NEWBURY SATURDAY

13.50 SHALAA CARNARVON STAKES (LISTED) 6F

A few of these fall into the twilight zone – too highly tried for handicaps, and seemingly not good enough to win in pattern company, but that certainly isn’t true of Red Impression. She really ought to have won a competitive listed race at Chelmsford last time, but she was soon left poorly placed after being taken back from her wide draw, and did extremely well to throw down a big challenge before giving best in a tight finish behind Isaan Queen.

Some will worry about her lack of turf experience, but she is trained by someone who clearly takes a view that artificial surfaces are more forgiving for young horses learning their trade, and Roger Charlton is a handler with a patient approach which allows such a strategy to work. Red Impression looks well up to this test already, and should have plenty more to offer, with an entry in the Commonwealth Cup not made on a whim.

14.25 AL RAYYAN STAKES (ASTON PARK) (GROUP 3) 1M 4F

It’s rather strange that Crystal Ocean should be receiving weight here, but that is what you get with a fixed penalty system. A last gasp defeat in the King George at Ascot means that Sir Michael Stoute’s top-notcher avoids any penalty for last year’s exploits while Raymond Tusk has to concede weight because of winning a weak Group 2 in Milan last autumn.

I do like the latter horse, and think he will do well over further this year, possibly in a race like the Goodwood Cup, but his task is thrown into sharp focus here, and he will do well do to get the favourite into top gear given the difference in their relative ratings.

15.00 AL ZUBARAH LONDON GOLD CUP HANDICAP 1M 2F

This handicap has proved a remarkable stepping stone for pattern performers in recent years, with four of the last five winners winning at Group 3 level or higher subsequently; Cannock Chase and Time Test going straight on to Group 3 success in the Tercentenary (now Hampton Court) Stakes at Royal Ascot, Defoe taking the Glasgow Stakes and Geoffrey Freer on his next two starts, and Communique taking the Jockey Club Stakes recently to add to last year’s success.

The only horse who didn’t do so in that timeframe was Imperial Aviator, who ran in the Prix du Jockey Club on his next start. Going back a little further, the 2010 running produced a Melbourne Cup and Dubai World Cup winner in Green Moon and Monterosso, the 2011 winner Al Kazeem went on to collect four wins at the highest level in Britain and Ireland, and the following year produced the ill-fated Hardwicke Stakes hero Thomas Chippendale.

If there is a star in this year’s field, it’s likely to be Solid Stone, who is one of several entered in the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot next month, and who represents the same connections of Cannock Chase, and who beat Forest Of Dean as a juvenile and War Tiger on his return at Newmarket. He is the type of improving colt that Sir Michael Stoute has done so well with over the years, never afraid to put them in handicaps even when he believes they will become top-class in time, and that route has proved very profitable for the veteran Newmarket handler over the years.

Forest Of Dean has no fancy entries, but has improved this year, and won well in what appeared a competitive handicap at Doncaster last time, so isn’t without a chance of revenge, although his more open campaign means he’s now 2lb worse off with his old rival, and that demonstrates why a light campaign is often crucial when it comes to winning big handicaps – the more you run good horses, the more the handicapper has a chance to punish them.

I respect both of the above, as well as Windsor winner Sinjaari, but they occupy the first three places in the market, and it’s hard to get rich by finding favourites, so I’m looking further afield for some value.

Two who I like at bigger prices are Korcho and Htilominlo, the former a winner at Windsor, like Sinjaari, but who made harder work of it and is a bigger price as a result. There was more to that win that the bare result, though, and Korcho seemed unsuited by the sharp track, losing his pitch before the turn into the straight but staying on powerfully under pressure to get up close home in a solid race.

The form has worked out with fourth-placed Gentle Look a winner of a handicap next time, and fifth home The Pink’n running well to be third at Salisbury despite meeting trouble in the run. The runner-up in that race was Htlilominlo, who filled the same spot in a similar event at Goodwood next time, when he and a well-regarded rival pulled well clear of the field in a race not run to suit.

Korcho represents the yard which produced the Dante winner and is in great form at present, and he will appreciate the stiffer track at Newbury, so appeals as being better value than one or two with similar profiles.

I’m going to save Htilominlo for another occasion, with historical connections. He represents the same connections as Gawdapalin, who was unplaced in this a few years ago before going on to win a three-year-old handicap on Derby day at Epsom, a race Sylvester Kirk always seems to set one aside for. I’d not be surprise to see this horse, who has clearly improved for the step up to one and a quarter miles, find this a bit too hot before heading to Epsom to repeat the same feat. He’s certainly one to keep on side at the right level.

15.40 AL SHAQAB LOCKINGE STAKES (GROUP 1) 1M

I find it very hard to side with Le Brivido in this despite his position at the head of the market, and while he won the Jersey Stakes in impressive style, there are three things about that race which need to be considered to put the former-French horse’s achievement in contest.

Firstly, that was two years ago, and he’s been well below form in two starts since; secondly, however much you may have been impressed (and I was), the Jersey is not, and never has been, a good race. It’s cachet is derived from the meeting at which it’s run, and while it’s usually a great spectacle, it’s just an age-restricted Group 3 at the end of the day.

Finally, it’s a seven-furlong event, and while Le Brivido was just touched off in the French Guineas before his Ascot win for André Fabre, he’s not absolutely guaranteed to stay a stiff mile, and if he was Fabre would have gone for the more prestigious St James’s Palace Stakes rather than the middle-of-the-road Jersey.

GLADNESS UPGRADE

On the positive side, this is a division ripe for plundering given the results of last year, and Le Brivido did shape much better than the result when making his debut for Aidan O’Brien in the Gladness Stakes. Mind you, he’d have needed to.

Laurens is the Group 1 performer hiding in plain sight here, her wins in the Prix de Diane, the Matron Stakes and the Sun Chariot show that she has the class to dominate this division, and she also has the physical scope to improve again as a four-year-old, which she needs to, admittedly.

She was below form taking on the colts and older horses in the QE II on her final start, but she simply looked over the top at Ascot, and should be judged on her previous efforts. She has Ostilio to worry about in terms of pace here, but that rival should help give her a lead in the early stages, and the way he folded on his return suggests he won’t be a problem to Karl Burke’s filly at the business end.

It’s possible that low draws will be favoured, and I fear Beat The Bank from the lowest draw, but that rival has to prove he can repeat his best form in Group 1 company, and that sways things in favour of the filly, to whom he must concede the 3lb sex allowance.

RECOMMENDED

RED IMPRESSION 13.50: Newbury – 1pt win @ 4/1 (SkyBet, 888Sport)

KORCHO: 15.00 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)

LAURENS: 15.40 Newbury – 2pts win @ 9/2 (general)