Ascot Saturday

1.30 Ladbrokes 1965 Chase (Grade 2) 2m 5f 13yd

Il Est Francais has been the subject of bullish headlines but absolutely has to be opposed having run below his best on five of his seven starts since bursting into the British consciousness when winning the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton in December 2023.

He did win over hurdles at Lyon in April, but that was a Class 3 contest and he didn’t need to run close to his old form to win. It should be remembered that he was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles prior to going chasing, so I see no reason to give allowances for that, or for a defeat over the smaller obstacles at Compiegne in May, when no match for Nicky Henderson’s Aston Martini.

Even Il Est Francais’s second in last year’s King George isn’t as good as it appears, accepting that a repeat could well be enough to win here. He was allowed his own way up front and while defeat to Banbridge looked very good form at the time, none of the principals did much to advertise the form afterwards. A known tendency to break blood vessels, he was reported to have suffered quite a serious pulmonary haemorrhage at Auteuil a year ago and I think that factor counts against him fulfilling the highest of hopes for him.

Backing Gidleigh Park is not without its concerns, with Harry Fry’s gelding suffering an irregular heartbeat on his chase debut here last year. He quickly put that behind him when bolting up at Windsor and improved again when second to Impaire Et Passe in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree in April. He’s open to further improvement having effectively raced just twice over fences and if he doesn’t get into a battle for the lead, he should run a big race.

2.05 Windsor Horse Rangers Berkshire National Handicap Chase 3m 5f 75yd

Several of these clashed in a handicap chase at Fontwell four weeks ago, with Lord Accord beating Largy Poet. My Silver Lining was back in fourth, and while Emma Lavelle’s mare was beaten 10 lengths there, she shaped as if needing the run after eight months off, and probably found three and a quarter miles at a sharp track a sharp enough test.

She won the Classic Chase over three miles and five furlongs at Warwick a couple of seasons ago and has belatedly slipped back below that winning mark. She went well for a long way in the Midlands National last season and there are reasons to believe she can resume winning ways having been given a lifeline by the assessor.

2.40 Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 3f 63yd

Wodhooh will be hard to beat here and she has been a remarkable success story since switched to hurdles. In saying that, she will be a short price at the head of the market, and her presence makes for an attractive shape for each-way betting.

Nemean Lion could be the one to offer best value for the shrewdies, especially as Kerry Lee has shown signs of turning a corner of late; she has only had one winner in the last couple of weeks, but two others have capsized when clear and sure to collect, and the horses are running better than they have for some time.

Nemean Lion himself has been a reliable sort over hurdles, winning three on the spin last season before a rare flop in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

His best effort came when landing the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell when he had Salver and Blueking d’Oroux behind; that pair finished first and second in another Grade 2 on the final day of the season at Sandown, and Nemean Lion is undervalued on that form. He doesn’t stay three miles when stamina is at a premium, but this trip suits and he is likely to make the frame at a double-figure price.

3.15 Castello Banfi Hurst Park Handicap Chase 2m 172yd

Teddy Blue looked a much more tractable character when winning here last month and Harry Derham admitted that he had made mistakes with him last season, saying: “I was trying to train him like a normal horse and one day it occurred to me that he’s a bit mad and I needed to understand that. It took me a year to get to know him.”

Whatever Derham had done looked to work last time and as long as he can keep Teddy Blue happy, the gelding will keep winning races.

Haydock Saturday

1.15 Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f 191yd

Florida Dreams was back to his best at Carlisle last time, looking sure to win until collared on the run-in by the strong stayer Hartington, with Siog Geal third in a strong race for the track. It would be unfair to say that he didn’t get home over the two-and-a-half-mile trip, but the stiff finish just counted against him, and he is likely to be well-suited by this intermediate trip. On the other hand, favourite Kabral Du Mathan still needs to prove that he stays beyond a bare two miles and Nicky Richards’s experienced hurdler is preferred at the prices.

1.50 Betfair Exchange

Graduation Chase 2m 5f 127yd

The Jukebox Man made a great start over fences with wins at Newbury and in the Kauto Star at Kempton. He’s the likeliest winner here having missed the rest of last season with a minor injury picked up on the gallops, but I think he’s a little too short here and the Kauto Star form, in particular, is not as strong as it first appeared. He may well win anyway, but I’m happy to take a chance on the long-absent Knappers Hill, who hasn’t been seen since landing a Grade 2 novice at Wincanton in November 2023.

It’s not hard to pick holes in that Wincanton contest with runner-up Lady Adare a disappointment on the whole, but Knappers Hill also shaped very well when second to the experienced Unexpected Party on his chase debut at Chepstow, and this Grade 2 hurdle winner always appealed as the type to develop into a high-class chaser. His absence is an obvious concern, but connections clearly believe that he’s no lost cause and his price is big enough to chance.

2.25 Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) 3m 58yd

There are plenty to be positive about here, but none more so than Hartington, who impressed when beating Florida Dreams at Carlisle and has shaped several times as if we’d only see the best of him when tackling three miles. A mark of 122 is fair on what he’s achieved to date, but I’m convinced that there is improvement in him simply for the step up in distance, and he showed a thoroughly likeable attitude to grind out victory last time. His stable is in fine form and Hartington could prove leniently treated now his stamina is drawn out more fully.

3.00 Betfair Chase (Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) 3m 1f 125yd

Grey Dawning stands out in the Betfair Chase and should be good enough to reverse last season’s form with Royale Pagaille on better ground. On top of that, Royale Pagaille’s win 12 months ago came at a time when Venetia Willams’s chasers were winning with regularity. So far this autumn, Djelo is the only chaser from the King’s Caple yard to have even managed a place, and ground no worse than yielding is lively enough for the mudlark at the best of times.

When Grey Dawning ran in this last year, Dan Skelton said that it was offensive for journalists to even ask about the possibility of him running in the King George, saying the race would come at least six weeks too soon, before changing his mind. It turns out he was right in the first place, and he’s likely to be more patient with the son of Flemensfirth. A different kind of patience will be employed by connections of Iroko, who will be primed only for the Grand National and sure to be looked after with his Aintree handicap mark in mind.

Recommended

Gidleigh Park 1.30 Ascot - 1pt win @ 9/2 (general)

My Silver Lining 2.05 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 12/1 general - 4 places)

Nemean Lion 2.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365 1/5 odds; 18/1 Hills 1/4 odds - 3 places)

Knappers Hill 1.50 Haydock - 1pt win @ 9/1 (general)

Hartington 2.25 Haydock - 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (SkyBet 6 places; general 5 places)