Ascot Saturday
2.22 Cornish Orchards Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 7f 213yd
Haatem stayed the ten furlongs of the Wolferton Stakes well last time to become a dual Royal Ascot winner, but a mile still appeals as his best trip and he should get the perfect tow into this with both Quddwah and Point Lynas providing pace from the inside stalls. The selection can track the leaders into the straight before peeling outside to mow them down, or at least that’s what it says in my script.
4.50 LK Bennett Butterfly Mark Heritage Handicap 5f
He does most of his racing over six furlongs, but Holkham Bay had no problem dropping to the minimum trip when winning the Shergar Cup Dash over course and distance last season, and he looked better than ever when a close fourth in the Wokingham last time, once again underlining the suitability of this track.
He shaped better than the bare result to boot, being one of a group of six to race close to the stands side rail and faring much the best of that cohort, with the next home being Zoum Zoum in 13th. A repeat of that effort will make him very hard to beat in a slightly weaker race.
Newmarket Saturday
1.40 Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes 7f
Charlie Appleby has won five of the last eight runnings of this fillies’ event, most recently with subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower, but neither of his pair make the same sort of pedigree appeal of last year’s winner, and I prefer the claims of Orion’s Belt.
She was green despite being heavily backed on debut at Salisbury where she was beaten three-parts of a length and she will have learnt enough from that first day at school to win a maiden. Her Lowther Stakes entry at York next month confirms that she is held in high regard and she sets a fair standard for the newcomers to aim at.
2.12 Trustatrader 20th Anniversary Fillies’ Handicap 7f
Miss Nightfall was only sixth in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot but that tells little of the story, as she was left poorly placed after diving left from her wide stall and then met interference from Zgartha after two furlongs, doing well to make up a lot of ground from that point to be beaten less than three and a half lengths in a race dominated by those who raced on the far side of the track. She is a strong traveller who will not be inconvenienced by a return to seven furlongs here and looks well handicapped having been nudged up just 1lb for that luckless effort.
2.50 Bet365 Bunbury Cup 7f
More Thunder is an obvious starting point for the Bunbury Cup, assuming his draw in stall 13 of 13 is no disadvantage, and he has shaped on all three starts for William Haggas as if seven furlongs might well prove his optimum. On the downside, he’s a 6/4 shot for a traditionally competitive handicap and that’s a very short price at a track where the draw bias can be strong, if unpredictable.
Run Boy Run is not as well treated as the favourite, having gone up 5lb despite failing to win in five starts this season, but he is running consistently and with credibility in competitive handicaps and could get the run of things as the most obvious front-runner in this field.
He kept on well despite being drawn well away from the main action in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot (drawn 2 on far side with first six home drawn 28, 29, 32, 30, 25 & 31). That is clearly a much better run than it looks on paper and his ability to maintain a strong gallop is a big positive.
3.25 Bet365 Mile Handicap 1m
A theme appears to be developing here. Fifth Column was best of the low-drawn horses in a Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot in which the first five came from the highest seven draws. That effort can be marked up, while it also helped frank the form of his win in the Esher Cup at Sandown, where he beat Seraph Gabriel, himself beaten just a nose in a Royal Ascot handicap subsequently.
Fifth Column can race off the same mark as for the Britannia and also has the benefit of Ryan Moore in the saddle, so looks the best option in a similar contest with no draw worries this time.
4.35 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) 6f
I don’t subscribe to the theory that Notable Speech will benefit from the drop to sprinting, for all that he’s been too keen at a mile on his last two starts. He could bounce back to win, but I prefer the proven sprinting ability of Flora Of Bermuda, who has been a picture of consistency over the past year.
She ran another fine race when third of 14 to Lazzat in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and meets nothing quite of the calibre of the first two here. She is vulnerable only to the very best in the division, and this race does look weaker on paper than the one she contested at Ascot last time.
Of the others, Believing is almost certainly worth forgiving a rare poor effort in the same Ascot race when poorly drawn, and she is another with solid claims on the balance of her form over the past year or so.
York Saturday
2.35 John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed) 5f
Washington Heights has often found himself unable to dominate in group company but is dropped in class and will relish the speed test here.
He was beaten less than half a length in the Duke of York Stakes here 14 months ago on the back of his win in Newmarket’s Abernant Stakes, and a return to the tactics he utilised in those races will make him very hard to catch at this level of competition.
3.10 John Smith’s Cup Handicap 1m 2f 56yd
I hinted a couple of weeks ago that I was hoping to see Archivist and his win here that day got him the penalty he needed to make the cut for this valuable prize.
He will benefit from the step up beyond a mile on pedigree and looks the sort to make his mark in Pattern company before long.
He reminds me of another Cheveley Park chestnut in Medicean, who was well beaten in this contest back in 2000 before running third in the Sussex Stakes on his next start.
Hopefully, Archivist can enjoy more luck in this race than Medicean did, and if he turns out half as good then connections will be very happy.
Recommended
Haatem 2.22 Ascot 1pt win 5/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Holkham Bay 4.50 Ascot 1pt win 4/1 (Hills; 7/2 general)
Run Boy Run 2.50 Newmarket 1pt e/w 10/1 (Hills, BetVictor – 4 places)
Fifth Colum 3.25 Newmarket 1pt win 11/4 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Flora Of Bermuda 4.35 Newmarket 2pts win 11/2 (Ladbrokes; 5/1 general)
Archivist 3.10 York 2pts win 3/1 (general)