IT feels more often than ever at present that headlines emerging from British and Irish racing leave you shaking your head in dismay.

Whether it be the Irish Government’s double standards when it comes to its treatment of gambling and lottery advertisements, or the completely unsatisfactory case of Flemensface being sold for £100,000 to new connections despite having a failed drugs test hanging over him, it seems we are never far away from the next trigger for frustration.

One of the most perplexing stories to emerge lately came in the Racing Post last week when Grand National-winning trainer Dr Richard Newland bemoaned that Irish-trained horses are having a “damaging” effect on British racing and its participants by “dominating” the country’s National Hunt racing.

Newland, who trains in Worcestershire, said he was even meeting with senior British Horseracing Authority figures last week as he “would like them to limit the ability of horses trained in Ireland to travel”.

He added: “This is about protecting British National Hunt racing. The £6.5 million in prize money that went to Ireland last year is damaging to the sport over here because it means it’s gone. Particularly in the smaller races, those prizes are the lifeblood of an industry.”

To call a spade a spade, what Newland is proposing is a protectionist policy that goes against the spirit of competition in sport. In the year 2023, such views are extremely disappointing to hear.

What makes these comments all the more exasperating is the fact we have already been down this road - and recently too.

It was only this time last year when the BHA effectively announced a u-turn on its ban restricting overseas runners in low-grade races, and that was a major boost to Irish trainers and authorities who had fought hard to overturn what was initially a Covid-led restriction.

Dominance claims

On Ireland’s National Hunt success in Britain, Newland claimed: “It’s not just Cheltenham and Aintree where this is happening – it’s Cartmel, it’s Uttoxeter, it’s everywhere and they are dominating in this country.”

Newland might have a different version of the word dominating than is in many people’s dictionaries, though, because it is a bit of a stretch to suggest that has been the case with Irish-trained horses in low-grade British handicaps this year. If you are envisaging a sporting domination like Red Bull and Max Verstappen in Formula One, or Manchester City in European football last season, think again.

By my count, since the beginning of this year, there have been 144 Irish-trained runners in Britain’s class 4 or lower handicaps over jumps and just 12 have won - a strike rate of 8%. Not exactly earth-shattering.

For context, Newland himself has operated at more than double the strike rate of all Irish trainers combined in these races since January. He has won with 23 of his 134 runners in class 4 or lower National Hunt handicaps (17%).

Other British-based trainers such as Fergal O’Brien (24%), Dan Skelton (25%), Ben Pauling (21%) and Anthony Honeyball (28%) have been considerably more prolific than the visitors in this handicap grade through the year.

Irish-trained challengers in these handicaps have been running below market expectations in these races too. Based on their starting prices, you would have expected 16 winners for the visitors so far in 2023 but there have only been 12.

Likewise, the Irish trainers in low-grade British handicaps have an impact value of 0.71. For context, an impact value of 1.00 would mean Irish runners are winning on a par with where you might expect, while an I/V of 1.33 would mean they are 33% more likely to have a winner than the standard. None of the handicap metrics are suggesting anything spectacular.

Ratings risers

In all likelihood, much of that is probably to do with the fact the British handicapping team can assign its own ratings for visiting runners - typically a fair deal higher than their Irish marks.

It is not straightforward to retrospectively find and compare Irish marks for horses running in Britain, but using data from IrishRacing.com and comparing published ratings where possible, it seems the average Irish-trained hurdler in a low-key British National Hunt handicap ran off 8lb higher than their Irish mark over the past six months. For chasers, it was an average of 7lb more.

Of the 13 Irish handicap hurdlers in the analysis since the beginning of August, one appeared to receive a 14lb higher mark in Britain, two looked to be 11lb higher and three appeared to have 10lb more. One of the five chasers with a comparative mark appeared to get 10lb too.

For horses who are typically low class, these hikes can be off-putting for connections to travel but some are clearly still willing to compete away from home. Hats off to them for having a crack at winning a race.

As an aside, Newland mentioned that many do not appreciate “if British trainers see a Gordon Elliott entry, for example, they aren’t going to take that horse on and that’s why you get the Irish horses seemingly propping up fields at times.”

The numbers don’t paint such a frightening picture, though. In fact, Elliott has only had 14 runners in British National Hunt handicaps at class 4 or less this year, resulting in four winners.

In total, when including non-handicap races over hurdles and fences, Elliott has sent out just 24 runners in class 4 company or less in 2023. In a loaded British hurdle and chase programme, Elliott can hardly be accused of being a menacing force when he has only travelled two dozen runners over in low grades. Tracks like Ayr, Perth and Cartmel went on the record last year to express how eager they are to welcome Irish runners to their meetings too.

Home team comparison

Given Ireland’s returns in low-grade handicaps aren’t alarming, perhaps Newland is taking greater issue with the visitors running in non-handicap company against the home contenders.

And, to be fair, when counting Irish-trained horses in all races over hurdles and fences at class 4 or lower in Britain, Ireland’s strike rate improves to 15.7% - 39 winners from 248 runners.

However, this is not off the charts by any means in the context of other British-based trainers in the same category, including Newland himself. He has a better strike rate than all of Ireland combined at 16.5% in all class 4 or less races over hurdles and fences this year.

Fergal O’Brien, Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton all operate at 23% to 24%, and Paul Nicholls - with a more selective team of runners - is firing at an impressive 30%. That is nearly double the strike rate of Irish horses in class 4s or lower.

It also must be remembered that when Irish horses are sent to Britain to compete for modest prize money in low grades, the exercise is often loss-making unless they win. This is largely due to increased costs and red-tape in a post-Brexit world.

In truth, it could be viewed as poor training or campaigning if the Irish strike rate was not relatively solid given the risks attached when travelling. There is financial pressure to succeed.

Prize money impact

Finally, on Newland’s complaint that Ireland looted £6.5 million in prize money over jumps last season, who really thinks that the majority of this sum had anything to do with low-grade fare at smaller tracks, which he suggests is a massive problem for the sport?

Willie Mullins, who was beaten with his only runner in a class 4 novice hurdle in Britain this year, and Henry de Bromhead, who has not been represented in this grade at all in 2023, accounted for £2.42 million in British National Hunt prize money last season. Elliott, whose relatively minor journeys into the lower tiers have already been outlined, earned £1.31 million last term.

Joseph O’Brien, who earned £335,893 in Britain, hasn’t had a runner in the low grades this year either, and Gavin Cromwell (£384,670) is 0-6 in the low National Hunt grades since January.

It’s clear that Ireland’s most valuable successes come at the top table. Would Newland prefer to see Ireland not compete at the major festivals? Cheltenham would look a whole lot different without the visitors turning up. The cupboard would look scarily bare.

Remember, no British-trained novice hurdler featured in last season’s Anglo-Irish classifications after none of the crop managed to reach a mark of 150.

For what it’s worth, Irish tracks are only crying out for British-trained runners to have a crack at our races. Look no further than Punchestown, whose organisers are eager to see as much overseas competition as possible at their spring festival.

What is more, there were no groans from Irish trainers when British handlers scooped more than €3.6 million in prize money on the flat in Ireland last year. There is an understanding of the value in welcoming overseas runners here.

Newland’s attitude towards Irish runners comes across as remarkably closed-minded and implies a level of entitlement to win low-grade races. The doctor’s orders have left me shaking my head again.