Donn McClean

TAQUIN Du Seuil could be worth another chance in today’s Betfair Chase at Haydock.

You can end up following horses over cliffs, down to the bottom of the profitless pit, and we had Taquin Du Seuil on side when he was beaten in the Charlie Hall Chase three weeks ago.

However, every horse race is a puzzle of sorts, an individual riddle that is there to be teased out with the evidence that you have at your disposal. At this morning’s prices, Taquin Du Seuil could again be the value of the feature race today.

The worry about Jonjo O’Neill’s horse going into the Charlie Hall concerned his stamina. He had never been beyond two miles and five and a half furlongs before in his life, and he was racing over three miles and a furlong in the Charlie Hall. Or so we thought.

Subsequent findings, instigated by Simon Rowlands of Timeform, have revealed that, actually, the distance of the Charlie Hall was probably short of three miles.

If we had known that before that race, the chances are that Taquin Du Seuil would have been slightly shorter than he was for the race, and that Silviniaco Conti would have been slightly longer.

As things turned out, however, it was the Jonjo O’Neill horse who raced as though he would appreciate a greater test of stamina. He seemed to get out-paced on the run to the third last fence, he got in tight to that obstacle and landed a little flat-footed, and suddenly he was playing catch-up. Menorah quickly challenged Double Ross on the run to the second last fence, at which Taquin Du Seuil picked up just about in fifth place, but he stayed on well over the last and up the run-in to finish second, four lengths behind Menorah.

First of all, you need to find a reason why Taquin Du Seuil will reverse placings with Menorah, and that lies in the ground.

It was testing enough at Haydock yesterday and, at the time of writing, they were expecting somewhere between 5mm and 12mm of rain last night. Any or all of that could render conditions fairly soft this afternoon. Taquin Du Seuil is at his best on easy ground, and Menorah is at his best on good ground. QED.

Even if he can beat Menorah, however, getting the better of Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card and Dynaste will not be easy. But Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card were both disappointing on their respective debuts this season, Silviniaco in the Charlie Hall, Cue Card in the Haldon Gold Cup.

Of course, you can easily forgive a horse a defeat on his seasonal return, especially a horse who is as talented as these two are, but both were really well-fancied and well-backed for their respective returns.

It is probable that they will bounce back, but it is not definite, and they are priced up as if it is definite.

Dynaste is only third favourite, but he is probably the one to fear most. David Pipe’s horse goes well fresh, and he ran a cracker in this race last year to finish second to Cue Card. He is classy but, last season’s Ryanair Chase winner, he just may not want it to turn into a war of attrition.

Taquin Du Seuil has to progress if he is going to win this, but he still has lots of potential to do just that. He is only seven, he is just a second-season chaser, and he has only run in eight chases in his life.

He will have the soft ground on which he excels and, as with Uxizandre last Sunday, Barry Geraghty is an excellent deputy for A.P. McCoy.

If it did happen that the heavens opened, and if it were to get attritionally soft, Harry Topper would become very interesting at a big price, but, on current evidence, Taquin Du Seuil is the bet.

Volnay De Thaix is the obvious favourite for the Fixed Brush Hurdle. Nicky Henderson’s horse was impressive in winning a good handicap hurdle at Huntingdon 11 days ago.

The handicapper raised him 14lb for that but, because today’s race is an early-closing race, he gets to race under just a 5lb penalty, so he is 9lb well-in.

However, Big Easy might be worth backing against him at twice the price. Philip Hobbs’ horse may not have the scope for progression that Volnay De Thaix has, but he is a high-class staying hurdler and he is tough.

Also, he is 5lb well-in, the handicapper having raised him by that amount for his run to finish second in the three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last Saturday.

That was a good race. He and Katkeau had it between them from a long way out. Going to the final flight, it looked as if Big Easy had taken the Pipe horse’s measure, he moved to the front and traded at 1.1 in-running.

However, he was not as fluent as his rival at the last, and he just could not reel him back in on the run-in.

Big Easy is 5lb better off with Katkeau today, as David Pipe’s horse has to shoulder a penalty for winning the race.

Also, he raced towards the centre of the course throughout in that race, probably on the worst of the ground, while Katkeau ran around the outside.

As well as that, it is probable that David Pipe had Katkeau primed for last Saturday, a Pipe horse at Cheltenham’s November meeting having his first run in 21 months. He may be able to repeat that performance today, but there is a chance that he will not.

Big Easy won the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last month off a flat mark of 87, he is tough, he goes well on soft ground and he stays three miles well in what can be a race of attrition, he is worth backing at 8/1.