Sandown Saturday

1.50 Coral Charge (Group 3) 5f 10yd

All the early dash in the Charge is amongst the low numbers and traditional thinking would suggest that one of those drawn on the far rail would be able to dominate. I think the rail bias isn’t what it was, however, and if there’s a disputed lead then the race will set up for one finishing high, wide and handsome. Rumstar came from behind when winning the race last year and, if you’re willing to forgive a poor run at Royal Ascot, then he makes plenty of appeal to follow up.

He did finish behind Asfoora and Shagraan in the King Charles III Stakes last time, but was never in the hunt from a bad draw and the simple fact is that he seems to hate Royal Ascot, running there four times and failing to trouble the judge on any, including when finishing down the field prior to winning this race 12 months ago. His poor effort is forgivable and it means he’ll be a point or two bigger than he ought to be as a result.

2.25 Coral Challenge (Handicap) 1m

It’s possible to make all here, as Classic did in this race last year, but it’s not unusual for them to get racing too soon over course and distance and I thought this race might set up perfectly for Tribal Chief, who has finished best of all to be placed in both the Lincoln at Doncaster and the Victoria Cup at Ascot this term.

He does sometimes hit top gear too late, but runs well so often that it can only be a matter of time before everything drops for him. River King is arguably the only guaranteed front runner in the race, but there are several who like to press the pace and I envisage the other riders not wanting to give Sean Levey any peace in front. That should ensure the end-to-end gallop Tribal Chief needs, and if Saffie Osborne can steer him away from trouble in the straight, his finishing kick can bring him an overdue victory.

3.00 Coral Distaff (Listed) (Fillies) 1m

There are good reasons to oppose the top of the market here with Pacific Mission not matching her excellent juvenile form in two runs this season, for all she can be forgiven for her run at Epsom behind Sparks Fly last time. The Gosdens have booked Ryan Moore for Sacred Ground, but the daughter of Kingman has flattered to deceive too often for my liking, trading at odds-on for the third time on her latest outing, but not going through with her effort.

One who certainly doesn’t shirk a battle is Estissa, who won with far more in hand than the margins suggest in a Wolverhampton handicap last time. Held up in a falsely-run race, she did well to reel the leaders in as easily as she did and then forced herself through a narrow gap, when it looked like she was going to be blocked by the placed horses.

I thought she showed real determination there and the experience will have done her no end of good. That was her first run out of novice company and this is a marked step up in class, but she looks a filly of real potential, and I see her as excellent value in the context of this race.

3.35 Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) 1m 1f 209yd

Tactics (but not team tactics, surely) will play a part here, although the best horse in the race is Constitution River, whose Chester form has been franked in blacktype races by the placed horses and who showed a good attitude to win the Prix du Jockey Club from stablemate Hawk Mountain. A fast pace will suit him, given he has the stamina for further, so I’d expect the Ballydoyle pacemakers to go hard and I don’t see Ryan Moore sitting too far off the pace.

However it pans out, his innate class should see him through, with one of the hold-up horses likely to come through for second. Saddadd is the obvious forecast option, but I’d not be surprised if a relentless gallop brought King’s Gambit into the equation and I could see him stealing a place against better rivals in that scenario. I’ll be having a small exacta to find out.

Newmarket Saturday

2.05 Betway Bet £10 Get £40 Handicap 1m 6f

Three of these ran at Royal Ascot and the result may depend on whether those exertions have left a mark. If not, then the one to beat is the progressive Arc Ole Ole, as Dylan Cunha’s charge ran a race full of promise when three lengths fifth behind Enceladus in the King George V Handicap over a mile and a half, doing all his best work late, after having to wait for a gap to appear in the straight.

That race can sometimes suit hold-up types, but did not pan out that way this year and he deserves credit beyond what he achieved, having done best of those waited with on the day. He’s sure to appreciate this trip and can take this on his way to a bold showing in the Melrose at York next month, a race that looks tailor-made for him.

2.40 Betway Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) 1m 4f

The Lancashire Oaks in Suffolk might seem strange, but it’s not new as Turbo Linn won this race here for the late Alan Swinbank in 2007. Tiffany has the best form on offer and should take the world of beating, if taking to a visor.

That’s often a worry, but Sir Mark Prescott uses severe headgear well and, of three of the stable’s horses to sport a visor for the first time and start at single figures in the last two years, two have won.

Tiffany has been second in the Grosser Preis Von Bayern for the last two years and a repeat of her efforts in that Group 1 will be enough to see her home in front, in what isn’t a strong race for the level.

3.15 Betway Old Newton Cup Handicap 1m 4f

There is little doubt that Klassleader is the one to beat in the Old Newton Cup after his win at York last time, but 11/8 is a skinny price for a competitive handicap and there must be an each-way angle into the race, which makes more appeal.

Paddy The Squire has had his training issues, but improved markedly as a five-year-old, winning three times, and he looked better than ever when a luckless third in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot. He rarely fails to give his running and the Iain Jardine stable is in excellent form, saddling eight winners from his last 24 runners under both codes. Paddy The Squire may have little to hide from the assessor, but he comes here in top form and should make the frame.

Recommended

Rumstar 1.50 Sandown - 1pt win @ 11/4 (general)

Tribal Chief 2.25 Sandown - 1pt win @ 4/1 (general)

Estissa 3.00 Sandown - 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes/Coral; 8/1 general)

Constitution River to beat Saddadd/King’s Gambit 3.35 Sandown - 2x 0.5pt Exactas

Paddy The Squire 3.15 Newmarket - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365, Boyles - 4 pl; 13/2 general)