THERE is no doubting that Gavin Cromwell is one of the most upwardly mobile trainers you’ll find anywhere in racing right now, and a morning in his company for the Bar One Fairyhouse Winter Festival launch last week served as a reminder of just how progressive his operation is.

Quality is on the rise, his facilities are continuing to develop and the winners are flowing in Britain and Ireland. This is an outfit that appears to be cracking the code.

Given he is clearly a trainer with his finger on the pulse, it was interesting to hear Cromwell discuss the dynamics surrounding when a four-year-old point-to-point graduate is recruited to his yard, and the pitfalls of asking too much from these horses too soon.

“They’re very good trainers [in point-to-points], they don’t miss. I rode a small bit point-to-pointing years ago and you’d sell a four-year-old back then. Every four-year-old had a run and would pull up going to the second last, but it doesn’t happen anymore - they have to win first time out. They know their job.

“In terms of four-year-olds coming to us, I tried to race them on in the same season but it’s hard because they’re so gunned to go and do it [in a point-to-point] and then they have to step into our routine, which is totally different, and it takes a bit of time.

“I’ve had a few that I got from point-to-points in the autumn – like My Mate Mozzie and Path D’oroux – who went on to win their bumpers at the Punchestown Festival, but it took all of four to five months and you’d only get the one run. You won’t get the season out of it. And I have tried it. It doesn’t work out.

“I’ve seen when you’re buying a point-to-pointer, who has been placed, for lesser sums than the flashy winners, giving 60, 70 or 80 grand for them, which is a lot of money but small fry compared to the big winners. Those people think they have a ready-made horse and want to kick on and it’s hard [to wait].”

To spend significant sums and then have to wait may be tricky for an owner, but there is merit in Cromwell’s insight.

Pointing pointer

It’s not just the Champion Hurdle-winning trainer who appears to take this stance. Earlier this year, I looked at a selection of Gordon Elliott’s smarter point-to-point recruits in recent seasons - Gerri Colombe, Envoi Allen, Sir Gerhard, Shattered Love, Fury Road, American Mike, Run Wild Fred, Minella Crooner, Frontal Assault, Hollow Games - and found these runners averaged just shy of nine months (271 days) between their final point-to-point appearance and stable debut.

Elliott has enjoyed considerable success with point-to-point graduates and knows how to get the most out of them. Perhaps more interesting, though, is the time that Willie Mullins tends to give him new recruits after switching stables.

In order to quantify this comprehensively, all of the champion trainer’s horses who achieved a Racing Post Rating of 140 or higher last season in Britain or Ireland were analysed. When looking at those who were sourced from different yards, and excluding Cheveley Park Stud’s Sir Gerhard, Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West (given they arrived at Closutton under much different circumstances to the rest of his recruits when Elliott was suspended in 2021), a total of 74 horses were left in the sample.

The average number of days between these horses’ final run for previous connections and first for Mullins equated to 331 days - nearly 11 months.

It’s worth bearing in mind that these are not solely point-to-point recruits - they make up a minority of the recruits to Mullins’ yard - but the record-breaking handler still seems to value allowing time between these horses’ transition from one training system to another.

Shorter window

What is arguably most interesting when crunching the numbers, however, is to see how Mullins’ new additions have fared when running off a shorter layoff of 200 days or less.

In total, from the pool of top-ranked performers on Racing Post Ratings, 18 horses made their stable debut for Mullins within 200 days of their previous start - and 14 were beaten. To go a step further, 10 failed to win that season. Of those who were beaten on stable debut after this shorter prep window, it took until an average of their fifth run for Mullins to notch their first win for the yard (median equated to fourth run for Mullins). Broadly speaking, even though these horses have turned out to be useful (achieving a Racing Post Rating of at least 140 last season) they have been risky to follow on stable debut and in their initial runs that season.

In some cases, these horses had already won over hurdles that season for another yard, meaning that the clock was ticking on their novice status so turning out sooner than the average gap is a fully logical move.

Galopin Des Champs falls into this category. A winner on his sole start over hurdles at Auteuil in May 2020, he was beaten on his first three starts for Mullins (including as 10/11 favourite and evens favourite) but ultimately got his act together when ridiculously well handicapped in winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham.

Novice status

Others in this category were juvenile hurdlers who took their chance in graded races for four-year-olds and failed to win until coming back for another novice hurdling campaign the following season. A successful recent example of this was Il Etait Temps.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Vauban, who Mullins was originally not keen to race as a juvenile and wanted to keep for a novice campaign the following season, was beaten on his hurdling/stable bow in a maiden hurdle after 165 days of a gap - almost exactly half the time of the average for Mullins’ best performers.

In some ways, it must be a tough sell for trainers to convince owners to initially spend considerable sums on National Hunt horses, who, if are geldings, likely have little residual value, and then have to wait for close to a year to first see them run, if not longer.

However, Mullins - and others - are proving that the long game is one worth playing. The Closutton maestro can easily point to his track record as a means of justifying the time. Setbacks meant Chacun Pour Soi didn’t see the track for a whole 1,089 days from his last run in France and it didn’t diminish his powers when first bursting onto the scene.

Timing is right

Other Grade 1-level performers who have made up for time spent waiting in the wings are Energumene (672 days between British point-to-point win and first start for Mullins), Asterion Forlonge (648-day gap), Appreciate It (622 days), State Man (588 days), Melon (506 days), Kemboy (495 days), El Fabiolo (472 days), Gentleman De Mee (460 days), Saint Roi (448 days), Blue Lord (436 days), Elimay (420 days), Capodanno (398 days), Klassical Dream (391 days), Gaillard Du Mesnil (385 days), Sharjah (372 days), Monkfish (369 days).

In fact, if looking at Mullins’ top horses who posted Racing Post Ratings of 155 or higher in Britain or Ireland last season, the average number of days between their final start for their previous connections and debut for Ireland’s champion was 390 days.

Perhaps the extra time is related to the system in which Mullins prepares his horses. To quote Henrietta Knight’s 2019 book The Jumping Game - How National Hunt Trainers Work and What Makes Them Tick: “It is well known that Willie Mullins trains his horses differently to most other trainers… There are no hills on the gallops at Closutton. Instead, Willie has designed and built numerous all-weather training circuits on 16 acres of flat farmland… In the absence of hills, it became apparent that the Mullins horses would need to expand their lungs and build up the muscles required for jumping hurdles and fences in a different way.

“They would need to do more work to strengthen their necks, backs and hindquarters - essential parts of a horse’s anatomy when it comes to jumping. To this end, the trainer works his horses in long low outlines, and he works them hard. His horses never lose races through lack of fitness.”

Naturally enough too, it makes sense that the more training and tutelage a horse has in the care of a genius trainer, the more opportunity they have to improve. All told, patience pays off when it comes to producing premier National Hunt horses.

If you can afford to splash the cash on quality recruits to jumping, perhaps you must afford to give them the time to fully develop.