Wincanton Saturday
1.10 Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At BetMGM.co.uk Handicap Chase 2m 4f 35y
The ground was described as “A1” by the Wincanton clerk earlier in the week. “He means it’s like the A1” was the response of one press-room wag, and firm ground saw the previous fixture at the Somerset track lost so, even with rain overnight, the going is expected to be lively.
That will suit Bourbali, who has form figures in Class 3 handicaps over jumps on good or quicker ground which read 11313. He should benefit from a recent outing at Kempton when beaten by Bad and Gabriel’s Getaway, form already franked by the runner-up who went close in a premier handicap chase at Ascot last weekend from a 7lb higher mark. Bourbali is actually 2lb lower here and just above his last winning mark, so can have no excuses.
1.45 Paul & Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f 82y
Jubilee Alpha is a smashing mare who benefited from a step up to two and a half miles when winning at Cheltenham in April and she will be a better performer with that novice season under her belt. She has the scope to carry top weight and a further step up in distance should eke out further improvement, making her a confident pick despite conceding lumps of weight on her seasonal return.
2.23 Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 35y
No betting interest here, with Blueking d’Oroux expected to improve markedly for his first experience over fences, but priced accordingly, and it’s a similar story in the Elite Hurdle, with Rubaud impossible to oppose but offering only the chance of an ulcer and a 20% return on investment for brave backers. The ulcer looks a certainty.
3.30 64th Badger Beers Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 3m 1f 30y
A small field and quick ground is a combination which suggests that the Badger Beer will not provide its usual test of stamina, and I think a tactical race would suit Soul Seeker ideally.
His best effort to date came over two miles when winning the Desert Orchid at Kempton, but he stays two miles, five furlongs on a park course, and could get away with the longer trip here, either by setting a modest pace in front, or looking to pounce late off a slow gallop. The fact that he’s tactically versatile is another positive, and he’s the percentage call in a race that defies traditional analysis.
Aintree Saturday
12.55 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle 3m 149y
There are stamina concerns over Impose Toi and Crebilly and while Katate Dori was much improved over fences last year, he is poorly treated on the basis of his form over hurdles prior to that. The Lord Maid looks the safest call given she’s unexposed at the trip but proved her stamina by winning at Ayr in the spring. She could have more to offer and would benefit from a win to beat the ballot in March.
14.05 Visit RacingTV.com Handicap Chase 1m 7f 176y
Mambonumberfive was much improved when winning the Grade 2 Adonis at Kempton in February, but the huge gelding found the ground too lively at Aintree in April. Always considered a chaser in the making, this 17hh brute did remarkably well to win at all in juvenile hurdles and is surely going to be much better now tackling bigger obstacles.
That has always been the aim and Ben Pauling has minded the son of Born To Sea as a result. His patience will surely pay off, and time may show that Mambonumberfive is very well handicapped indeed, and even if just in need of the run, as Pauling has intimated, he may still be up to winning with an 8lb four-year-old allowance.
14.40 Grand Sefton Handicap Chase 2m 5f 19y
Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have done well aiming horses at Aintree and while they also have Gaboriot in the field, I think their best chance lies with the exciting White Rhino, who looked a good chasing prospect when winning his first two starts over fences before failing to compete at Kempton and Doncaster.
His last effort was simply too bad to be true and he’s been given plenty of time to get over it, so with a handicap record in the autumn which reads 12111, he’s expected to get back to form and he appeals as the type who will adapt well to the Aintree fences.
Doncaster Saturday
1.25 Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Wentworth Stakes (Listed) 6f 2y
Apollo One should come close in a competitive race. He holds his form well and handles any ground, so heavy going won’t be an issue and his latest short-head second of nine to Annaf in the Bengough Stakes at Ascot shows him to be as good as ever. A repeat of that effort may well be enough here, acknowledging that whoever wins will need an element of luck in the run.
3.10 Virgin Bet A Good Bet Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 1m 2f 43y
Only a handful of these have winning form in the conditions and should pay to find a mudlark guaranteed to give her running than concentrating on ratings, with the race often going against the form book due to the time of year and underfoot conditions. Ciara Pearl has it to do on the numbers, but she is a dual winner at this trip in testing ground and has been running with credit of late. She finished two and a half lengths behind Anna Swan in the John Musker Stakes at Yarmouth recently and is 2lb better off now.
While she is strictly held on weights and measures, there shouldn’t be a great deal between the pair under the conditions. Despite that, there is a huge disparity of price and Ciara Pearl has backed that effort up when a close second in the Grassroots Middle-Distance Handicap final at Nottingham. She was attempting to concede 24lb to the winner there and typically did her best work late, offering hope that she can gallop into the places here despite the tougher assignment,
3.45 Virgin Bet November Handicap 1m 3f 197y
Metier is older than ideal for this, but the nine-year-old has an excellent record when racing in flat handicaps on soft or heavy ground. Since joining Harry Fry from Andy Slattery, that record reads two runs and two wins, this race in 2022 and the Chester Cup the following season.
He’s lightly raced since but has largely run creditably and has slipped to a mark 2lb lower than for his last win. His ability to handle desperate ground has long been his strongest feature and, with Nicola Burns claiming a valuable 5lb, I can see him going out on a high, with this race having the hallmarks of a planned swansong.
Recommended
Bourbali 1.10 Wincanton – 1pt win @ 4/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
Soul Seeker 3.30 Wincanton – 1pt win @ 15/2 (general)
Mambonumberfive 2.05 Aintree – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Hills - 11/4 general)
White Rhino 2.40 Aintree – 1pt win @ 11/2 (Hills, Ladbrokes - 5/1 general)
Ciara Pearl 3.10 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365 – 25/1 general) 4 places
Metier 3.45 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) 5 places