Ascot Saturday

12.55 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 1)

1m 7f 209yd

With no rain lately, we have the unusual scenario of Champions Day taking place on good or good to firm ground, and the last time that happened was 2016. The stalls are - unusually for Ascot except for this fixture - on the far rail in the straight, and the combination is expected to sway any draw bias in favour of low-drawn horses, although a mass migration to the far rail means that hold-up horses drawn low might be the most inconvenienced and, if you fancy one to come from off the pace, those drawn centre to high shouldn’t be at much of a disadvantage.

The draw is least likely to be an issue in the Long Distance Cup and it’s hard to see beyond Trawlerman, who was beaten in the race last year but had been off since the Gold Cup and looked a little rusty. This year, he was too good for Illinois and Sweet William in the Gold Cup and added the Lonsdale Cup at York in August, so fitness is no concern.

Sweet William was runner-up in this last year and was back to winning ways in the Doncaster Cup, so is the obvious one to chase his stablemate home. Al Qareem will ensure a fair pace but has been unplaced when trying two miles (form figures 50544) in the past and is best at shorter, and Stay True didn’t get home having travelled best in the St Leger, so the forecast looks the bet to have in the race.

1.30 Qipco British Champions Day Two-year-old Conditions Stakes 6f

A new race on the card and the Mill Reef winner Words Of Truth stands out on form. I think the horse he beat at Newbury is a Group 1 performer in the making and, although it was soft there, the selection has winning form on quick ground, including here, and has got what looks an excellent draw in stall three.

Not obviously well drawn (depending on what the going stick says in the morning), but improving all the time is Gentle George, who has belied a modest pedigree by winning his last two, with a battling win at Haydock last time suggesting he will relish the trip at this more demanding track. Stall 12 puts him in the centre of the track and he has the speed to track over if needed, so looks the best each-way alternative.

2.05 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The runners ended up on the far side last year, but the high numbers were still favoured, but the last time this race was run on fast ground the last four to finish were the four drawn highest, and that is worth remembering. I’d also point out that the three drawn lowest here are likely to be in rear early and it will be hard to make ground if the field go far side as a group, which puts me off that trio.

Lazzat has the best piece of form having won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over course and distance in the summer and, while he’s been below that form since, he probably found the six and a half furlongs of the Maurice de Gheest stretching him under an aggressive ride and fared best of those who raced on the unfavoured centre/far side group in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

The decision to stay in the centre that day backfired, with the winner and placed horses all racing close to the stands’ rail, and Lazzat is much better than that formline suggests.

Kind Of Blue would be the pick if going stick and/or early results suggest that the high numbers are an advantage, but my reading of things at the moment causes me to favour low-to-middle numbers.

2.45 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 3f 211yd

Wide draws are often considered to be a disadvantage here, but results show the opposite is the case, and the 2016 running saw stall 11 beat stall 12 in a 13-runner race. Since then, the winner has come from 8, 6, 11, 9, 9, 10, 10 and 11 in a race where the maximum field has been 14.

Estrange is a smashing filly who has stall 1 to overcome and has shown her best form on good or softer ground. She might get away with it, but the stats are against her, while Kalpana needs to bounce back from a below-par effort in the ‘Arc’. She took this last year, and can win if none the worse for her Longchamp run but that is a niggling concern.

Like Kalpana, Latakia is Juddmonte-owned and it’s intriguing that Francis-Henri Graffard runs her here, after her defeat trying a mile and three-quarters in the Prix de Royallieu.

She has plenty to find on the figures, but impressed on good ground over this trip in the Prix de Pomone at Deauville and, as a filly who didn’t race as a juvenile, she remains open to improvement. She didn’t look at home on soft ground at Longchamp and all her previous efforts were on a quicker surface. She’s drawn out wide and is largely ignored in the betting, but has the right conditions and is capable of surprising here.

3.25 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) 1m

Those with the best Ascot credentials are drawn high, but there is no pace amongst them, which complicates things here. Fallen Angel will make the running in the centre with Marvelman and The Lion In Winter possible pace angles from the low draws and it would be no surprise to see the far side dominate.

Docklands loves Ascot, however, and has form figures of 1132221 to prove it. Despite his Queen Anne win over course and distance, he’s still not considered an elite miler by many, and will start at double figure odds again in all likelihood.

It’s unlikely that Docklands will be scuppered by the draw given his run style, although that applies to the likes of Rosallion, Field Of Gold and Never So Brave as well. As a result, it’s not a race to go overboard about from a betting perspective, for all it promises to be a tremendous spectacle, and it’s small stakes only for me.

4.05 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 1f 212yd

Calandagan has been called a few names since a slow start cost him victory in this race 12 months ago, but Mickael Barzalona has learned how to ride the gelding this season and he cannot be crabbed for impressive wins in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the King George on his last two starts.

Campaigned at a mile and a half this term, he seems to retain all of his speed, and the drop in trip in a well-run race ought to be no trouble at all. Timing is crucial, and Barzalona has always had ice in his veins, so I trust him to drop Calandagan’s head in front on the line.

I’ve got nothing negative to say about Delacroix and Ombudsman, who have the form to make this a classic renewal, but I’ve always had a lot of faith in Calandagan and he’s an exceptional talent.

4.40 Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) 1m

A maximum field makes the finale tricky. Hafeet Alain made all to win by a wide margin at Sandown last time and that took his lifetime record in 1m turf handicaps to a remarkable 141242114441.

He’s effective on all ground and is one of very few front-runners in this field, despite its size. A wide draw is an unknown at the time of writing, but won’t be by race time and the booking of the excellent Ashley Lewis to help offset a rise in the weights looks a positive, with Lewis riding very intelligently for the Gary and Josh Moore team this season.

Recommended

Trawlerman/Sweet William 12.55 Ascot – 1pt Exacta

Lazzat 2.05 Ascot - 2pts win @ 9/2 (Hills; 7/2 general)

Latakia 2.45 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Hills ¼ odds 3 places; 18/1 Sky Bet 4 places)

Calandagan 4.05 Ascot - 2pts win @ 11/4 (general)

Hafeet Alain 4.40 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Hills, 5 places; 33/1 general)