Newmarket Saturday

1:50 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m

Many people believe that Royal Patronage was flattered by his wide-margin win in the Acomb Stakes at York, and that belief is played out in the fact that although he is officially the best horse in the Royal Lodge on ratings, he is only third in the betting.

It’s always possible that a front-runner can steal a race, but we need not be in the dark about why that tends to occur, and tends to involve such a horse gaining a “soft” lead, and being able to build an advantage despite not going particularly fast. That is not what Royal Patronage did at York, as the figures indicate, and he spreadeagled his rivals by running very fast indeed for the seven furlongs of that Group 3 contest.

He appears to be well drawn in stall one based on Thursday’s races at the track, and it will be a surprise if he isn’t quickly into a clear lead again. The question is whether his rivals have the ability to pick him up, and while that is possible, the likes of Masekela and Coroebus look under-priced on what they have achieved. That pair won after making the running last time, but both were travelling significantly slower in doing so than the selection did at York, and I doubt if either have the same natural pace as him, for all Coroebus is a blank slate in that regard.

2:25 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Sacred Bridge is the clear pick on her Round Tower Stakes win, and she continues to go from strength to strength, but she’s priced accordingly, and there could easily be a draw bias in operation here, with Flotus likely to lead a group to the stands rail given she made all at Ripon last time. If that happened, then the favourite could look awkwardly drawn in stall three, although that concern is lessened by the fact that the pair drawn lower are the best of the locals on ratings, and she won’t be left isolated.

Lyons is undeniably a first-class handler, and he has a stack of trophies to back up that judgment, but his record on English turf is a comparatively modest 7-112 over the years, while 15 runners in UK group races in the past five seasons have yielded just one place. I still think Sacred Bridge is the best filly, but I’m not inclined to back her at 7/4 or shorter here.

Drawn in stall 11 of 13, Aidan O’Brien’s Tenebrism has not been seen since March, which is an obvious concern, but she was really impressive in winning a traditionally meaningful Naas maiden (won by Poetic Flare last year) despite considerable greenness on that racecourse bow, and as a daughter of Caravaggio out of Coronation Stakes and Prix Jacques Le Marois winner Immortal Verse, she is bred to be something out of the ordinary.

I’m counting on Flotus to lead from the highest stall and head to the stands, as that will enhance Tenebrism’s claims, and while there is something to take on trust, this attractive filly is the most unexposed in the field and while the form of the yard was an issue a few weeks ago, O’Brien is ticking over nicely again, and she is attractively priced given her potential.

3:00 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The Middle Park looks remarkably competitive with seven runners rated within 4lb of each other behind the top-rated Perfect Power, but there are strong signs that Richard Fahey’s colt has the beating of all his main rivals, either directly or through strong form lines at group level.

The defeat of Trident here on Thursday was a bit of a blow to the form of the Group 1 Prix Morny won by Perfect Power, and he was the eighth horse to come out of the Morny and be beaten; that said, the Morny result makes sense in terms of the UK pecking order with Asymmetric third having finished ahead of a notably unlucky Perfect Power in the Richmond Stakes.

Prior to Goodwood, Richard Fahey’s colt had beaten Go Bears Go in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, and that colt then beat Castle Star, Twilight Jet and Dr Zempf in the Railway Stakes. With Richmond also-ran Ebro River beating that quartet in the Phoenix Stakes, the suggestion remains that the home team have the edge, and had Perfect Power not been badly hampered at Goodwood, then he would likely be coming here with on a four-timer and with the collateral form lines all pointing to him as the clear pick on form.

3:40 Bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap 1m1f

I have to confess that I’ve had a significant ante-post interest here already, with the bookmakers asleep at their abacuses (abaci?) on Monday, when the race’s handicap snip, Chichester, was priced up at 50/1 or 66/1 by almost all of the major firms. Keith Dalgleish’s horse had looked unlikely to make the line-up initially, but a penalty for a wide-margin win at Ayr last week guaranteed his spot and the firms ought to have slashed him immediately after that run. On Tuesday it was confirmed that the four-year-old will be 13lb higher in future compared to the mark he got into the race off, making a 4lb penalty look insufficient to stop him, although he is at the mercy of the draw in stall 10, while many of the other fancies in the race are drawn very high.

It’s tempting to have a saver on Majestic Dawn, who did me such a good turn 12 months ago, and he’s again been handed a fine draw should he again commit early, but I’m taking an admittedly risky view that the presence of four front-runners in stalls 29 or higher could see the pace on the stands side being overly strong, and that could hand the initiative to those drawn in the lowest third of the draw. That includes Chichester, but also the overpriced Jean Baptiste, who is 100/1 in a place at the time of writing, but appeals at less than half those odds.

George Boughey’s runner was the last horse to gain a run at declaration stage, and therefore garnered no interest in the ante-post market, but his form reads pretty well, and he’s just 3lb higher than when winning over a furlong further in May. The only time he’s not been in or around the frame this season was when failing to stay 1½m at Ripon on his next start, and he was given an 11-week break before prepping for this with a creditable third at Chelmsford a fortnight ago. He’s not exactly ahead of his mark, but that’s true of the entire field except Chichester, and he shapes as if nine furlongs will be ideal. Recent turf efforts have come on softer ground, but he is equally effective on top of the ground, and should give backers a fair run for their money.

Recommended:

Royal Patronage 1.50 Newmarket – 1.5pts win at 10/3 (BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Tenebrism 2.25 Newmarket – 1pt win at 14/1 (BetVictor, 12/1 general)

Perfect Power 3.00 Newmarket – 2pts win at 2/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

Jean Baptiste 3.40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w at 100/1 (Bet365, 80/1 Betfair, Paddy Power)