By Donn McClean

FOR varying reasons, it is probable that Hillstar and True Story are going to command the lion’s share of the media attention and the market in the lead up to this afternoon’s Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock.

True Story has been a big talking horse all season. The talk has not been without substance, mind you. The performance that the Godolphin colt put up in winning the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting was one of the most visually impressive performances of the early part of the season.

But things just have not gone forward as you might have expected since then. He was beaten at odds-on in the Dante on his next run. While there were excuses, and while the winner, The Grey Gatsby, went and won the French Derby on his next run, the performance still exposed True Story’s vulnerability.

He was well-beaten in the Derby when, again, there were excuses, and he was well-beaten in the Eclipse, when he raced in rear off a sedate pace and raced a little keenly in his first-time visor.

He reportedly continues to work really well at home, and this is not an Eclipse or a Derby, he may appreciate this significant drop in grade. However, he has to go and do it again now on the racetrack, he is short, and any rain that falls will be unhelpful.

Hillstar is more difficult to oppose. He is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and will be ridden by Ryan Moore, so there are a couple of column inches and a couple of points shaved off - not necessarily unjustifiably so, mind you - before you even look to see what the horse is.

He was an emphatic winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and he was sent off at no greater than 5/1 for the King George on the back of that.

He raced only in Group 1s between then and May this year, including in the Juddmonte International, the Champion Stakes and the Dubai World Cup.

However, the Danehill Dancer colt is just becoming a little exposed now. He was beaten in the Huxley Stakes by Brown Panther, he was well beaten in the Hardwicke Stakes by Telescope and he was just beaten by Cavalryman in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes.

That is all solid form, those three horses have all enhanced the form since. Also, if they do have plenty of rain at Haydock, that will suit him well. If they don’t, however, 10 furlongs on good ground or anything like it might just be too sharp a test.

It might be worth backing Vancouverite against the pair of them at 5/1. The (other) Godolphin horse is high-class, as he proved when he won four races on the spin last year in France for Andre Fabre, including the Group 2 Prix Guillaume D’Ornano, impressively, at Deauville in August.

Moved into the care of Charlie Appleby this year, he was only just beaten in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan in March, before he ran down the field in the Dubai World Cup.

His debut in Britain, in a 10-furlong listed race at Newbury three weeks ago, was really encouraging. He was the only horse still on the bridle as they passed the two-furlong pole, but he had to ease back in order to move towards the outside to get some racing room.

Still just fifth passing the furlong pole, he got past Al Kazeem 150 yards out and closed on the leader Amralah all the way to the line, just failing to catch him.

The early pace in that race was not strong, so Vancouverite did well to get as close as he did, especially given that he had an interrupted run. He was weak in the market before that race, his first since Dubai, so he should come on for it. Also, he raced in blinkers for the first time that day, and they are retained today.

Ten furlongs is probably his optimum trip, and he has form on soft ground as well as good ground, so he will not mind it if the rains come. Jim Crowley is an interesting booking, and he could run a big race.

Educate is also interesting at a bigger price, there is not much between him and Vancouverite strictly on lines of form through Vercingetorix and Code Of Honor, and last year’s Cambridgeshire winner ran a cracker in the John Smith’s Cup on his latest run in a race that was not run to suit. That said, Vancouverite just has the greater scope for progression, and he is the bet.

Rene Mathis has a lot in his favour in the Class 2 seven-furlong handicap at Newmarket, and he looks over-priced at 7/2.

Richard Fahey’s horse ran a cracker on his most recent run, behind Muthmir at York two weeks ago. Drawn right over on the near side, in stall 19 of 19, he didn’t really get any cover at any stage of the race.

He came under pressure early, but ran on really strongly at the end to take third place.

Muthmir did not win the Stewards’ Cup last Saturday, but the weight of money that was behind him told you how highly-regarded he is, and he still ran a cracker to finish fifth under a 6lb penalty. Rene Mathis gets to compete today off his York mark of 94.

The step back up to seven furlongs should suit, he should get the fast pace that suits him so well with trailblazer Almargo in the line-up, and he proved that he could operate on Newmarket’s July Course last year, and when he won a good six-furlong handicap there on his debut this season off a mark that was just a 5lb lower than today’s.

Almargo is a danger, and Englishman is a nice progressive horse who ran well over today’s course and distance last time, but Rene Mathis should be shorter than 7/2, and he is worth backing.