IF you think the retail build-up to Christmas keeps getting earlier and earlier every year, try being a racing fan as the countdown begins to the National Hunt season proper.

It feels as though for weeks - well before some of the flat season’s biggest autumn Group 1s - you cannot look left or right on social media without being hit with tips and opinions on a Cheltenham Festival that is still a full four months away tomorrow. The appetite for jumping chat and content has apparently never been greater.

With the countdown intensifying each year and many punters likely being enticed into ante-post betting earlier and earlier, it’s important to pace yourself and not get swept up by early skirmishes that ultimately could turn out to be weaker form lines than what is in the pipeline over the coming months.

There is always the chance for an unknown quantity to emerge as we get deeper into the winter too. Impaire Et Passe, for example, didn’t even get a mention at Willie Mullins’ press morning and stable tours early last season, and he ended up being Britain and Ireland’s highest-rated novice hurdler in training for 2022-23.

It’s hard to imagine The Real Whacker would have even been quoted for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase before his first win over fences at Cheltenham last November, while 2019 Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills hadn’t raced over hurdles until February 25th - winning a low-key Plumpton maiden hurdle on his only run before the Festival. Likewise, Burning Victory won the same race in 2020, having only made her hurdling bow on February 22nd.

Analysing the results of the last five Cheltenham Festivals, I have tried to determine when is the peak time we are likely to see the Grade 1 winners at the meeting make their seasonal comebacks, and what tracks supply the most major winners at the Cotswolds highlight.

Welcome appearances

Firstly, it’s worth bearing in mind just how relatively infrequently we get to see some of these top performers in action.

When looking at the winners of all Grade 1 races at the last five Cheltenham Festivals (excluding the Champion Bumper), these horses run an average of just 2.77 times in the season before appearing at the Festival. The last four Champion Chase winners ran just twice in the build up to the meeting. Given the season effectively ends roughly a month or so after Cheltenham, we don’t always get to see the leading lights as often as we’d like.

Excluding one of the winners who was subsequently disqualified from his winning comeback run, 44 of the 64 winners of these Cheltenham contests had won on their seasonal reappearance - a strike rate of 69%. Interestingly, only two of the subsequent Festival heroes had fallen on their comeback - Flooring Porter (Lismullen Hurdle 2021) and Shishkin (Newbury maiden hurdle 2019) - while Edwardstone was the sole other incompletion when brought down in a Warwick novice chase.

Bottom line, the best operators don’t tend to fluff their lines even if it is just their first start back from a break.

As for the most fruitful time to watch out for Cheltenham winners, the good news is that if you have been living under a rock since the curtain came down on Punchestown in the spring until now, you likely have not missed bundles.

Timely comebacks

Over the past five years of Grade 1 winners at Cheltenham (excluding the Champion Bumper), just four of the 65 Prestbury Park scorers had made their first start of that season before October (6%). A total of only eight returned in October itself (12%).

The good news for jumps fans is that we have just reached the most informative few weeks of the campaign with a view to Cheltenham winners being seen for the first time this season.

From November 5th to December 7th, more than half - 33 - of these Cheltenham Festival winners over the last five years reappeared (51%). To go a step further, the period of a little more than a fortnight from November 15th to 30th is the richest timeframe of all with 17 such winners - responsible for more than a quarter of all Cheltenham Grade 1 winners in the sample (26%).

For what it’s worth, the median date at which these winners make their seasonal comeback is November 23rd.

Willie Mullins is a unique operator, however, and it’s worth bearing in mind that we do not often see the best of his Cheltenham Grade 1 winners returning until a little later in the winter.

In fact, 18 of the champion trainer’s 22 winners in these races had appeared on or after December 3rd. Only one was seen out earlier than November 22nd.

Course power

What about the tracks that have been most influential when it comes to subsequent Cheltenham Grade 1 winners making their return to action? Here is a table of the most prolific venues since 2019:

12 Fairyhouse

9 Punchestown

5 Newbury

4 Cheltenham, Down Royal

3 Cork, Gowran, Leopardstown, Naas

Unsurprisingly, there is a heavy Irish influence on the standings but Fairyhouse and Punchestown stand out as being especially impactful in terms of the Festival’s biggest races. They have been the most common places for major Cheltenham winners to return in recent times.

It might be worth focussing on some individual festival contests for a brief moment to conclude.

In the past five years, it has been best not to get caught up in early-season juvenile hurdles on these shores with a view to the Triumph Hurdle. Quilixios is the only winner of the race during this period to have run over hurdles in Ireland or Britain by this stage of the year.

Lossiemouth wasn’t seen on these shores until December 4th, Vauban made his Irish/hurdles debut on December 31st and the examples of Pentland Hills and Burning Victory (both in late February) were flagged already.

Over the larger obstacles in Grade 1 novice chases, the average number of runs in the season prior to winning these races since 2019 is three. Put The Kettle On (Arkle 2020) is the only scorer to reappear earlier than late October.

Experience counts

However, the National Hunt Chase can be a different beast. The average number of overall runs over fences prior to winning this race in the past five years is six; last year’s winner Gaillard Du Mesnil entered the contest with nine, while 2021 winner Galvin had eight.

Finally, experience can be a valuable factor in the Champion Bumper too. No horse has managed to win the race on the back of just one bumper run since 25/1 upset scorer Briar Hill in 2013.

Blue Sari went close to doing the same but came up just short, while others sent off at 10/1 or less who recently were beaten in the race after a prep of only one bumper run include It’s For Me, Redemption Day, Ask For Glory, Queens Brook and Panic Attack.

Last year’s winner A Dream To Share, as well as both Envoi Allen and Ferny Hollow, had been seen three times in bumpers before Cheltenham.

We are entering crunch time as a host of winter stars come out to shine. Down Royal’s rescheduled action this weekend should whet the appetite nicely.