Aintree Saturday

1:30 William Hill Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f 188y

In the interests of full disclosure, I should reveal that I’ve had just one ante-post bet for this weekend, and that was to take the price on Coo Star Sivola here, on the basis that he’d only be a couple of points off favouritism on the day. He’s become well-handicapped after missing all of last season, and I thought he ran much better than the bare result in the Duchess of Westminster Memorial at Bangor on his return in October. Coo Star Sivola looked on good terms with himself there, jumping soundly up with the leaders until he understandably got tired from the penultimate obstacle.

He won the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival as a novice, and has dropped below that mark now. His sound jumping and low weight will both be a benefit to him at Aintree, and with Williams only just hitting form in the past week after his typically patient start to the season, Coo Star Sivola is just the pick in a race where the majority need consideration.

2:05 Williamhill.com BOG Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) 2m 209y

It’s strange to say that a juvenile hurdle at Leicester is the key to this listed event, especially when that race saw a 17/2 shot beat fillies priced at 50/1 and 200/1, which would not be an indicator of strong form in normal circumstances. Nonetheless, Megan was hugely impressive in winning the Graham The Plumbers’ Merchant Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle in a very good time for the conditions, and she is almost certainly the right favourite here. In saying that, those who buy into the idea that she is the outstanding contender must also accept that the runner-up that day also ran a hugely promising race given she had to do much of the donkey work, and I can’t help but feel that High Moor Flyer has been underrated again.

The daughter of Pour Moi jumped soundly and came well clear of the others with Megan at Leicester, and looks a nice prospect in her own right, but while the winner has been put into the market at 6/4, Jedd O’Keeffe’s filly is 33/1 across the board, and I fancy she can repay each-way support with the benefit of that run.

2:40 William Hill Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) 3m 210y

Santini will take all the beating here if he’s fully fit, but he was very laboured when winning narrowly on his 2019 return at Sandown, and is a big, raw gelding who may not be the easiest to get fit without the benefit of a run. That makes me want to field against him, and with Frodon showing his best form at Cheltenham, and unplaced on three of his four outings at this track, Native River rather picks himself. He was a joy to watch in this race last year, pinging his fences under an aggressive ride from Richard Johnson, and while he’s not quite the force of old according to some, his wins in Grade 2 chases here and at Newbury last season suggest he’s not deteriorated much. He always goes well fresh, and looks the likeliest winner here.

3:15 William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase 2m 5f 19y

Like the Becher, the Grand Sefton looks very open, and few can be ruled out. Again, I’d be looking for a value proposition rather than a good thing given the vagaries of racing over this track and trip, which by its nature requires a slice of luck. If you fancy Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek, then you have to give a chance to Pink Eyed Pedro, who was a fine third to the Nicholls horse in the Haldon Gold Cup last time despite being unsuited by the drop in trip at Exeter.

Prior to that he was a winner over two miles and three furlongs at Chepstow, and is in the form of his life at the moment. A winning pointer, he’s been successful over an extended two miles and seven furlongs under rules, but he looks ideally suited by intermediate trips, and is overpriced on balance at around 25/1.

Sandown Saturday

1:50 Planteur At Chapel Stud Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 119y

This is not a betting race for me with half a dozen unbeaten novice chasers taking each other on, and it’s very hard to tell just who will raise his game in the face of a stiffer task. Most of the six-runner field have been beating up lesser rivals, with the exception of Eldorado Allen and arguably Ga Law, although the latter was left with little to beat in a Grade 2 at Wincanton last time when the favourite jumped poorly and choked. By dint of having been in a proper race last time (albeit one who would not have won but for Gumball’s late fall), Colin Tizzard’s gelding is the pick.

2:25 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 119y

I’m in a quandary here as I’m committed to fielding against Altior at the top level, but with the prospect of Rouge Vif being withdrawn because of softening ground, this is perhaps not the test of the former champion that it might be. Paul Nicholls potentially holds the key to beating the favourite with both Politologue and Greaneteen in opposition, and the former is flattered by his win in the Champion Chase in March, leaving me clinging to the Haldon Gold Cup winner as my potential saviour having laid Altior ante-post.

That’s an uncomfortable position to be in, as the young pretender has a stone to find with Altior on official figures.

In fairness, the two are likely on divergent paths when it comes to future ratings, and I suspect we will see a big improvement from Exeter, where he went through the race as if needing it, which was confirmed by Harry Cobden in his post-race interview. It’s a stiff enough task, but there are definite chinks in the armour of the once invincible Altior, and Greaneteen is capable of finding them.

3:00 Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase 3m 4f 166y

In a way, Cloudy Glen is blindingly obvious here, representing Venetia Williams on testing ground at Sandown having bolted up in the Southern National at Fontwell last time. I’m very wary, however, and my view is that the Fontwell contest tested speed much more than stamina, and Cloudy Glen has looked best at short of three miles prior to that win.

The fact that he did it without coming off the bridle will be taken by his backers as a huge positive, but for me is arguably a sign that he didn’t need to prove his stamina against slow horses in a slowly run race. This will be a different race altogether, and while Cloudy Glen ran well to be runner-up in the Masters Handicap Chase over three miles here in February, he looked sure to win at the second last, but was seemingly outstayed by Deise Aba up the hill.

He can be pretty free, and has failed to complete on three occasions last year, including when running out at the first fence at Cheltenham having had to be led in. In short, he has one way of winning, and five or six ways of getting beat, and I don’t fancy backing him at 2/1 or shorter.

I could just back the more reliable Classic Ben, but I think I will look to lay Cloudy Glen in the place market, and at skinny odds in the three-place market too.

Recommended

High Moor Flyer 2:05 Aintree - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (general)

Native River 2:40 Aintree - 2pts win @ 5/2 (Bet365, BetVictor)

Pink Eyed Pedro 3:15 Aintree - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (general – SkyBet 6 places)

Greaneteen 2:25 Sandown - 1pt win @ 5/1 (general)