Donn McClean

YOU wouldn’t think that the draw should have too much of an influence on a race run over two and a quarter miles with just one real turn in it, but it does.

Six of the last 10 winners of today’s Betfred Cesarewitch were drawn 12 or lower (60% of the winners from 36% of the runners), and three of them were drawn four or lower (30% of the winners from 12% of the runners).

In last year’s renewal, three of the first five home were drawn seven or lower (60% of the first five from 21% of the runners).

In 2012 the first three home were drawn, respectively, one, seven and three, in 2011 five of the first seven home were drawn nine or lower (71% from 27% of the runners), in 2010 five of the first eight home were drawn eight or lower (62% from 25% of the runners). And so on. It’s a draw race.

Quick Jack’s draw in stall 12 is not bad, and he obviously has a big chance. Tony Martin is always a man to hold in high regard in these big handicaps, it doesn’t matter if it’s over fences or over hurdles or on the flat.

Specifically, Martin’s record in the Cesarewitch is top notch. He has had just five runners in the race in the last 10 years, he won it with Leg Spinner in 2007 and he sent out Arc Bleu to finish second in the race in 2008. Also, Barba Papa finished third in 2000, beaten less than two lengths.

Quick Jack is a really interesting horse. He joined Martin, winless, at the beginning of 2013, and he has been really progressive since. He hasn’t finished out of the first three in his last nine runs on the flat and over hurdles, he finished second in the November Handicap at Leopardstown last year, and he followed up by easily landing a competitive novices’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

He finished a close-up third in the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown last January when sent off the 7/4 favourite and, rested since, he was impressive in winning the big Connacht Hotel Qualified Riders’ Handicap on the first evening of this year’s Galway Festival.

We have not seen him since, the Cesarewitch has been his target, and even a 9lb higher mark may not stop him winning.

That said, he is short this morning at no better than 6/1, and Swynmor may be a better betting proposition at 16/1. John Quinn’s horse fared poorly in the draw, allocated, as he has been, stall 34 of 36.

However, he was best-priced 10/1 before the draw was made, and he is a 16/1 shot now. That may be too great an extension for the negative that is his poor draw.

A wide draw is not insurmountable. Scatter Dice won what was admittedly a strangely-run renewal last year from stall 18, and Lieutenant Miller was third from stall 32.

Caracciola won from stall 25 in 2008, and Never Can Tell won from the widest draw of all, stall 33 of 33, under an inspired Frankie Dettori in 2011. An outside draw is a negative, but the negative is more than factored into Swnymor’s odds.

The Dylan Thomas gelding was a high-class juvenile hurdler for Tim Vaughan, he would surely have won the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow in January 2013 had he not fallen at the final flight.

It took him a while to recover from that, he was only ninth in the Triumph Hurdle that year, but there were signs that he was re-discovering his old form last year for Rebecca Curtis.

On his first run for John Quinn at the end of May this year, he was most impressive in winning a handicap at Chester off a mark of 83. Raised 16lb for that, he ran a lot better than his finishing position in fifth place suggests in Quick Jack’s race at Galway.

He was well back in the field early on and on the inside. He travelled really well to the home straight but, with a wall of horses in front of him, the race effectively got away from him.

Switched to the outside on the home turn, he finished well, widest of all, to take fifth place.

He was beaten six lengths by Quick Jack that day, but he is 11lb better off today, 16lb if you take Steven Clements’ claim at Galway into account.

Like Quick Jack, he has been put away for today’s race. He goes to Newmarket a fresh horse, and he gets to race off a mark of 95, 2lb lower than his Galway mark.

He stays two and a half miles over hurdles, and he came up the hill well at the end of two miles at Galway, so there is every chance that he will stay two and a quarter miles on the flat at Newmarket. John Quinn’s horses are in good form, easy ground is perfect, and he could run a big race.

Aetna is the obvious one in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York. Mick Easterby’s filly is a progressive young sprinter, she goes well on soft ground, she is proven at the track, and the form of her handicap win over today’s course and distance in May is working out really well.

As is the case with Quick Jack, however, she is short at 7/2 for a big sprint handicap at this stage of the season, and Mass Rally may be worth backing against her at 8/1.

Michael Dods’ horse has four key elements in his favour today: six furlongs, big field, soft ground and York. York is a track at which course form is crucial, and four of Mass Rally’s best five runs have been on the Knavesmire.

Winner of this race last year off a 1lb higher mark than today’s, he finished a good fourth behind Maarek - the first four clear - in the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at the Dante meeting in May.

Given a three-month break after that, he returned at York in August, and finished a running-on ninth behind Blaine after having no luck in-running.

He has been well-beaten twice since, once in a listed race at York and once in the Ayr Gold Cup, but the ground was faster than ideal for him on both occasions.

Also, there were only seven runners in the listed race, not enough for a horse who likes to be dropped in off a fast pace and come through horses, and he did not race on the fastest part of the track in the Ayr Gold Cup.

Dropped 3lb by the handicapper for those two runs, he should be much happier back on soft ground today, especially at York. He should get the fast pace that he needs, and he should finish off his race better than most.