Newcastle Saturday

1.40 Jenningsbet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap 6f

It’s a concern that Arctic Thunder bled when pulled up at Kempton on his first start for Ed Walker, but he showed no ill-effects when a fine second to Kodi Lion at Haydock last time, running on without getting the full treatment from Rab Havlin to be beaten just a length, with Durham Castle back in seventh. He is untried on Tapeta, but won his maiden at Kempton and the surface should not be an issue for him. His trainer remains in excellent form with two winners at Royal Ascot and that run can continue here, with a strong pace likely to suit Arctic Thunder.

2.10 Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) 6f

Kind Of Blue will be hard to beat at his best, but it’s disconcerting that he missed the Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot in favour of this lesser test and he would surely have run last week if he was showing the right signs at home. Preference is for Ferrous, who won well under a big weight over course and distance last time beating Germanic.

Ferrous is stepping up from handicaps to pattern class here, but did enough in beating some useful rivals conceding weight all round to think he’s well worth his place at this level. He’s on a Tapeta hat-trick, having won at Southwell on his penultimate outing and should give a good account of himself.

2.40 Jenningsbet Festival

Northumberland Vase Handicap 2m 56y

One of the quirks of Newcastle is that, where there used to be a strong low-draw bias in the Northumberland Plate when run on turf, big fields over the same course and distance on Tapeta actually favour the high-drawn runners now and that bias can also be very strong, so I will focus on those drawn on the outside for the staying events, starting with the Vase in which stalls 12 and 13 were first and second last year in a 14-runner contest. Weddell Sea (stall 19) goes well here, winning twice earlier in the year over track and trip and unlucky not to finish closer in the All-Weather Championships when racing from out of the handicap.

Weddell Sea is a strong stayer who will benefit from an end-to-end gallop and should get that in this big field with a couple of front-runners drawn close to him. He’s running off his correct mark this time and, while he isn’t flashy, should be keeping on well to grab a portion of the prize money, and hopefully the lion’s share.

3.15 Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap 2m 56y

Who’s Glen was a progressive stayer last year when running with credit in the Melrose Stakes at York and winning at Chester. He made a promising return when runner-up in the Queen’s Prize at Kempton and shaped well when fifth in the Chester Cup last time, staying on from further back than the quartet who beat him. He fared best of those drawn in double figures in that race where his berth was a significant disadvantage, but being drawn very wide here is a blessing, and he is taken to elevate his form to a new level given a test that ought to suit him really well.

York Saturday

1.55 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap 7f 192y

Archivist didn’t need to improve to land a Leicester maiden last time on his first start since leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but I thought he did it really well in the circumstances and everything about him suggests he will progress well this term, being a lengthy, athletic son of Dubawi, whose former trainer had few peers when it comes to getting such horses to progress with time and experience.

He will need to win here to have a chance of making the cut for the John Smith’s Cup here next month and is very fairly treated even on the bare form of his maiden win; sure to do much better, he’s impossible to oppose and I’d not be at all surprised to see him pick up blacktype before the summer is out.

2.25 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (Group 3) 7f

This race was a fixture at Newmarket for many years, but while the venue has changed, the need for a specialist at seven furlongs remains, and the horse most suited to the trip is Lake Forestwho didn’t convince with his stamina for a mile, even in a slowly-run Queen Anne last time, and the quick turnaround should be no issue given the way that race unfolded. Winner of the Gimcrack Stakes here as a juvenile, Lake Forest put up a career best when taking the Golden Eagle at Rosehill last season over an extended seven furlongs and the trip is likely to prove his optimum. If he’s none the worse for his Ascot run – and it can’t have left much of a mark – then he will be hard to beat.

Curragh Sunday

4.10 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f

It’s not always easy for the Derby winner to adapt to a different track for the Irish Derby, but given the way Lambourn galloped his rivals into the ground at Epsom, he seems very likely to repeat the feat if again utilising the front-running tactics that tend to be so effective here. The few shocks that this race has thrown up have tended to be from outsiders who get rolling in front and are hard to reel in, and Lambourn is clearly well suited by such tactics, and is hard to oppose in the understanding that he will again be ridden aggressively.

Of the others, I thought Tennessee Stud was not as well placed as some in the Derby before running on strongly for a place and I can see him giving the selection most to do, especially if ridden close to the pace, appealing as another with plenty of stamina on his side.

Recommended

Weddell Sea 2.40 Newcastle – 1pt e/w at 16/1 (Hills, 888Sport – 5 places)

Who’s Glen 3.15 Newcastle – 1.5pts e/w at 5/1 (general – 5 places)

Archivist 1.55 York – 2pts win at evens (general)

Lake Forest 2.25 York – 2pts win at 6/4 (general)