Newmarket Saturday

1:15 Win Bigger On The Betfair Exchange Handicap 5f

Makanah has been put in too big for this sprint given some of his form last year, and while Julie Camacho is not a regular visitor to Newmarket, her runners pay to follow here. The run which stands out on Makanah’s record, oddly enough, is his seventh in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster in September.

He was much better than the bare result there, travelling best of all and hitting the front with a furlong and a half left, but he then spoilt his chance by hanging to the unfavoured far rail, losing ground by doing so. He still looked assured of a place inside the distance, but faded late to lose a number of places in the dying strides. If he’d been delivered later, I feel he would have gone close there, and the drop to five furlongs is a positive now, as is the return to quick ground after a disappointing effort at Catterick in October.

1:50 Betfair Backs Racing Welfare Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f

It’s more than half a century since Bernard Van Cutsem, arguably the last of the great aristocratic trainers in Britain, won the Palace House Stakes with Mountain Call. The days of Van Cutsem’s glory are long gone – he died in 1975 – but punters of a certain age can reminisce happily as his famous “Mauve, Yellow Sash” silks are carried in the big sprint by Moss Gill, trained by James Bethell and owned by him in partnership with Bernard Van Cutsem’s son Geoffrey.

Moss Gill was progressive in 2019, winning three times at the minimum trip, and over the top when running his only poor race at Catterick in October. He returned to action at Wolverhampton to win a conditions race from two useful sorts, showing a smart turn of foot which is a valuable weapon at this level. He is less exposed than most, and with top-rated Judicial well held in this race two years ago, and struggling to win a match at the track last year, he may be vulnerable back at this venue. It’s also worth noting Moss Gill should have the race set up for him by the trailblazing Ornate.

3:35 Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m

It’s very hard indeed to oppose Pinatubo in the Guineas, and unlike some previous outstanding juveniles who have failed to come up to scratch in the classics, he appears to have something about him which will enable him to retain his dominance even as others bridge the gap in terms of physical development. Pinatubo was not obviously a more impressive type than his contemporaries last year, but his physique was in tune with his freakish ability, and he was an athletic machine – all the parts moving in harmony. Many great horses take time to mature in such a manner, and there may well emerge a better horse in this generation, but crucially, not yet.

The early stage of the season, and Pinatubo’s ability to string a series of excellent efforts together augurs well for his chances of proving himself superior this weekend, while he didn’t simply outclass his rivals last year, he also outmuscled them, and in the Dewhurst, outbattled them. In that regard, he is unlike other purely precocious juvenile champions, and while he lacks the physical heft of a Frankel, and is unlikely to challenge that titan of the sport in terms of final rating, he is just what you want in a 2000 Guineas candidate, and only the mathematics of each-way offers should tempt you to look elsewhere.

Newcastle Saturday

2:40 Betway Sagaro Stakes (Group 3) 2m 56y

The move to Newcastle from Ascot has not weakened the Sagaro, and this renewal certainly gets the mouth watering, with little to choose between half a dozen on adjusted ratings. If one of those is capable of better at this trip, however, I fancy it will be the long-striding Mildenberger, who I have liked since his juvenile days. He’s always lacked a turn of foot, which has held him back over shorter, but he is game and reliable and shaped with huge promise over course and distance in December.

Despite only finishing third to Raymond Tusk that day, he was coming back for more at the finish, and in retrospect, he would have benefited from setting a stronger pace and/or getting a lead. He looked as good as ever when beating Weekender at Chelmsford earlier this year, and the benefit of two starts this season will mean that he has a fitness edge over some of his rivals, it being easier to keep a fit horse ticking over than it is to get one to full fitness after an absence.

Newmarket Sunday

1:50 Betfair Exchange Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) 1m 4f

Communique really jumps off the page in this listed event, and Mark Johnston’s tough campaigner is at his very best when dictating terms at this track when the ground is riding good or faster. His career record under such conditions reads four wins from as many runs, including Group 2 wins in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes on the July Course and the Jockey Club Stakes over course and distance last season. He failed to fire in the autumn after a long campaign, but can bounce back with everything in his favour. Despite his wins at a higher level last term, he goes unpenalized here, and that is a big nudge for punters, especially with Ryan Moore booked.

3:35 Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m

While the 2000 Guineas has a rock-solid market leader, I think Quadrilateral is a poor favourite for the fillies’ classic, and she looks worth taking on. She is clearly top class, but the way she got readily outpaced before winning the Fillies’ Mile here in October suggests she will again struggle with speedier fillies, especially back on quicker ground. The daughter of Frankel strides like a middle-distance performer and she is sure to stay 10 furlongs at least. That has not stopped some great fillies of the past winning this race, but Quadrilateral is hardly a leap ahead of her rivals on form, and I suspect Roger Charlton would be delighted if she finished a staying-on third.

The filly to beat, in my eyes, is Millisle, who raced at five and six furlongs in her juvenile campaign, but she was staying on so strongly at the end of both of her races over the longer trip that only the most obtuse would label her a sprinter.

A look at the Cheveley Park Stakes points strongly to her needing seven furlongs last year, and there is every chance that she will get this trip and farther, with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of her pedigree.

She certainly stays better than Raffle Prize, who she beat in the Cheveley Park last year, and she is less exposed to boot. With her ability to handle the track guaranteed, and her lengthy physique pointing to further improvement as a three-year-old, she really should be the clear market leader for this contest.

Recommended:

Saturday:

Makanah 1:15 Newmarket – 1pt win @11/1 (general)

Mildenberger 2:40 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Betway, BetVictor Sky Bet)

Sunday:

Communique 1:50 Newmarket – 2pts win @3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill)

Millisle 3:35 Newmarket – 2pts win @ 5/1 (general)