1. Recognise the visitors’ strengths
ONE of the biggest traps that Irish punters can fall into over the next two days is to overvalue our domestic form in some divisions, the face of strong overseas challengers.
Going into the weekend with an awareness of which races the visitors typically perform strongest is simply a must.
As follows the general theme of when British-trained runners come to these shores during the flat season, it is over the shortest trips that most attention should be paid to the neighbouring challengers.
Since the introduction of what is now the Irish Champions Festival in 2014, British-trained runners have won five of the nine runnings of the six-furlong Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap, and five of the nine renewals of the Irish Stallion Farms EBF ‘Petingo’ Handicap.
In the latter, they were represented with just three runners in 2022 but still had the first, second and fifth.
With such strong returns in these races, including a host of placed runners collecting good prize money, it’s hard to understand why more British-trained horses don’t travel to this meeting. It’s one thing being wary of taking on Aidan O’Brien in his backyard, but the Ballydoyle team have not won a premier handicap at this meeting since 2014, though they appear to have chances this time around.
Another race where it’s often difficult to oppose the visitors is Sunday’s Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes.
They have plundered seven of the last eight runnings of this valuable two-year-old event and are well able to dominate the finish - as seen last year when Streets Of Gold led home a British one-two-three. That result followed a pattern of strong results for overseas raiders, filling leading positions on multiple occasions (see table above).
British-dominated finishes in Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes
2014: 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
2016: 1st - 2nd - 5th - 6th - 7th
2017: 1st - 3rd - 5th - 7th
2018: 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 5th - 6th - 7th
2019: 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 5th - 7th
2020: 1st - 2nd
2022: 1st - 2nd - 3rd
2. History suggests Bucanero’s stamina will be well tested
SUNDAY’S top-class clash between City Of Troy and Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes is one of the most richly anticipated dust ups of the weekend, and part of the intrigue comes with how the latter will fare on his first try at seven furlongs.
His sire Wootton Bassett is capable of producing talented horses at a range of distances so thriving over a longer trip is certainly possible on that side of his pedigree. There is also encouragement that his brother Beat Le Bon won a Golden Mile Handicap at Glorious Goodwood, though another of his brothers, Wooded, had the speed to win a heavy-ground Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs.
As was pointed out in the analysis section of the Royal Ascot reports in these pages earlier in the summer, striding data from Bucanero Fuerte’s Coventry Stakes third suggested he should have little issue staying further.
That said, the record of Phoenix Stakes winners stepping up in trip in the National Stakes isn’t overly positive.
Air Force Blue is the only horse to complete the double since 2008. Phoenix winners to have tried and failed in that period include Alfred Nobel (last of six as even-money favourite), Zoffany (well-held third as 6/4 favourite), Sudirman (second at 15/8), Lucky Vega (fifth as 2/1 joint-favourite when lacking daylight) and Ebro River (no match for Native Trail in third).
Additionally, other Phoenix scorers such as Pedro The Great, Dick Whittington, Advertise and Little Big Bear were all beaten when going up in distance on their next appearance. All told, nine of the last 10 National Stakes winners had previously won over seven furlongs.
Given that Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore were bowled over by how City Of Troy nearly hit the pull-up boards at the Curragh through being so full of running after his seven-furlong maiden win on debut, there is no doubt that he will test Bucanero Fuerte’s stamina.
What a clash we have in store.
3. Kyprios chasing rare feat
AIDAN O’Brien made it clear when speaking at his pre-Irish Champions Festival press morning last Monday that he is very much unsure whether Kyprios will be sharp enough to make it back-to-back wins in Sunday’s Comer Group International Irish St Leger.
Such was the nature of the five-year-old’s setback earlier this season, the Ballydoyle maestro also remarked that he did not even expect the world-class stayer to race again just four months ago.
“If he runs,” said O’Brien, “I couldn’t imagine him being forward enough to be that competitive in the Leger, though you would still say that he should run a very good race.”
A layoff of 344 days is the task facing Kyprios this weekend, and that is no easy feat. In fact, I am open to correction, but cannot recall any horse since at least the turn of the millennium to have won a British or Irish Group 1 race on their first start after a break of 11 months or more.
The closest I could find in terms of horses overcoming such time off all fell during the Covid-impacted season of 2020, when all horses were at the same disadvantage after racing had halted. Siskin won the Irish 2000 Guineas after a 308-day break that summer, while Alpine Star’s Coronation Stakes strike at Royal Ascot was after 302 days on the sidelines.
Otherwise, Love’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes triumph in 2021 was notable by the fact she had just returned from exactly 300 days off - the same gap between runs as Toronado overcame to win the 2014 Queen Anne Stakes.
It must be said that such examples are few and far between. Kyprios is the standout performer in the staying division and, if able to deliver a comeback success in the Irish St Leger, it would be quite the advertisement of his dominance over this pool of horses. Missed time is likely to be his greatest danger.
4. Auguste’s massive question to answer
WHAT then of Kyprios’ boom or bust stablemate Auguste Rodin?
Deadly at Doncaster but nowhere at Newmarket, exceptional at Epsom but workmanlike at the Curragh, he has been the enigma of the 2023 flat season and arrives with big questions to answer after effectively being pulled up in the King George at Ascot.
O’Brien seems particularly optimistic that the dual Derby winner is ready to recapture his best form in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes. However, his supporters will be primarily putting their faith in the legendary trainer engineering another masterstroke with the blue-blooded colt. He has done it once in 2023, can he do it again?
According to the Proform Racing database, since 2010, there have been a total of 310 horses running in British or Irish Group 1 races who were beaten 10 lengths or more in a Group 1 last time.
Just 18 of these have won (5.8%) - one of which was Auguste Rodin in the Derby after his 2000 Guineas blowout. Emily Upjohn was the previous horse to pull off the same feat at Ascot last October, having tailed off in none other than the King George on her previous run.
On the plus side, of the 18 horses who succeeded - eight of these resurrections were pulled off by O’Brien. He has won the Irish Champion a record 11 times but a second rebirth of the season from Auguste Rodin would surely be his best training performance in the race yet.