York Saturday

1.50 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m 177yd

Several can be given realistic chances in an open race for the Strensall, but the one who is rock-solid in conditions is Persica, who boasts form figures in listed/Group 3 company at a mile to a mile and a quarter of 311142521, improving to 1121 when going left-handed.

He handles fast ground but has won five of his 10 starts on good or softer below Group 2 level, making the frame in the others. He has his ceiling in terms of class and is vulnerable to prospective Group 1 horses, but it’s hard to see him out of the frame given his consistency.

He was unplaced on his only previous run here but that was in the big sales race as a juvenile when simply finding six furlongs on fast ground too sharp.

2.25 Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188yd

Andrew Balding has been the trainer to follow this week and he has an excellent record in the Melrose, winning it last year with Tarriance, with Valley Forge in 2021 and the previous year with Coltrane. This year he saddles Who’s Lope and Mythical Bay, with the latter the selection.

He has improved gradually this season as his stamina has been drawn out, winning over a mile and a half at Newbury and following up at Newmarket when upped to a mile and three-quarters last time, albeit having to battle to get the better of Magnetude by a nose.

Mythical Bay’s dam, Fact Or Folklore was a useful stayer for Willie McCreery, winning three times and running her best races when second in the Saval Beg Stakes behind Order Of St George and when a close fourth in the Loughbrown Stakes over two miles at the Curragh in the mud. She has already produced Statement, winner of the Group 3 Concorde Stakes on soft ground at Tipperary and Meld Stakes winner Self Belief, who also relished ease underfoot.

Mythical Bay has shown form on yielding ground and gives the impression he will do better still in a strongly run staying handicap. It’s notable that Andrew Balding has entered him for the Irish Cesarewitch and he is one to follow with his stable going so well.

3.00 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1) 7f

Notable Speech is the pick on ratings in the City of York but is a dyed-in-the-wool miler, with 16 of his 17 lifetime starts coming at that trip, the only exception when unplaced in the July Cup last summer. On the basis that seven furlongs is a specialist’s trip, he looks opposable and the one who appeals most given the conditions is Ten Bob Tony.

The Queen Anne Stakes winner was having a rare run at a mile when scoring at Ascot and was suited by the way the race panned out, but he backed that up with a close fourth in the Sussex Stakes and looks better than ever after a stuttering start to the season.

He won the Tattenham Corner Stakes at Epsom prior to Royal Ascot and I doubt the return to seven furlongs in a race likely to be run at strong gallop will be any inconvenience.

Satono Reve would go down as an unlikely stayer away from fast ground, while the going is a worry for Lake Forest, who was second in this last year and won the Lennox at Goodwood last month.

I can see Lennox runner-up Rogue Diplomat turning the tables on ground softer than good, and he would be my idea of the best alternative to Ten Bob Tony at the prices. He’s been supplemented for the race which suggests connections fancy their chances of grabbing a share of the valuable prizemoney.

3.35 Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188yd

Magical Zoe took this from stall one a couple of years ago but a trawl through the Ebor results over a longer period shows that low numbers tend to fare worse than those drawn middle to wide, and the idea that high-drawn runners are at a disadvantage here is a myth as shown by wins for Sesenta (2009), Dirar (2010), Muntahaa (2018), Trawlerman (2022), Absurde (2023) and Ethical Diamond (2025), all of whom were drawn 20 or higher.

In fact, only three horses have won from single digit draws in the past twenty runnings and none on ground softer than good. It makes sense to take a couple of swings at the race with this unusual draw bias in mind.

Furthur isn’t an obvious choice on this season’s form but the handicapper has given him a chance after an unsuitable test at Sandown on his latest start.

He has a big chance if able to repeat the form of his win in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes last August and although unplaced in the St Leger, he was only beaten four and a quarter lengths and is clearly well handicapped if he can refind that form, and he’s the type to thrive in a big-field handicap, shaping a lot better than the bare result in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

He could do with dead ground slowing his rivals as hie weakness is a lack of tactical pace, but he’s expected to stay on strongly granted a strong pace here. The fitting of cheek pieces will help him travel into the contest and while I’m no fan of the headgear, Andrew Balding is one of the better exponents of cheekpieces and his horses have a positive record overall when wearing them for the first time.

Square Necker is just about the least exposed runner along with the Willie Mullins-trained Love Me Tender and he has shown that this test should be ideal with wins over similar trips at Hamilton and Ayr this summer.

The son of Zarak has won with something in hand both times and although this represents a step up in class for the four-year-old, he looks most progressive, and an entry in the British Champions Long Distance Cup speaks highly of the esteem in which he’s held by Amo/Kevin Philippart de Foy.

Stall 23 seems to be putting punters off, but could well be the icing on his cake.

4.10 Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 6f

Coul Angel had Air Force One and Red Spells Danger behind when an excellent second over course and distance in the Sky Bet Dash and he’s equally effective on slower turf so gets the vote despite what would normally be an off-putting draw in stall 20.

We saw twice on Thursday that high draws are no bar to success over this trip, and the fact that jockeys wanted to converge on the far rail merely enhanced the chances of those drawn high as they were able to race up the centre of the course and that certainly changes the landscape.

When everyone rides to their draw, it is hard for those drawn very high to win, but the desire to head en masse for the supposed faster strip merely serves to level the field.

It’s possible that normality will return here, but if they track across then Coul Angel will enjoy a clear path and is capable of denying his mark, which looks very fair given subsequent wins for the pair mentioned that were behind him last time.

Recommended:

Persica 1.50 York – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (general – 4 places)

Mythical Bay 2.25 York – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365; 10/1 general – 5 places)

Ten Bob Tony 3.00 York – 1pt win @ 13/2 (general)

Furthur 3.35 York – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (general – 5 places)

Square Necker 3.35 York – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365 – 6 places; 14/1 Hills 5pl)

Coul Angel 4.10 York – 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet365; 11/1 Hills)