-year average is hardly a little guy. Noel Meade had a huge year on the flat with 33 winners, his previous best was 19 in 2021 per Horse Race Base. Perhaps taking on the O’Brien family on the flat is a better option than going against Mullins and Elliott over jumps.

Tim Doyle and Natalia Lupini have been covered in this column already this season and were also big improvers, as was Michael Mulvany, although it didn’t look like being that way for much of the year.

He bested his previous best of 15 by four this year, but most of those winners came at the backend. He had three winners on board by April 8th but took nearly four months to double that tally before a late season splurge with 13 winners since August 4th, Fratas the main contributor.

JUMPS fans had to wait an extra week to see the top novices from Down Royal but there can be little doubt that there was a performance of note over fences from Letsbeclearaboutit at Cork last Sunday as he won the Grade 3 over two and a half miles.

The Gavin Cromwell-trained eight-year-old had been a very good bumper and novice hurdle horse, albeit below top class, allowing that he did miss a sizeable chunk of time (580 days off the track between April 2021 and November 2022) as a youngster.

His chase debut win at Gowran was good without being spectacular though the form worked out with the runner-up filling the same position off 132 in the Munster National. Still, it was hardly enough to presage what he did to some experienced and in-form runners here.

Strong in the market from an initial price of 9/4 into 5/4 SP, Letsbeclearaboutit jumped and travelled well just behind the pace, drawing mistakes from his rivals, before easing clear by 10 lengths, his time comparison with the later Cork National showing him in a very good light.

Taking both races from the first fence in the shorter contest, I had him over 13 seconds quicker than the staying chasers while carrying basically a stone less than the winner and runner-up there and being far from all out.

His stable is in good shape at the moment, Cromwell pointing that out post-race, and while that will not always be the case, it might well extend to the Drinmore, for which he looks a leading player, especially if the ground came up soft.

One minor note of caution is the subsequent record of the recent winners of this race. They have tended to be good rather than better, and one has to go back to the First Lieutenant in 2011 to find the last winner that achieved an official mark of 160 or higher afterwards.

Most recent winners clustered around 150 subsequently which is understandable given the field for this race can lack true winter horses, but it can throw up horses that go on to do very well in the better handicap chases down the line.

Sadler’s Risk was second in 2014 before winning the Munster National the following year while recently the likes of Run Wild Fred, The Shunter and Noble Yeats were all beaten in the race before winning valuable handicaps.

A few in this year’s race have profiles that suggest they can win good handicaps. The runner-up Mighty Tom was relatively fit having been hurdling over the summer, but this was still an excellent chase debut over a trip that likely stretched him.

He made a big move from last to challenge for the lead at the second last and dropping back to two miles should suit while the opposite might be true of Perceval Legallois. He seemed under pressure from an early stage with the fast pace but still had a chance of placing when falling three out and staying trips should suit him better.

Senecia is another that could do with sharpening up his jumping, but better ground might help with that and a handicap chase over an intermediate trip on a decent surface might prove his optimal conditions.

ONE way to spot a possible track bias is to look at the actions of senior jockeys, the likes of Chris Hayes and Declan McDonogh on the flat, or Paul Townend over jumps often riding to find the best ground.

Townend seemed keen to be off the inside rail in the hurdle races at Cork last Sunday, taking a wide path with his mounts Abi’s Champ and What Path, and it could be worth marking up a couple of horses that raced towards the inner.

Grange Walk stayed wide for much of the two-mile handicap hurdle won by Conyers Hill but his move down the far rail in the straight may not have seen him to best effect while he was also off a 153-day break for a yard whose horses thrive on racing.

Risky proposition

He can be a risky proposition over fences, but he looks well-treated over hurdles and faced an impossible task on his penultimate start at Listowel behind Glan, that one later backed into favouritism for the Galway Hurdle.

Great Island was beaten a long way in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle, but he too went down the inner late while his saddle also slipped early so looks better than this form.