York Saturday

1.50 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m 177y

This race hinges to a large degree on the participation of Bullet Point, who won the Clipper Handicap here earlier in the week and would be good enough to make a huge impact here if over his exertions. It’s rare for William Haggas to go to the well so quickly with a potential group horse, though, so there is every chance he will be withdrawn.

Trying to find a horse who appeals with or without Bullet Point isn’t easy, but King’s Gambit fits the bill. He has tried a mile and a half a couple of times without looking a stayer over the trip and his best form is over 10 furlongs. This would be a rare outing for him over shorter, but the long York straight compensates for that and he will appreciate the strong pace likely should Bullet Point run.

In the absence of the Haggas gelding, a potentially messy race is the main concern, but Skukuza and Bowmark have also set a good pace on recent starts, and it’s unlikely to develop into a sprint. King’s Gambit ran a blinder in the Group 2 York Stakes here last season, having to make his own running and only reeled in very late by Alflaila and also showed his liking for the track when beaten less than half a length in the Great Voltigeur by Los Angeles. The shorter trip is a query, but the York Stakes effort in particular suggests it may even be a catalyst for better.

2.25 Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188y

It was a surprise to me to see Daiquiri Bay dropped to a mile and a quarter for the Kincsem Handicap at Goodwood last time, and more surprising to see him get his head in front two furlongs out before finishing fourth in a hugely competitive handicap. I was initially disappointed that he couldn’t maintain the gallop having got through to lead there but replays of the race and analysis of the sectionals show that he did, but found a couple able to accelerate better than him at the trip.

Daiquiri Bay stayed a mile and a half well when faring best of those held up in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, and shaped much better than an eigth-place finish would suggest having been given too much to do behind the top-notch prospect Merchant. He had been shaping as if stamina was very much his forte in previous races, which is hardly surprising as his dam, Strawberry Martini, was a winner over a mile and three quarters and two miles for William Muir.

This longer trip is certain to suit Daiquiri Bay who remains well handicapped on a mark of 93. He won over an extended mile and a quarter at Chester in May, beating Mister Winston (now rated 94) by five lengths – the equivalent of 10lb – at level weights, while he had the 81-rated Criminal another two lengths in arrears, and 90-rated Marnier a length behind that. The last-named, who hasn’t delivered on early promise, is a dangerous horse to rate that race through, but the others all show that Daiquiri Bay was given a lenient mark and he is still able to utilise that having not been able to showcase his stamina since.

3.00 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1) 7f

Formerly owned in a partnership headed by Peter Maher, Maranoa Charlie won the Prix Djebel on his return and the Group 3 Prix Paul de Moussac at Longchamp in June to show himself a smart performer over this specialist trip. Since then he’s been sold privately to Bond Thoroughbred and been beaten narrowly by Woodshauna in the Group 1 Prix Jean

Prat over seven furlongs at Deauville, albeit finishing just in front of The Lion In Winter. He has form on soft ground but has plenty of speed and seems likely to be better suited by a sound surface, having taken a heavier beating from Woodshauna in the Prix Texanita (Time For Sandals second) in May when the ground was sticky.

A classy front-runner with a potent blend of speed and stamina ideal for seven furlongs, Maranoa Charlie looks an excellent buy for the Bonds and he looks to have form claims second to none among the specialists.

Rosallion is the danger given his top-class form at a mile, but his non-appearance in the Prix Jacques le Marois despite assurances that he was an intended runner sounds a discordant note for me, and while he ought to be as effective dropping back to seven furlongs, plenty of milers have been found out when trying the same feat.

3.35 Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188y

Low draws can do well in the Ebor as shown by Magical Zoe (1) and Mustajeer (2), but it’s also true that seven of the last 10 winners have come from double-digits, and that even the highest draws can be overcome, Absurde (24), Trawlerman (20), and Muntahaa (21). Of those to have won from wide draws, all three were kept very wide on the track before tacking over after a few furlongs, and that has proven an effective tactic in the recent era.

Majestic Warrior has the speed to take up the track position he needs from stall 17 and is a half-brother to Ebor winner Fujairah Prince as well as Stayers Hurdle hero Nichols Canyon from the family of Clive Brittain’s middle-distance stars Luso and Warrsan.

His trainer James Tate has long believed him to be a blacktype performer but his racecourse outings have been limited due to minor physical niggles, making him hard to train. He has only had four starts to date, but made a mockery of an opening mark of 89 when bolting up on his handicap debut over a mile and a half at Thirsk in April.

Runner-up that day, albeit beaten four and a quarter lengths was Knightswood, who has won two handicaps since, including off a 4lb higher mark than at Thirsk on his latest start. That pays quite a big compliment to the selection, who looked short of peak fitness when winning at Thirsk, and for whom a 9lb rise looks insufficient on the basis of the subsequent efforts of the runner-up.

Majestic Warrior could hardly be any less exposed, having just his second handicap start and his third start ever on turf. It looks like Tate has aimed him at this race specifically since that winning return, with his new mark pretty much guaranteed to gain him a place in the field, and while it’s a risk to back horses with this sort of profile, it’s a risk with a significant reward when it works out.

Recommended

King’s Gambit 1.50 York - 1pt win 5/2 (general)

Daiquiri Bay 2.25 York - 1pt e/w 17/2 (Hills ¼-odds 3 places; 8/1 general 4 places)

Maranoa Charlie 3.00 York - 1pt e/w 15/2 (Hills; 7/1 general)

Majestic Warrior 3.35 York - 1.5pts e/w 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral - 5 places; 14/1 Bet365, Unibet 6 places)