Warwick Saturday

2.25 Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 5f

The turnout for one or two of Warwick’s races on a big day for the track has been a little disappointing, but not so for this Grade 2, which looks hugely competitive on paper.

Adrimel heads the market at this stage, and while I was initially put off by the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time, it has to be said that Tom Lacey has an excellent record when reaching for the headgear, so perhaps it’s not the red flag it looks.

Adrimel would probably have beaten Make Me A Believer had the latter stood up in a point at Ballyarthur, but that’s hardly conclusive evidence of their current merit, and the Pipe horse has found only the exciting Bear Ghylls too strong under rules. That came at Lingfield, and the first three have all won since, so Make Me A Believer must be considered, especially as he seems to be improving with each start. I’d make him favourite here based on collateral form, although there are others open to improvement, and it’s not an easy race to be adamant about.

3.00 McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Chase (Grade 3) 3m 5f 54yds

Catterick’s loss is Warwick’s gain, as the cancellation of the North Yorkshire Grand National on Thursday means an extra three runners in what would otherwise have been a rather paltry turnout for the Classic Chase – that in itself partially a result of the proximity of the rearranged Welsh Grand National. I hope you’re keeping up.

Le Breuil is one of the trio rerouted from the Catterick race, and he bids to cement his claims to a place in the Grand National at Aintree. Winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2019, he has drawn a blank since, with his mark sliding to 140 as a result. He shaped very well when third in the Becher Chase at Aintree in December, travelling and jumping really well, but failing to get home from the final fence.

Le Breuil has had his wind tinkered with since Aintree, and while a repeat of his breathing problem would be a negative here, he did see out the testing four miles well at Cheltenham as a novice, and stamina is not an issue. He was a running-on fifth in this contest last year when the worst sufferer of a standing start, that in turn leading to him being consistently short of room as he tried to improve his place.

The one argument against him is that if he was likely to win this Grade 3 prize, why was his trainer content to let him run at Catterick? That’s an easy question to answer in that the only true goal for Le Breuil is a place at Aintree, and to give himself a chance of making the field, he needs to win a race to go up in the handicap. This might be a shinier prize that the North Yorkshire Grand National, but a win’s a win, for a’ that, as Rabbie Burns might say if he was framing the Aintree weights.

The only other horse I would seriously consider here is Notachance. Alan King has won this twice in the recent past, and cites Warwick as his favourite course, so you can be sure he’s had this race in mind for the seven-year-old for months. In that case, a gap since winning at Bangor in November is not a concern, and he has the perfect profile for a race like this.

I note that there is a big Trifecta rollover to this race, and I would include both horses in a bid for a significant payout.

3.35 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) 3m 1f

This particular race has thrown up better clues for the Pertemps Final itself than most of the races which make up the series in Britain, although it’s often the placed horses here which pay to follow. Holywell and Sire Du Berlais were both eye-catching losers here before winning in March, and Tobefair beaten only by the latter having used this race as a stepping stone on more than one occasion.

This looks a decent renewal with a number of promising horses open to improvement after just a smattering of handicap runs. Come On Teddy won a 3m handicap at Cheltenham last time by 5½l from On The Blind Side, and with the runner-up filling the same spot in the Relkeel Hurdle last time, that form looks very solid. The Tom George runner probably deserves to head a competitive market.

Imperial Alcazar had very strong form as a novice, including when awarded a listed hurdle at Cheltenham last January, and he should progress again, so also needs to go on the shortlist, as does David Pipe’s Kepagge, who is thoroughly unexposed, and was very weak in the market when a creditable fourth to Stimulating Song in a strong intermediate handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

All of these are worthy contenders, but none of them need to win to enhance their claims in the final, whereas The Captains Inn will need no less than a win here if he’s to achieve a rating which will get him into the race in March.

The Captains Inn is one of two interesting runners from Ben Pauling’s yard, and while both ran poorly last time, so did most of the Pauling runners at the time. It’s not been an easy couple of seasons for Pauling since hitting the big time with a brace of Cheltenham Festival winners, but the yard has finally found a consistent spell of success, and four winners from his last five runners in handicaps is evidence that Ben has turned a significant corner.

The Captains Inn was a highly regarded novice who was travelling well when going wrong in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in 2019, and he was having his first run since when well beaten at Chepstow in December. There was no obvious promise in that run, but he was badly in need of it, and is likely to improve markedly. Given how good he looked as a young horse, I’m prepared to risk him off what could be a lenient mark of 127.

Market Rasen Saturday

2.05 Mansionbet Handicap Hurdle 2m 125yds

The obvious one here is Edwardstone, who plenty of good judges fancied for the Supreme last season, and while he came up short at Cheltenham, he appears well treated in this company having run so well in the Greatwood there in November. He unseated on his chase debut, but Market Rasen will suit back over hurdles and he should have no excuses.

Another horse who will be suited by the track, though, is Rowland Ward, and he may be worth a small bet at much bigger odds for all he appears to have a bit to prove.

Rowland Ward won well in a Kempton juvenile in December 2019, and traded odds-on in the run when tackling Grade 2 company in the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham, but simply didn’t get up the hill. He did the same in a handicap there last month having been placed at Huntingdon prior to that, and it seems significant that his best runs have come on flat, right-handed tracks. The return to a venue which ought to favour his style should give him a chance here, and with a 2lb drop since a creditable return, he’s likely to be thereabouts.

Recommended

Rowland Ward 2.05 Market Rasen – 1pt win @ 9/1 (general)

Le Breuil 3.00 Warwick – 2pts win @ 6/1 (general)

The Captains Inn 3.35 Warwick – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Hills, Boyles – 4 places)

Winner

Rory tipped Master Tommytucker @ 2/1 last week