Epsom Saturday
1:00 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3 F&M) 1m 113y
Sparks Fly and the hard-pulling Spiritual should ensure a decent pace here, and the former would have a decent chance if we’re on genuinely soft ground by this point. Sparks Fly can’t have it deep enough, in truth, coming good in the autumn of last year, when winning three times at listed level in the mud.
She ran poorly when last seen, which is a slight concern, but could take some pegging back if allowed her own way up front.
Royal Dress was a slightly unlucky loser in this last year and will handle conditions, and you can forgive her below-par effort at York last time as winner See The Fire was a class apart, and she ran out of stamina over that 10 and a half furlong trip.
Back at a more suitable trip now, and with that run under her belt, she should make a bold effort to build on last season’s close third behind Breege.
1:35 Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) 1m 113y
A late absentee in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last week, Persica won on this card last year in similar conditions and looks to represent value in the Diomed having won well at Newmarket on his return.
The Lockinge proved too sharp a test on firm ground last time, and he is best at further than a mile, with his record at a mile one, a mile and a quarter reading 4113181; the only poor effort there came in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last October and he was better than ever when taking the Group 3 Earl of Sefton at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting.
This is more Persica’s level, and his only run at Epsom saw him winning the Lester Piggott Handicap over a mile and a quarter 12 months ago.
He was progressive last season when winning a listed race on quick ground at Ayr over that trip and he represents a solid bet with his ability to handle easy ground proven again at Newmarket, while the recent rain will also bring his stamina into play.
2:10 Betfred 3-y-o “Dash” Handicap 5f
The draw can have a big effect in these big-field Dash races at Epsom, with high numbers favoured on balance, but speed is the most important factor at a track that produced world records at the distance with most of the distance run downhill.
It’s also true that hold-up horses drawn high must trust to luck with few able to get a run on the favoured rail, and trouble in running common in large fields like this. Perhaps the high numbers will dominate here, but I think a better effort could be forthcoming from the speedy Acrisius, whose dam won plenty of races for connections, especially on soft ground.
He ran a stinker at York last time but shaped really well when collared late at Doncaster on his turf return and is normally very quick to stride. He appeals as the type to take well to Epsom and the middle of the track is a fine place to be for those with his early dash.
2:45 Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap 5f
There is some pace low to middle in this contest, but the main speed is among the high numbers, with a pocket of hold-up performers immediately wide of the likely front runners, and that makes me think that the high-drawn horses should dominate here, acknowledging that it isn’t always that simple.
Once again, a poor run at York must be forgiven, but Tees Spirit was bumped more than once in the early strides on the Knavesmire and I’m happy to put a line through that rare poor effort.
Winner of this corresponding race in 2022, the seven-year-old retains all his dash and his draw in stall 16 gives him a fine chance of bagging the stands rail. That will be a big advantage and he’s worth keeping the faith with, given past exploits.
3:30 Betfred Derby (In Honour
of HH Aga Khan IV) (Group 1) 1m 4f 6y
I want to be against 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court here, impressive as he was over a mile at Newmarket. Justify has sired a Derby winner in City Of Troy, but seems to produce mile, mile and a quarter performers horses in the main, and I reckon 10 furlongs could be his limit in stamina terms.
Many make the mistake of assuming Epsom is a sharp track but the climb from the Derby start to the top of the hill is as punishing as any flat track in the country, and non-stayers are always found out despite the largely downhill run in the latter half of the contest.
Delacroix is the choice of Ryan Moore, and he has progressed steadily with each start, and his defeat of both the Chester Vase and Lingfield Trial winners in the Ballysax means his form needs to be upgraded.
He is out of the brilliant US racemare Tepin, whose best form came at a mile, so there is a lingering doubt over his stamina for a mile and a half with speed as much as stamina the deciding factor in his easy win in the Leopardstown Derby Trial last time. That said, he looks well balanced and straightforward, which will aid his cause at Epsom
The Lion In Winter looked fit enough but couldn’t quite land a blow on Pride Of Arras in the Dante, but O’Brien has turned others around after poor preps, albeit having had more time to do so with Guineas flops Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy.
This will be the slowest ground he’s raced on, which also asks a question, and while I can’t rule him out, the recent vibes about him have been overwhelmingly negative, and I’m reluctantly passing him over.
Lambourn was beaten by Delacroix in the Ballysax, but he showed improvement on that run, and for the stiffer test of stamina, when winning the Chester Vase last month.
He responded well to pressure at Chester and is a horse who is well equipped for that long initial climb. He’s got just over two lengths to find with Delacroix and is likely to get much closer, particularly with soft ground to suit, and if there is a stamina doubt about Delacroix, then he looks best placed to take advantage.
Aga Khan’s colours
Midak has been supplemented, and it looks intriguing that he should carry the Aga Khan’s colours in a race run in his honour. That may be a big pointer, but I can’t help feel that not having a runner in these famous colours would be an omission, and while I respect the form of his Prix Greffulhe win last time, his two turf wins have come in small fields and I’m not certain he will relish the inevitable bumper cars in this big field.
Pride Of Arras lacks experience but was impressive when taking the Dante and looks likely to improve again, particularly at a mile and a half.
He looks the best of the home contingent and stall 16 isn’t a negative given the initial right-turn the field takes which favours those drawn high as a general rule.
He’s more likely to handle Epsom than York runner-up Damysus, who has yet to reach his peak. Stanhope Gardens is another who will do better in time, but is stepping up fully half a mile in distance and his trial came too close to this race for comfort.
Persica 1:45 Epsom – 2pts win 5/2 (Bet365, 9/4 William Hill)
Acrisius 2:10 Epsom – 1pt e/w 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral – 5 places)
Tees Spirit 2:45 Epsom – 1pt e/w 18/1 (general – 5 places)
Lambourn 3:30 Epsom – 1.5pts e/w
10/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 4 places)