Ascot Saturday
12.55 Qatar Racing British Champions Day Two-year-old Stakes 6f
There are questions over Middle Park flop Inner City Blues and Dewhurst winner Arapaho Gold, whose stable has sent out 64 consecutive losers up to the start of racing on Friday (cue a Michael Dods double at Redcar for an ironic twist), leaving the teak-tough Night In Vegas as the safest bet in the field.
It’s hard to imagine the Lucky Vega colt, who has won a trio of valuable sales races, will be out of the frame and he is an each-way price at the time of writing.
1.30 Qatar Racing British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 1) 2m
In many ways this race revolves around Prix du Cadran winner Caballo De Mar, who battled on bravely to win over two and a half miles at Longchamp, but endured a hard race in doing so.
He seems transformed by the fitting of a tongue tie and blinkers having virtually pulled up in the Gold Cup here earlier in the season.
That said, it’s hard not to forget the way he weakened quickly (was in a clear third a furlong out but failed to beat a rival and literally wobbled across the line before requiring treatment for heat stress).
Perhaps his Royal Ascot episode was a one-off, but he did stop fairly quickly in the Lonsdale Cup at York having looked likely to win early in the straight, and I’m not convinced that he’s problem free just yet.
Even if he does run close to form here, he may struggle to get the better of the progressive Highwayman, who was no less impressive in winning the St Leger than Scandinavia was 12 months earlier, and he looks a top-notch stayer in the making for the impressive Joseph O’Brien outfit.
Highwayman has come a long way in a short time, winning his maiden as recently as July, but his improvement in his last two starts has been immense, and there is no reason to think he’s reached his limit just yet.
2.05 Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f
Almeraq’s claims are obvious and I won’t argue against them as such, but there is little doubt that his margin of victory at Haydock last time was exacerbated by the testing conditions and I think he’s better judged on his win here in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, where he beat Satono Reve by a nose.
That is still top-class form, and entitles him to be favourite here, but suggests that his current odds are a little skinny. The July Cup showed us that the apparent order of merit is always open to being shuffled and it’s worth remembering that this contest has thrown up recent winners at odds of 28/1, 33/1, 40/1 and 200/1, with Powerful Glory’s win 12 months ago as hard to explain now as it was at the time.
Poatan is a horse who needs to improve if he’s to make an impact at this level but he’s a proper sprinter on looks and is my idea of one who will make a huge impact next year when fully mature. This may come a little soon for him but he has been shaping up really well this season aside from a forgivable effort when poorly positioned at York.
He finished strongly to be second in the Scurry Stakes at Sandown in the summer and won a handicap on his second attempt when scoring with ease over five furlongs at Haydock last time. Five furlongs on soft ground at Haydock is a very different test to six on a sound surface at Ascot, but I believe that Poatan won despite – not because of – conditions at Haydock.
He had to race away from the stands rail initially there, but travelled powerfully and looked a class above his rivals while again giving the impression that he will progress again returned to six furlongs.
Admittedly, Poatan’s latest win came off a mark of 97, which puts this rise in class in perspective, but I believe we’re just scratching the surface with him, and top-class sprinters often take more time to reach their peak than middle-distance stars, with plenty of Group 1-winning sprinters over the years graduating from handicaps.
The great Battaash was beaten in a handicap off 96 before showing what he could do, and Reverence, one of my all-time favourites, tasted defeat from a mark of 73 before becoming Champion Sprinter as a five-year-old.
Perhaps it’s the romantic in me that sees echoes of those champions in Poatan, but I believe he’s a gelding with significant untapped potential and one who has the raw ability to upstage his rivals here.
2.40 Qatar Racing British
Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 4f
Friday’s showers have eased the going officially, but it will be drying again on the day and I think it will ride on the quick side of good.
That won’t be a worry for Kalpana, who will take the beating if able to escape a tricky draw on the inside rail, but that and the fact she had a hard race in the ‘Arc’ means I’d prefer to play each-way with Johanna Walsh whose only disappointment came on soft ground that she probably doesn’t handle at York last time.
She was unlucky not to win the Ribblesdale over course and distance in June and turned the tables with the runner-up when landing the Irish Oaks on her next start. I have no trouble putting a line through her Yorkshire Oaks run behind Kalpana and she can give the favourite plenty to think about if bouncing back as expected.
3.20 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qatar Racing)
(Group 1) 1m
Most of the runners have yet to win a Group 1 over a mile and this isn’t the race to start, as a rule. Of those that have, only one is unbeaten over the trip and that suggests that Rayif has been a tad overlooked after wins in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains and the Prix Jacques Le Marois, where he beat Zeus Olympios and More Thunder with a strong late run on good to firm ground.
It’s often assumed that the top French horses want soft ground but that is a lazy assumption and blown out of the water by the likes of Calandagan and this son of Sea The Moon.
I like the way Rayif has been campaigned this season, with this race clearly a prime target in a season where his races have been spaced a couple of months apart, ensuring he’s fresher than most in the autumn.
His sole defeat this term was when finding the seven furlongs of the Prix Jean Prat too sharp and a straight mile clearly suits, with his Jacques Le Marois win a clear career best.
He will relish Ascot and has the same draw as last year’s shock winner Cicero’s Gift, which could be an advantage given the track management at Ascot (far side of the track being used for this meeting, with the turf on the far rail untouched since the summer).
4.00 Qatar Racing Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2f
Probably the least appealing betting race of the day for all it is the most intriguing of the championship contests, and while I’ve been with Calandagan on the majority of his runs in the UK, I don’t think he is the same horse he was last year.
It’s possible to argue that he ran close to form when second to Kalpana in the King George, but I think that race has been overrated (Timeform’s ratings suggest both Kalpana and Lambourn put up clear career bests at Ascot and I find it easier to understand the result by believing they merely ran to previous form and others underperformed on the day).
Ombudsman would be the obvious beneficiary of a below-par Calandagan, but I feel that Oisin Murphy holds the key and if he can dictate the pace of the race proper on Bay City Roller, then he can steal the race.
He ran a blinder in the Arc from a draw than demanded he worked hard early, and he showed enough pace there to suggest he would cope with the drop to a stiff 10 furlongs here.
4.35 Balmoral Handicap
(Sponsored by Qatar Racing) 1m
As mentioned earlier, the usual draw bias was turned on its head in the straight mile races last year, and the turf on the far rail is well protected in the autumn. High draws are not a negative but - on quick ground at least - those drawn low aren’t disadvantaged (the pair who dead heated for second in this last year were drawn 1 and 2, as were the first and second in the QEII) and that shapes some of my thinking in a tricky handicap.
Whip Cracker has won only twice in his career but has shown useful form in defeat and he did get his head in front at Chester on his penultimate start before finding seven furlongs in listed company too sharp at Newbury last time.
He’s drawn in stall 2 and looks sure to give a good account of himself back at a mile. I’d also not be surprised to see a big run from Excellent Believe, who has been unlucky not to finish closer in two starts for Stephen Thorne having joined from Jack Channon.
Highwayman 1.30 Ascot – 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (general)
Poatan 2.05 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365; 20/1 general – 4 places)
Johanna Walsh 2.40 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365; 6/1 general – 4 places)
Rayif 3.20 Ascot – 1pt win @ 11/2 (general)
Bay City Roller 4.00 Ascot – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Hills; 6/1 Paddy Power, SkyBet)
Whip Cracker 4.35 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365; 25/1 general – 5 places)