Newbury Saturday

1.00 William Hill Racing Epic Boosts Novices’ Hurdle 2m 69yd

Sober Glory seemed amiss at Sandown in December when suffering his only defeat but he has otherwise won six of his seven starts in points and under rules, including a 12-length defeat of Kadastral at Chepstow in November.

Kadastral has improved to win since at this track, but so has Sober Glory, who beat subsequent winner It’s Top by a wide margin here last time, making him very hard to oppose.

1.35 William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Qualifier) 3m 57yd

A Pai De Nom was my original pick here but continued heavy rain will put extra emphasis on stamina and an ability handle heavy ground, so Kyntara must be considered given his record in such conditions. Mel Rowley’s veteran has run 11 times on soft or heavy ground, finishing first or second on eight of those, and that record improves on ground described as soft or heavy after the event by Timeform, with form figures reading 1222122F.

The fall came when in a clear third in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April 2024 won by Dancing City from The Jukebox Man. According to Timeform, he’s not had soft or heavy ground since that fall and while his efforts on a sounder surface this term need improving upon, the opportunity to race on a heavy track for the first time in ages could well prove a catalyst for revival.

The concern is that he may just be on the downgrade and his excellent handler is having a moderate season by her standards, but the risk looks worth taking at the current odds, which look generous.

2.10 William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) 2m 7f 91yd

L’Homme Presse is more exposed than Haiti Couleurs, but he is a very consistent chaser granted soft ground (unraced on heavy) and is a little better than Rebecca Curtis’s Welsh National winner on all known form. His stable is having a quiet time, but he improved on a solid run in handicap company when second in the Cotswold Chase a fortnight ago.

This is a quick enough turnaround but he’s twice been turned around in a similar timeframe before, winning twice in his novice season off a fortnight’s rest before extending that winning sequence to five wins in three months in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham.

He fell in the following season’s King George when set to finish second and has been harder to train since, but I would take his quick reappearance after Cheltenham as a positive.

For what it’s worth, his full chase record on yielding or softer after a recent run (six weeks or less) reads 11113U241. Haiti Couleurs is much shorter in the betting for the Gold Cup and could progress again, but his best efforts are when conceding weight in handicaps, and his one moderate run over fences came in a small field for the Betfair Chase in November. I wouldn’t judge him on that, but he represents little value at the current odds.

2.45 William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) 2m 92yd

Lulamba is following in the footsteps of Sprinter Sacre and Altior in taking in the Game Spirit as a novice, and like that pair, he appeals as the likeliest winner, for all his only experience on heavy ground came in France where the description of the ground was exaggerated (Timeform called it soft).

Lulamba made a big impression as a juvenile hurdler, even in defeat at Cheltenham where he battled like a tiger to close Poniros down at the line, and his two wins over fences have shown him to have a very bright future. He gets 2lb weight for age against his rivals and although a Grade 1 winner, race conditions mean he picks up just half a penalty for his Henry VIII win, and he’s been well placed given the value of the contest.

His closest rival on ratings is Saint Segal but while that gelding handles soft ground, he’s been unplaced on both starts on heavy. I’ll be surprised if the ground is an issue to the progressive Lulamba, and he should win without fuss on his way to the Arkle.

3.20 William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) 2m 69yd

I personally think that Let It Rain has been let in lightly here and should take all the beating, but I’m having a saver on heavy-ground specialist Milldam, who is fairly treated and is the horse most likely to benefit from the heavy rain that has hit the track over the last week.

Let It Rain has won a heavy-ground bumper and looked potentially top class when following up in listed company, but she had a setback soon after and has been lightly raced since.

She very much caught the eye on her reappearance/handicap debut at Ascot in December when a half length third of 15 to Dance And Glance. That run was probably just needed after over a year’s absence and was required to get her qualified for this contest.

She’s better off with Dance And Glance now but more significant is the fact that she should now be ready for what is sure to have been her main aim (still needs one more run after this to be qualified for Cheltenham handicaps after this, for those looking to bet ante-post). I’d be surprised if Skelton – who rates her as highly as any mare he’s trained – will have left anything to chance here.

Milldam is an each-way pick on his form on heavy ground, and his form figures are 14141 since running in handicaps on such a surface, according to Timeform’s going assessment. It was soft when he was a creditable fifth at Windsor last time and the deeper ground will suit him better than most here.

Warwick Saturday

1.15 Oddschecker Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) 2m 5f 5yd

Jubilee Alpha has been expensive to follow on the whole, so while she should win this on the ratings, she’s not that hard to oppose after a trio of defeats this season when sent off at short odds. Hollygrove Cha Cha switches from fences now and she will relish the trip and the ground, making her the percentage call.

1.50 Oddschecker Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 54yd

Mambonumberfive has shown this season that he is completely effective on good ground but his best effort over hurdles came in the mud and he’s fancied to take another step forward back on a very soft surface. Steel Ally is a tough rival here, but Mambonumberfive has been progressing well and is hard to desert having shown a determined attitude to record his last two successes.

2.25 Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Guard Your Dreams is just 1lb higher than when winning on last season’s reappearance over course and distance and he’s got youth on his side as he tackles his first veterans’ chase. Le Milos is feared but hard to predict these days and the Twiston-Davies’ gelding is preferred at the prices.

Recommended

Kyntara 1.35 Newbury – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

L’Homme Presse 2.10 Newbury – 1pt win @ 6/4 (Bet365; 11/8 general)

Let It Rain 3.20 Newbury – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Hills; 5/2 Bet365)

Milldam 3.20 Newbury - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general – 5 places)