Ascot Saturday
12:40 Silver Wokingham Handicap 6f
Swindler missed the cut for the Wokingham, and has ended up in the weaker Silver Wokingham, and yet his price for this race is bigger than it was for the main event at the start of the week. Go figure.
Looking back at his wins here last season, there is a huge amount to like about Swindler at this level, and he has got to the front very easily on both occasions. For his second win here last season, he wandered in front, and he’s probably best delivered as late as possible, but he looks to have more gears than main rival Blue Mist.
The latter is interesting dropped to this trip having run his best races over seven furlongs here, and while he’s flattened out late on both occasions, I think that might not be purely trip related, and he doesn’t pick up immediately like the selection does.
13:15 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) 5f
Happy Romance was messed around on her debut at Newmarket in the race won by the reopposing Sacred, but showed plenty of ability, and then won easily at Sandown, turning the tables with Newmarket third Bungledupinblue. I was impressed with how easily she kept tabs on the runner-up, who herself had shown blistering speed on her debut.
It’s hard to say that Happy Romance is better than Sacred on what we’ve seen, but she has proved that she can progress, and plenty of two-year-olds have gone backwards from a run here this week, and I’m happy to be with her at around 9/1, compared to 11/2 for the Haggas filly.
Of course, it’s very possible that More Beautiful could be a class apart, and she’s also drawn high, but with the fields likely to make a beeline to the stands rail, the draw bias can be inverted, and 33/1 shot Onassis won from stall one on the last race on Thursday to prove that point.
13:50 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f
Dark Lion was a little disappointing on his debut at Newmarket, finishing fourth to Creative Force having been sent off favourite, but he was clearly expected to do better, and shaped very well after looking a little green through the first furlong, which saw him poorly positioned away from the favoured rail.
It was not easy making up ground at Newmarket at that meeting, and he did well to finish a close fourth after getting unbalanced in the dip and then intimidated by Saieqa, who drifted across him.
Without that catalogue of mishaps, Dark Lion would have finished close, and he looks the one most likely to improve, so looks a value shout, especially with Roger Varian enjoying an excellent meeting, with four winners in the first three days.
14:25 Coronation Stakes (Group 1) 7f 213y
I’d not normally be keen to back a horse drawn one on the round course, but the jockeys were all keen to keep off the rail in the Gold Cup on Thursday.
If they show the same tendency here, then Run Wild will get an easy lead, and a bit of room to manoeuvre, just as she did when winning the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on Guineas weekend. I think that run has been underestimated, as she was just about the easiest winner of the entire meeting despite gearing down in the final furlong.
In fact, her speed figure for that win was exceptional given she was slowing at the finish, and with her trainer saying she wouldn’t stay the Oaks trip “in a taxi”, the return to a mile looks ideal.
Run Wild was shy of the best last year, but she is a tall filly who has filled out very well over the winter, and simply seems an improved performer.
It’s clearly a lot harder to make all at Ascot than it is at Newmarket, but that is over-factored in her odds, and she achieved more in winning that listed race than favourite Quadrilateral did in finish just a fair third in the 1000 Guineas.
She is strictly held by Cloak Of Spirits on that form, and to my eyes looks like she will need a galloping track and an extra quarter mile to show her best form.
Sharing would be a huge player with conditions to suit, and I might have chanced her on the straight mile, but she has done her winning on synthetics and firm ground, and I don’t think she will be at home in what will still be tacky ground on the round course.
15:00 St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) 7f 213y
Not every race requires a bet, and I can’t see how that contest will be enhanced by a wager. For the record, I thought that Pinatubo did not look as wound up as I would have expected for the Guineas, and I would be inclined to give him one more chance to confirm his superb juvenile form. That is hardly the strongest opinion I’ve ever had, and I’d prefer to watch this, hoping that he and Wichita serve up fireworks rather than a damp squib.
15:35 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 6f
One Master is the class act here, and she was unlucky not to win the British Champions Sprint over the course and distance in October. Prior to that she had travelled best, but was overhauled late in both the Queen Anne here and the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, demonstrating exactly what her vulnerability is.
In short, she doesn’t quite get a mile, or not well enough to win a Group 1, but there are few worthwhile prizes at her ideal trip. She needs a well-run race at six furlongs to bring her relative stamina into play, but she is bound to be finishing off as well as anything, and in a race which pales by comparison with the 2019 running, she can take advantage.
16:10 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 6f
Angel Alexander needs to be forgiven a trio of ordinary runs at Meydan earlier this year, but that is not difficult in the grand scheme, and he would be of interest if back to the form which saw him win the Ayr Gold Cup in September.
In fact, that’s not the run to look at when assessing his chances, as he went on to finish an excellent second in the Group 3 Prix de Seine-et-Oise on his next outing at Maisons-Laffitte.
That run was on softish ground and at a track which bears a fair resemblance to Ascot, and he kept on very well to be beaten a length by the prolific Trois Milles.
Running well, but fully four and a half lengths behind Angel Alexander that day was Tinto, who has since won a handicap at Newmarket off a BHA mark of 100. Tinto meets Angel Alexander on identical terms and in very similar conditions as at Maison-Laffitte, but is a general 10/1 shot, whereas Angel Alexander is double that price.
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