Kempton Saturday

1.10 Ladbrokes “New Horse Racing Bet Builder” Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Hold The Serve looks a fairly solid favourite here, although it’s a little concerning that Olly Murphy has a surprisingly modest record at Kempton, with just two winners over hurdles here since being granted a licence.

That’s probably an anomaly given how well Murphy places his horses, but it’s enough to dent my confidence in the market leader.

Fasol was a creditable fourth in the Lanzarote Hurdle over course and distance last time, but didn’t quite see the race out and probably finds this trip stretching his stamina, although it could be argued that he did well given he was on the sharp end in a well-run race, with first and second coming from well off the pace.

Grenadier Jed has improved markedly since stepped up beyond two miles over hurdles, as his bumper efforts suggested he would, and he showed he was still on the up when pulling clear with another progressive rival at Chepstow last time.

Winner of his first three starts in handicaps, he’s clearly been a nightmare for the assessor to judge and promises to progress further for a yard in fine form. He gets weight from the majority of his rivals here and the slight step up in trip to two miles and five furlongs promises to suit him well.

1.45 Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

One Horse Town beat Precious Man at Cheltenham in December by three and three-quarter lengths and wasn’t discredited when third to Minella Study and Winston Junior in the Triumph Hurdle Trial there in December, so it may surprise some that he’s a much bigger price than Precious Man in their rematch.

There are a couple of things worth considering regarding that price differential, though, the first one being the fact that Precious Man was conceding 5lb last time and meets his old rival on equal terms now, while he looked the likeliest winner until losing his back legs on landing over the last flight.

That’s enough to suggest they ought to be the same price here, but there is a good chance that Precious Man has benefited from wind surgery since that race, winning over this course and distance last month from a pair who have since franked the form by winning themselves.

I’m not sure I’d want to be a backer of Precious Man at around 8/11, but I do agree that he should be favoured here and he’s open to more improvement based on his lightly-raced profile and the possibility that he will reap greater reward from his wind-op than he did first time, with that pattern fairly well established among those to have a mid-season procedure.

2.25 Ladbrokes Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 110yd

Jax Junior has easily the best piece of form on offer over fences, that coming when defying a mark of 139 at Sandown last time, but it’s a worry that he was reported to have bled when beaten prior to that, and it’s hard to back any horse with such a history at odds-on.

Of course, there are differing degrees, and a small nosebleed is of much less concern that a pulmonary haemorrhage, but given all I know is that the vet at Ascot said he bled from the nose after the Noel Novices’ Chase, I find it hard to get involved.

Jasmine Bliss has something to find on form, but has certainly made a bright start over fences, running well in a competitive course and distance handicap on her chase debut, before landing the Listed Lady Protectress Mares’ Chase at Huntingdon last time.

It could be argued that the Huntingdon form is held down by the presence of rank outsider Piper Park in second, but that mare is lightly raced and cost a small fortune after winning her only start in points for Harley Dunne, so I’d be inclined to take a more positive view.

Jasmine Bliss has jumped notably well on both starts and is clearly well suited to a flat, right-handed track, so may be able to provide a minor shock.

3.00 Ladbrokes Dovecote

Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

Double Measure heads the market after an easy win at Huntingdon, but that was a thin race, with third-placed Pertemps running a stinker at Southwell on Wednesday and the other three to have reappeared since running in that race all soundly beaten. Klub De Reve is respected after an easy win over course and distance last time, but at bigger odds I’m inclined to risk the promising Matiwo, who made up for a fall in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in December when making all for a facile win at Newbury last time.

Matiwo won by seven lengths at Newbury from previous winner Apollon Forlonge, but it would be no exaggeration to say that it might have been 27 as Ciaran Gethings never asked for everything at any stage of the race, but merely allowed his mount to bowl along at a swinging gallop before standing up in his irons half a furlong out, as his mount eased clear for a taking success.

Rating that performance through the runner-up doesn’t give a big figure to Matiwo, but for a horse who had looked headstrong before falling on his previous start, the transformation was remarkable and he looks the sort to do better still now he’s relaxing.

3.35 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 3m

Leader In The Park will need to run better here than he did over shorter at Kempton last time, but he’s largely reliable and should bounce back from a rare laboured effort. The question with him is whether he will stay, but I’ve long been of the opinion that this test will suit him, despite his tendency to find less than expected in the closing stages of his races.

Despite that quirk, he’s won two of his seven starts in handicap chases and produced his best effort in this sphere when second to Booster Bob in the Peter O’Sullevan Memorial over an extended two and three-quarter miles at Newbury in November, the longest trip he’s faced over fences.

When he won over two and a half miles here last season, he surprised me with how well he rallied after making his only mistake at the last, and the emphasis on jumping here suits him.

The only time he’s raced over three miles was in a point-to-point at Tallow, which he won by 56 lengths from Hostile Hotelier, now rated 116 over hurdles, and his tactical speed at the trip could prove decisive.

One concern would be genuinely soft/heavy ground, but good to soft is probably ideal, and he should go well for a yard that continues in excellent form.

Newcastle Saturday

2.43 Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase 4m 1f 56yd

Fortunate Man has produced his best efforts over fences beyond three miles and it may pay to forgive a slightly disappointing effort behind Pic Roc at Sandown last month (Mr Vango pulled up) and focus on his previous win at Aintree when he beat next-time winner Kelce strictly on merit.

He ran very well over a marathon trip at Windsor last season and gives the impression this very stiff test will suit him well.

Recommended:

Grenadier Jed @ 11/2 (general), 1.10 Kempton – 1pt win

Jasmine Bliss @ 6/1 (general),

2.25 Kempton – 1pt win

Matiwo @ 11/1 (general – 4 places), 3.00 Kempton – 1pt e/w

Leader In The Park @ 14/1 (general – 4 places), 3.35 Kempton - 1pt e/w