4.00 Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1) 7f

Dr Rascal: Unbeaten Group 2 Vintage Stakes winner has a very similar profile to last year’s winner of this race, Zavateri, being a British-trained winner of that Glorious Goodwood contest with three runs under his girth prior to this Group 1 test. Probably fortunate to get a gap down the inner last time, but still not to be underestimated.

Florida Bay: Has the experience of five previous runs to call on and looks to be improving all the time, following up his minor upset in the Group 3 Tyros Stakes by finishing a close second to Giant Sequoia in the Group 2 Futurity. The raceday stewards questioned his running and riding that day (“with particular emphasis on the final 50 yards”) and the rider noted his mount “made an abnormal respiratory noise close to the line”. Arguably not as flashy as his two stablemates in terms of profile but is consistent and hardened.

Folsom Blues: Debut eye-catcher over six furlongs here before impressively landing a Gowran maiden over this trip and finishing a promising second to Florida Bay after getting well behind in the Group 3 Tyros. Lost little in defeat when runner-up to Sun Goddess in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time, and the drop to six furlongs probably suited the winner better than him. Official rating of 113 is 5lb higher than Giant Sequoia’s and he could post a bold showing.

Giant Sequoia: Always spoken highly of and bounced back from a 4/9 defeat on his debut to win a course-and-distance maiden in June, scoring readily. Got on top by half a length when 2/1 favourite for the Futurity last time, just about edging the verdict from stablemate Florida Bay. Gives the impression there could be more to come, though he’ll have to show better than last time to win this.

Haffner: Smart Justify colt has done little wrong this season, catching the eye behind Abraham Lincoln when second on debut before winning a Newmarket July Festival maiden and being narrowly denied by today’s rival Dr Rascal in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes. Saved his best performance yet for the Group 3 Acomb Stakes last time at York and is officially 3lb in front of his stablemate Giant Sequoia, though the stable jockey has chosen against this slightly more experienced juvenile. Has the talent to ruffle some feathers here.

Monogram: A hint of a wow factor about his display when roaring home to win a seven-furlong maiden here on debut 22 days ago, justifying 4/6 favouritism for Juddmonte and Joseph O’Brien. Already high on many lists for next season’s classics and looks highly exciting, but his lack of experience against horses with plenty of runs in blacktype races has the potential to count against him. Positive for his claims that his trainer has won three of the last six renewals of this race.

Porto Vecchio: Similarly as unexposed as Monogram, with just the one run under his girth, and looks an exciting colt in his own right. Form of his maiden win on debut over this course and distance has been boosted since by runner-up Victory Speech winning a maiden at Galway next time, although the third, fourth and fifth have let down the form (well-held sixth did dead-heat in a maiden at Gowran). Bred to be classy as a brother to Irish 1000 Guineas heroine Homeless Songs, but does lack experience.

Trean: Showed the benefit of two previous runs when bolting up in a Galway Festival maiden, seemingly appreciating the ease underfoot on that occasion. Upped in class for the Group 3 Acomb Stakes since when third to Haffner. Beaten two and a half lengths there, having got a little further back in the field than the 1-2. More required if he’s to turn the tables, but rain would likely be in his favour.

Conclusion

A most difficult affair to solve, but the preference is to side with the experienced and more battle-hardened profiles in the line-up, rather than the untapped potential in once-raced colts like Monogram and Porto Vecchio.

It’s not ideal that Ryan Moore has chosen against him, but the handicapper rates Haffner to have achieved more than his stablemate Giant Sequoia, and a tentative vote goes the second-string’s way on the basis that he looked better than ever last time at York and could improve past his Goodwood rival Dr Rascal. He might just be the value in the race.