Newmarket Saturday

1.22 British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Jersey Lily’ Fillies’ Nursery 7f

The stalls are in the centre here but my feeling - based on previous runnings with that set-up - is that the high-drawn horses could have an edge, with the key being the presence of genuine pace amongst those near the stands rail.

That looks to be the case here, with Tie A Navyribbon looking the one to tow the field along from stall 10. That is good news for favourite Sierra Belle, who is expected to sit on that one’s tail, but it’s also a perfect set-up for the more patiently ridden Fire Thunder, who finished best of all when beaten a nose in a course-and-distance nursery last time.

That race, won by Kodi Bear Light, wasn’t strongly run and Fire Thunder did well to make up so much ground in the latter part of the race having been settled off the pace.

Fire Thunder will benefit from a strong gallop at this distance, having also shaped well despite finding six furlongs too sharp here on her nursery bow, and she looks a winner waiting to happen from the same mark she ran off last time.

That form was franked when third-placed Eabha was second in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, while she and the winner both ran creditably in the British EBF £100,000 2-y-o Fillies’ Series Final at Goodwood the other day. I think her form is more robust than that of Sierra Belle, and I would have put her, rather than the Juddmonte filly, at the head of the market.

1.55 Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m

The Royal Lodge lacks a standout performer but I was very impressed by the way Burning Up came clear with Hands To Yourself in a mile novice at Haydock last time and I think that pair would have stamped their authority more impressively but for the modest gallop which has led to a conservative framing of the form, a view bolstered by the victory of well-beaten fourth Zarak Crown at Ayr last week.

Karl Burke’s colt is open to further improvement and already looks ready for a crack at pattern company. He’s taken to progress past the likes of Haffner and Quest For Stars. It’s worth noting that Hands To Yourself runs in a maiden later on the card and if you take the view that the Haydock form is underrated, as I do, then a double on the pair makes plenty of sense.

2.27 Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The drop to six furlongs is not ideal but Sun Goddess continues to thrive on a busy schedule and looks by far the likeliest winner of a strong Cheveley Park Stakes.

She was beaten by Libertango in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and while that filly has improved again to take the Lowther Stakes, Sun Goddess has also advanced her form in better company still, winning over the Lowther course and distance at York in a faster time than Libertango and carrying more weight into the bargain.

She has since added the Moyglare Stud Stakes to her tally having also tasted Group 1 success against the boys in the Phoenix Stakes, where she had Carry The Flag five and a half lengths back in fourth.

Senorita Bonita is the other Group 1 winner in the field, also beating colts in the Prix Morny last time, where Carry The Flag was second, four lengths behind her.

That form line suggests that Sun Goddess has her measure. In short, Libertango and Senorita Bonita are good enough to win a race of this nature, so it should be a race to savour, but Sun Goddess ought to prove too strong if getting away on terms.

3.00 Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

A downright disappointing renewal of the Middle Park compared to the quality of the Cheveley Park and Push The Boat Out ought to be a bit shorter than he is given how far he’s come in a short spell.

Winner of a strong maiden at the Curragh on debut (Marco Polo second, beaten a length and a quarter) last month, Michael O’Callaghan’s colt progressed to win the Round Tower Stakes where he took the scalp of the highly regarded Great Barrier Reef despite having to switch around Livenka to deliver his challenge.

He is open to further improvement and won’t mind the return to quicker ground, so makes plenty of appeal.

3.40 Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) 1m 1f

There is often a draw bias in the Cambridgeshire despite the nine-furlong trip and the last two winners have raced prominently close to the far rail. That bias can be reversed depending on going and pace set-up but, with the likely leaders positioned in low-to-middle stalls, I believe that a far-side draw will again be an advantage.

I respect the chances of both Spellmaster and Salam Dubawi from stalls three and four but the main vote goes to Alcarath, who has the rail draw in one.

Alcarath needed the run when a respectable fifth over course and distance on his return at the Guineas Meeting but has stepped up with each of three runs since, his last two seeing him lose out narrowly in a pair of mile-and-a-quarter handicaps at Sandown and his stamina for that trip is a positive against milers here.

He was run down in the dying strides by an unexposed three-year-old at Sandown four weeks ago and that form is already working out with Tribal Chief (sixth there) ending a losing run in some style at Goodwood during the week.

Alcarath has the tactical speed needed to take advantage of his good pitch and the fitting of cheekpieces looks a positive. Trainer Alan King has saddled three winners from the last 10 handicappers he has fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, with those wins coming at 14/1, 6/1 and 9/2, producing a profit on all such runners of £175 to a tenner stake at SP.

Haydock Saturday

1.35 William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap 7f 212yd

With a warmish day forecast, the ground at Haydock should tighten up a little and yielding going is the key to Godwinson. Jack Channon’s gelding has been disappointing this season but all his runs have come on a quick surface.

He’s very much a Goldilocks horse, with handicap form figures on good or faster turf which read 00000 while he’s been unsighted in two starts on soft or heavy.

On the other hand, he has much more impressive figures on ground described as good to soft of 124115 improving to 11 over a mile with the latter of those wins coming in last year’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.

Haydock’s clerk has predicted that the ground will ride good to soft here and that makes Godwinson a bet.

2.10 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap 5f

Trilby has a reputation as a heavy-ground specialist but his good strike rate in the mud is due to others’ failings, while he’s effective on any turf going.

He’s best away from big fields and, although he stays six furlongs, his best efforts have come over five furlongs and his record over the last couple of years in five-furlong events of 12 or fewer runners reads: 11424 261112 with the only blip coming in a blanket finish at Beverley when beaten just over a length and a half.

He’s proven better than ever this summer, has yet to finish out of the first two in four runs over course and distance and is as game as a pebble in a finish.

Trilby may have most to fear from Rhythm N’ Hooves, although King Of Light would be a danger should the stands side be favoured. The stalls are on the inside, though, and the stands-side bias that was a feature of last season’s Sprint Cup is unlikely to be repeated as a result.

Recommended

Fire Thunder 1.22 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (general – Bet365 4 places)

Burning Up 1.55 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral; 11/4 general)

Push The Boat Out 3.00 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 7/2 (general)

Alcarath 3.40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general 5 places; PriceUp – 6 pl)

Godwinson 1.35 Haydock – 1pt win @ 10/1 (general)

Trilby 2.10 Haydock – 1pt win @ 11/2 (general)